Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    A) Morgan to Robertson (-4)

    B) play double Burnley

    1. Plagued by indecision
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Double burn

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      B

  2. Dr. DOOM
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Son to zaha do it?

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      N

    2. MTPockets
        7 years, 6 months ago

        I have, to fund Lingard - Arnie

    3. Trippier Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Out of this lot, who to captain, only have a 9 point league lead. Any players here risks for not starting?

      Fabianski
      TAA, Masuaku, Otamendi
      Zaha, Arnautovic, Salah, Sterling
      Kane, Ayew, Jesus

      Thank you in advance for your valuable advice.

      1. RomeluAndJuliet
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Your rival will probably captian Salah or Kane, does he own both?

        1. Trippier Hazard
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Owns Kane only, but he's got BB and an injured Barnes, he can't get Salah without hits. So maybe captaining Kane the way to go, but I think Salah will outscore him. This decision may make or break my ML...

    4. Ligdon
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Jesus to Firming for -4 have no pool

      1. nevins84
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        No

    5. MUFASA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Last roll of the dice. Auba captain. Let's do this for Wenger!!!

      1. supersham
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Not a bad roll of the dice tbf

    6. The Tinkerman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Here we go... last team of the season (-4)

      Karius
      Vertonghen, Smalling, Lowton, Mawson
      Eriksen, Sterling, Gudmundsson
      Kane, Firmino, Jesus

      First sub Groß. Captain undecided.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Who's your backup for Smallish? And potentially Vertonghen?

        1. The Tinkerman
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Groß, Morgan would come in if they’re both out.

    7. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Could andy carroll start?

      1. BrockLanders
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Yes

      2. barracuda
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Hopefully Arnie gets a rest

    8. nevins84
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A)
      DDG&Kennedy OUT
      Adrian&Mata IN -4

      B)
      DDG&Perez OUT
      Adrian&Rashford IN

      1. nevins84
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        B is -4 also

      2. willl
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        B

    9. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Me: Mahrez - Alonso - Tarkowski - Ederson
      Rival: Auba - Fernandinho - Dummett - Fabianski (-24)

      Should I be worried at all?

    10. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Are DDG & Smalling both out???

      1. nevins84
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Yed

        1. BrockLanders
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Goodness. I've both

          1. Twisted Saltergater
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Use some of those points they've banked you 😉

          2. nevins84
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Jose mentioned it after last game...

    11. aleksios
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      a) Smalling to VVD for free
      b) Smalling to TAA and Vardy to Firm for a hit.

      Chasing 7 pts.

      Thanks guys.

      1. BrockLanders
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        A decent

    12. supersham
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Its been a roller coaster of a year. Best of luck in the final day everyone. What overall rank are you hoping for?

      1. BrockLanders
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        5000

      2. Waynoo
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        top 100k currently 101k

      3. Viper
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Top 1k but it's probably too far out of reach. Top 2k most likely

        1. supersham
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          fair play

      4. Tshelby
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Top 100K currently 88K but might take a risk on Jesus -> Aub (-4) but it could be the move too much

      5. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        24k and hoping top 20k now

      6. HamezMace
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks mate. Currently 33k, so hoping top 30k I guess, would be my best finish.

      7. LÖrKingMuch
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        50k but not sure I'll reach that, not one of my better seasons this, been interesting and fun though. Felt like there have been a lot more great options to choose from than previously.

    13. arndff_
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      A) DDG > Karius/Romero
      B) DDG, Lowton > Karius/Romero, PvA/Robertson
      C) Other

      DDG (Nordfelt)
      Alonso Vertonghen Lowton (Long Cedric)
      Salah Sterling Son Arnie (Kenedy)
      Kane Jesus J Ayew

      1FT

      1. Lionel Ronaldo
          7 years, 6 months ago

          B looks great, but only if you are comfortable with the hit.

      2. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Starters for Man Utd today according to Jose

        Romero
        Blind
        Bailly
        Rashford
        Martial
        Mata
        Carrick (C)

        1. K.F.C
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          cleanie chances not so good?

          1. Revival
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Reckon not, last day goalfest more likely

          2. RamaJama
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Whole defence and keeper shifted...

        2. fpl-newbie
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          What about Pogba?

          1. Revival
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Hard to say if he will be rested or not, wouldn't be suprised if Scott McTominay plays do

        3. rjcv177
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          took a punt on Martial, hope he repays the faith

        4. K.F.C
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Good Luck lads!

        5. Trippier Hazard
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Mourinho likely to sub Carrick early in 2nd half to give him send off

      3. mir
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Play double Burnely defence or Fernandino?

        1. Roy Rovers
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Double B

      4. Hart-ake
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Is TAA a better option in midfield?

        1. FPL_Hazards
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Is Alonso? Is Moses?

          1. Hart-ake
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Isn't TAA posted in centre midfield rather than wing back? i.e. not bombing forward as much.

        2. Viper
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          It can't hurt

        3. BrockLanders
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Not sure he'll start in midfield

        4. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I expect he’ll be back at right-back today

      5. FPL_Hazards
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Guys stop selling Son, his price will drop overnight costing me £0.1m

      6. Godot - Fashanu Zealand
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        A: Smalling -> PVA for a hit (this will make it -8 in total)
        B: Play Morgan

        1. Fantasy Gold
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          A

        2. BrockLanders
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          B

      7. Lone Wolf FPL
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        RP. Would you play:

        A) RLC
        B) McArthur
        C) Ayew -4 and cover rival (who is chasing 20pts with almost same team)

        1. Ligdon
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Ayew aint scorin 4 points

          1. Lone Wolf FPL
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            So..

            1. Lilac Breasted Roller
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              I see your point from trying to control all odds. If it's purely for ML reasons I'd be tempted to do it. But swansea hasn't been doing that great lately, they're out of form

              RLC

        2. Rash
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          A

        3. OldBenKenobi
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Just play A

        4. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          RLC best option for me, but ML situation obviously a factor. Which Ayew we talking about? Wouldn’t take a hit for Andre, and I probably wouldn’t for Jordan either, but I think that’s more justifiable

      8. trikster102
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Can't wait for this to be over, it's been by far the worst season I've had. My overall rank is 1,140,054. In the 5 seaons I've finished so far the worst I had was 214,585.

        I've decided that I'll go for a less obvious captain for this last game week and hope that Salah does nothing at all so I might gain a little ground. Think I'm going to go with McArthur.

      9. Jakobfju
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Okey so Im chasing in my ML and still have my TC-chip, Who do i pick out of Laca or jesus, Kane, arnie, salah, Zaha, Sterling

        1. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          If you’ve got significant ground to make up and don’t know if your rival will captain Kane or Salah, I’d go Sterling.

      10. mahone24
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        A/ Start Naughton (double BUR and 4 at the back - other def is Davies)
        B/ Start Lingard
        C/ Lingard + DDG -> Romero + Zaha (other keeper is Ryan) (-8)
        D/ Lingard -> Gundogan (-4)
        E/ Barnes -> Ayew (-4)

        Obviously tempted by C because its fun but imagine the smart move is A or B.

        1. mir
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Think I'm doing C

          1. mir
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Minus 4

      11. onetowatch
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Please help me choose guys

        PVA and martial

        Van dyk/Vertonghen and zaha

        Van dyk/Vertonghen/ Pva and Arnie

        Please choose one. This is stressing me out.

      12. aborg
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        My team is currently this:

        Ryan
        Robertson, Lowton, Vertonghen
        Son, Sterling, Zaha, Carroll, Salah (c)
        Jesus, Kane

        Bench: DeGea, Smalling, Chilwell, Barnes

        I am heading my ML with just 2 points but am disadvataged as rival has TC chip left to play.
        I already have done Zaha for Pogba but don't know if I should take a hit for a def since I don't have a playing player on the bench !

        People are mentioning to bring in PVA...is it worth starting my GW with -2 against my rival at this point or I should take the risk?

      13. tibollom
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        hi guys,not sure what to do, ml leader is only 3 pts ahead of me but has his BB left..is it worht taking hits to sort out my defence (monreal smalling)?

        my team:
        Ederson, Dubravka
        vert smalling monreal tomkins yedlin
        salah sane zaha arnie ritchie
        j ayew auba jesus

        1. OldBenKenobi
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          No way?!?! Just play Vert, Monreal, Tomkins

          1. tibollom
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            thanks mate... who should i captain?

            he has jesus sterling auba i think he may go with auba

            1. OldBenKenobi
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 6 months ago

              Depends on your situation (chasing/leading) but Salah is the obvious stand out in your team

              1. OldBenKenobi
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 6 months ago

                Sorry I just re-read your post. If he doesn’t have Salah then def captain him!

        2. aborg
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I think you are fine. It just boils down to who you guys will captain now.

          I am in your same boat or worse...I am leading by just 2 points but rival has TC left to play ! I'm in such a mess what to do 🙂

      14. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Have the exact cash for

        Smalling, Willian & Gross -> TAA, Zaha & Arnie (-8)

        Yay or nay?

        DDG
        Smalling, Bavies, Mawson, Lowton
        Sterling, Son, D Silva, Willian
        Kane, Vardy

        Ryan, Gross, Barnes, Chilwell

        1. FPL_Hazards
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Seems like fate Jins

        2. BrockLanders
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Yay

      15. FPL_Hazards
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Guys dont forget Jose is the ultimate troll.

        Remember Jones etc

        Anyone got a link to his actual quote re Smalling?

        1. FPL Pillars
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Smalling will be rested. 100%

          1. RamaJama
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Chances of A cameo?

        2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          He listed the players who would start. Blind and Bailly mentioned.

        3. Hairy Potter
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          I wouldn’t be surprised if he started or if some of those that Jose said will play are actually on the subs bench. Hope I’m wrong.

      16. OldBenKenobi
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Bauer & Willian > TAA & Arnautovic-8?

        1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          Are you chasing, defending or indifferent?

          1. OldBenKenobi
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 6 months ago

            Defending my league by 19 points and chasing in 2 others by 6 points.

            I’m torn 😆

      17. BrockLanders
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        No Pogba???

      18. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Any leaked line ups yet ? :0