Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. Plagued by indecision
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    G2G or anything worth a hit? 0.2m ITB.

    Hennessey
    Otamendi / Tarkowski / Lowton / Davies
    Zaha / Sterling (c) / Ramsey / Eriksen
    Kane / Jesus

  2. Totalfootball
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Play -

    A) Long
    B) Laporte

  3. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    So Ozil has a back injury!
    On behalf of Arsenal fans I would like to say "Get Well Soon Ozil" 😉

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Water is wet

  4. Ojpsan1
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Willian or Gudmundsson?

  5. hspin
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A or B:

    A: Sanchez, Willian -> Salah, Zaha

    B: Sanchez, Austin -> Zaha, Lacazette

    1. bloomooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

  6. Kalou
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Best move plz experts!
    A.Alonso+son->Salah+taa
    B.Son+Hazard->Salah+Arnie

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A. I think Newc score last home game

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Not an expert, but I’d go A. Think Newcastle will score, but also expect Hazard to do very well against us.

      1. Kalou
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks guys

        1. Weeb Kakashi
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Mate... I was looking for this same question.

          What your doing A Or B?

  7. ILOVEBAPS
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    How long until pens down for the last time?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      3 hr 12 mins

      1. ILOVEBAPS
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      3 hours

  8. Visionaries
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What's all this ddg stuff, left out?

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Romero 100% plays today, Smalling won't play either

      1. Gentle_Turks
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Did Mourinho confirm that Smalling is out?

  9. jackhammer1
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Ryan
    Valencia Vert Lowton
    Salah Sterling Son Lingard Fernandinho
    Kane Jesus

    Going to raise funds by Valencia to Pva or pool.

    Then lingard to x for a hit.

    A. Arnie
    B. Zaha
    C. Ramsey
    D. Hold

    1. hspin
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      zaha

  10. ooooo
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Any transfer worth a -4 here? 0,6mil itb
    Ryan
    Vert Lowton Long
    Salah Sterling Son Zaha
    Kane Jesus Ayew

    DDG Smalling Chilwell L.Cook,

    1. hspin
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      nope

    2. Mongreloid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      DDG to Romero and play him

  11. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What are your thoughts on KDB/Son/Barnes âž¡ Salah(c)/Firmino/Carrick and switch to 3-4-3? Exact cash for these transfers.

    I have a feeling Reds are gonna go loco and Firmino will surpass his biggest points tally of this season.

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Betting all on Liverpool. Will be great if you're right, otherwise not.

        1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Profound

    2. hspin
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      My god, pages are flying, trying again. PLease help 🙂

      A or B:

      A: Sanchez, Willian -> Salah, Zaha

      B: Sanchez, Austin -> Zaha, Lacazette

      1. RomeluAndJuliet
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        A

      2. MTPockets
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Completely depends on opinion of Willian & Austin starting and pts.
          Would probably do A, but don't expect much from Austin either.

        • The Left Duke #3
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          A

      3. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Really wondering Auba or Laca?

        1. hspin
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          same, I want Laca over Austin

        2. RomeluAndJuliet
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Auba if you can afford him

          1. HD7
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            I can...but wont he be a winger while Laca the focal point?

      4. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        You would think a front 3 of Mkhi Laca Auba would get Arsenal a first away point of 2018 today!

      5. Lone Wolf FPL
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Son should start, right?

        1. Viper
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          50/50

      6. Lionel Ronaldo
          7 years, 7 months ago

          1 FT. Which one?

          - Ryan to Karius
          - Duffy to Robertson

          Rest of team strong enough.

          1. Oven Glover
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Robbo

          2. markmcr
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Robertson

        • Lone Wolf FPL
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Would you go RLC/McArthur or Ayew -4?

        • XABI 15
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Will Sam Vokes start?

          1. Netley Lucas
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Expect so with Barnes out

          2. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            With no Barnes should do...

        • Brosstan
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          a) Mahrez - Alonso - Tarkowski - Ederson
          b) Auba - Fernandinho - Dummett - Fabianski (-24)

          Should I be worried at all?

          1. hspin
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            A, minus 24. lol!

        • Ruud van Kane
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          If you had these would you play or bench?
          Smalling, Davies, Silva

          Got Mawson & Monreal for Davies & Smalling. Tadic for Silva if required.

        • Smurf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Who to start?

          1) VdH (STK)
          2) Tadic (MCI)

          1. Lionel Ronaldo
              7 years, 7 months ago

              The attacking player. Always.

              1. Smurf
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Yeah I suppose you may be right.

                1. Root
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 7 months ago

                  He is wrong.

          2. lespaul
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Will Son start?! 50%?

            1. Kasper the ghost keeper
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Tempted to sell for Martial or Zaha

            2. DAZZ
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Im keeping, taking the gamble, will be lots of regrets on here if he does. I can picture it

            3. G-Whizz
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Dunno but I'll take the gamble...

          3. Kasper the ghost keeper
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Son -> Martial/Zaha (-4)

            Nothing to lose but rank at this point

            1. Smurf
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              I would yeah. Both good calls.

            2. Viper
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Go for it 😉

            3. FPL Pillars
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              No

          4. Ruinenlust
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Would you do Son or David Silva out for Salah (-4)?

            1. lespaul
              • 16 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              I have same and going son out for salah

            2. fattfattygavgav
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              neither

          5. Adiebaby
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            I'm 9pts up in ML. Rival has BB. Our teams have the same big hitters but his fringe players are better than mine (he has Davies / Robertson / Zaha vs my Tark / Cedric / Lingard)

            1) play it safe and hope the lead is enough.
            Barnes > Ayew
            2) roll the dice on a big hitter (-4)
            Barnes > Ayew
            Jesus > Aubamayang
            3) bench barnes & Tark (-4)
            Lingard > ramsey
            Cedric > TAA

            Hope that's not too complicated...
            Help!

          6. Gentle_Turks
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Did Mourinho confirm that Smalling won't play?

            1. Viper
              • 15 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Yes. He said its normal he doesn't play after playing so many games in a row

              1. Gentle_Turks
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Cheers.

          7. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            A) [-4] Son/Vardy > Salah/6.4
            B) [-8] DDG/Son/Vardy > Romero/Salah/Rashford
            C) [-8] Son/Vardy/VDH > Salah/6.4/TAA
            D) [-8] Son/Vardy/VDH > Salah/Crouch/Bellerin
            E) [-12] Son/VDH/Lowton/Vardy > Salah/TAA/Bellerin/Crouch
            F) [-12] Son/DDG/Vardy/VDH > Salah/Romero/Rashford/TAA

            Team for reference:
            DDG / Ryan
            Alonso / Davies / Lowton / Long / VDH
            Sterling / Silva / Son / Arnautovic / L Cook
            Kane / Jesus / Vardy

            1. lespaul
              • 16 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              G DDG and son for Salah and 3.9

              1. Hazz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                I wish. Don't have that much money though 😛

            2. Lionel Ronaldo
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Not B, D or E.

                A, C, F look good. Preferably C with Palace midfielder?

                1. Hazz
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  7 years, 7 months ago

                  As in, add another transfer and get a palace mid in for Cook? (Benching the striker.)

              • Hazz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Thanks folks! Helpful.

            3. fattfattygavgav
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Who to play?

              A. Naughton
              B. Lowton (already playing Tarki)

              Thanks

              1. Netley Lucas
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Bench Tark

              2. Hairy Potter
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 7 months ago

                Lowton

            4. fpl-newbie
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Any good advice about Pogba? To sell him with a -4.

            5. Jive Turkey
              • 13 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Good day,

              Leading mini league by 12 points. Have Sane. None of the chasing pack own him but own Arnie.

              A) Keep Saane (we think he starts?)
              B) Sane to Arnie for -4 to block

              Thanks!