Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. fattfattygavgav
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Morning All,

    1 FT, 0.2 ITB

    Ryan
    Vert, Tarki, Naughton
    Sterling, Son, Arnie, Willian
    Kane (c), Jesus, Vardy

    Subs - Smalling, Lowton, King

    A. Willian -> Zaha
    B. Naughton/Lowton -> TAA
    C. Vardy and Willian -> Salah and j Ayew -4

    Thanks

    1. Boholad
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I think C, if you are trying to protect a lead

  2. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Karius, Clyne, Lovren, VVD, Robbo, TAA, Gini, Milner, Mo, Bobby, Lallana

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Source?

    2. _Gunner
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Source?

    3. Scotty B
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Aaron @FPL dugout

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        No ings, interesting

    4. lespaul
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      This looks correct

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Scotty B posting something worthwhile.

        *faints*

    5. Bartowski
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Where is TAA playing in this line up?

      1. Fresh_From_Desh
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Midfield

  3. Rhodes your boat
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Ddg and Vardy to

    A) karius and bobby
    B) Hennessy and laca

    For -4

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A

  4. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Robertson vs PVA. Kind of think Robertson is the better option this week, but my rival (5 pts ahead) has him, too, so was looking at PVA initially as a differential, but with 6 players (including captain) already as differentials, shall I just get Robertson?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

  5. Evasivo
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on the below guys?

    A) DDG>Fabianski
    B) Tarkowski>Cresswell
    C) DDG & Lingard > Fabianski & Zaha (-4)

    Current team:
    DDG
    Tarkowski Otamendi Lowton
    Salah(C) Son Gudmun Sterling(vc)
    Vardy Kane J.Ayew

    Ryan Lingard Dunk Morgan 1FT £0.4itb

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      C

  6. The Royal Robin
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Are the Heaton rumours true? Unfair on Pope if they are.

    1. Jafalad
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Pope has been ff player of the year. Hero.

    2. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      I hope it's true tbh

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Why?

      It’s the last game of the season and they have nothing to play for.

      Southgate has already selected the England squad so if he’s in, he’s in already.

    4. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Where are the rumours from? I haven't actually seen them anywhere except in the team news here.

  7. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Best option

    A) RLC
    B) McArthur
    C) Ayew -4

    1. Robin Cook
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A for me

  8. Wednesday1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Chasing down a 20 point gap to top of ML so don’t really want to go minus points. Team as follows

    Fabianski
    Vertonghen, Naughton, Dummett
    Sterling, Eriksen, Arnautovic, Pogba
    Jesus, Kane, Ayew

    Dubravska, Cedric, Smalling, Kenedy

    Was thinking of doing Pogba > Martial

    Any thoughts or suggestions? Worried about not having Salah but need a hit or two to get him in

    Cheers

  9. Bleach †
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Smalling to Robetson -4?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Yup

    2. Fred54
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      TAA woud be a better choice, if he starts he on the wing so is OoP.

    3. Bubbles1985
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Tempted by this myself but not sure if a hit is worth it for a defender??

  10. ooooo
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Any transfer worth a -4 here? 0,6mil itb
    Ryan
    Vert Lowton Long
    Salah Sterling Son Zaha
    Kane Jesus Ayew

    DDG Smalling Chilwell L.Cook

  11. Ohh1454
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    47 points behind in ml . He has Salah while I don't .
    Should I go without him or do sterling > Salah (-4) ?
    He doesn't have sterling

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      How do you expect to catch him with the same player?

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Captain Sterling

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Taking hits to get the same player as him isn’t going to help catching him. He may be too far ahead to be honest, but you’re only going to have a chance if you have a differential like Sterling who he does have.

  12. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Foster
    TAA Vert Alonso
    Shaqiri Ramsey Eriksen Sterling
    Kane Jesus J Ayew

    Elliot Lowton Lingard Kompany

    1FT, 0.0M ITB

    Which one please folks?

    A Jesus > Firmino (Kane (c)
    B Elliot > Adrian (Kane (c)
    C Alonso & Eriksen > Bailly & Salah (c)
    D Eriksen & Sterling > Salah (c) & Martial
    E Elliot & Jesus > Romero & Firmino(c)

    1. Robe Wan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B

  13. Robe Wan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Is De Gea to romero sensible?

    Sigh. Keeper transfer on last day

    1. Fresh_From_Desh
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Whos ur sub keeper?

      1. JD @JDCochran2
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Hennessey

        1. ENZO SZN™
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Just play Hen

  14. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Gtg? No hits taken after all. Ajy advice?

    Karius
    Alonso,Naughton,Lowton,Dunk
    Son,Sane,Sterling,Arnie
    Kane(C),Jesus
    Sub:Ryan,Morgan,Kenedy,Barnes

  15. Jamesy0909
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Chances on Son likely to start?

  16. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    -12 done!

    DDG Morgan Willian and Vardy out
    Romero Dijk Salah Ayew in

    Feeling confident I’ll make points back, good luck everyone!

  17. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Really tough call..coming around to the idea of a 8 point hit

    Ddg -- ryan
    Alonso Lowton Maguire Smalling —- cedric
    son Pogba sterling Arnie — king
    kane jesus -- barnes

    A) Smalling + Maguire + Pogba >> Masauku + Long + Salah (-8)

    B) Smalling + Pogba + Barnes >> TAA + Zaha + Rashford (-8)

    C) Smalling + Sterling >> Masauku + Salah (-4) and start either Maguire/king

    1. grumpyman
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      C

  18. Muzzy87
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    In draft league - I own Laporte...should I bench him and play Fernandez?

    Thanks all! Been a great season!

  19. #FPLBhuna
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Taa(c)?

    1. K.F.C
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Could be a good punt!

  20. anish10
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Play Mustafi or double up with Burnley defenders??

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Play musti

  21. Udo
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Do we reckon Spurs are conceding? Need a replacement for Vert up to 5.4 making up 14 points.

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Probably

    2. Lilac Breasted Roller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      45% CS odds

      1. Lilac Breasted Roller
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        not worth a hit or a FT IMO

    3. Udo
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks lads,

  22. Visionaries
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Best move here? please and thank you

    Ddg
    PVA, Ota, Bavies, (Naughton)
    Salah, Sane, Eriksen, Mili
    Kane, Jesus, (Barnes)

    A Eriksen & Jesus > Sterling & Auba -4
    B Eriksen & Barnes > Rashford & Mkhi -4
    C King > Mccarthur

    1. bloomooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A, but like B as a punt

  23. Plagued by indecision
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    G2G or anything worth a hit? 0.2m ITB.

    Hennessey
    Otamendi / Tarkowski / Lowton / Davies
    Zaha / Sterling (c) / Ramsey / Eriksen
    Kane / Jesus

  24. Totalfootball
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Play -

    A) Long
    B) Laporte

  25. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    So Ozil has a back injury!
    On behalf of Arsenal fans I would like to say "Get Well Soon Ozil" 😉

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Water is wet

  26. Ojpsan1
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Willian or Gudmundsson?

  27. hspin
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    A or B:

    A: Sanchez, Willian -> Salah, Zaha

    B: Sanchez, Austin -> Zaha, Lacazette

    1. bloomooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A

  28. Kalou
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Best move plz experts!
    A.Alonso+son->Salah+taa
    B.Son+Hazard->Salah+Arnie

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A. I think Newc score last home game

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Not an expert, but I’d go A. Think Newcastle will score, but also expect Hazard to do very well against us.

      1. Kalou
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks guys

        1. Weeb Kakashi
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Mate... I was looking for this same question.

          What your doing A Or B?

  29. ILOVEBAPS
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    How long until pens down for the last time?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      3 hr 12 mins

      1. ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      3 hours

  30. Visionaries
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    What's all this ddg stuff, left out?

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Romero 100% plays today, Smalling won't play either

      1. Gentle_Turks
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Did Mourinho confirm that Smalling is out?