Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. dorrian123
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    going laca and aubameyang(c) up front today against huddersfield hoping they have been on the piss all week and arsenal decide to play away from home for once

  2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I have DDG, Valencia, Verthongen, Pogba.... should I be taking hits?

    1. aborg
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      For Pogba maybe

  3. Ruinenlust
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Would you do Son or David Silva out for Salah (-4)

    1. Sam (Team Sam)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yes, probably

    2. BIGREDDOG
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Definitely! Silva

  4. Sam (Team Sam)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I'm contemplating a -8.

    Romero in for DDG (Ryan is sub)
    Martial in for Son
    Lacazette in for Vardy

    Madness? Too much potential for this to bite me? Can just do Martial/Zaha in for Son

    1. Lionel Ronaldo
        7 years, 7 months ago

        "in for Son"? You must be the only one doing that, lol.

        1. Sam (Team Sam)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Surely it's his turn for the bench?

    2. FDMS All Starz
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Chances of the following players starting?

      A) Pogba
      B) Willian
      C) DDG
      D) Christensen
      E) Salah

      1. Ligdon
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        35%
        40%
        3%
        50%
        100%

      2. Big Sum
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        less than 50%
        less than 50%
        0%
        less than 50%
        100%

      3. Collie01
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        A) 50%
        B) 40%
        C) 1%
        D) 30%
        E) 99%

    3. gomez123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Wow....so im 10 pts behind in my ML with no Salah ( leader has him)
      He has just made 4 transfers -12 which puts me 2 points in the lead.
      Was just gunna do Pogba - Zaha/Arnie/Martial before I saw this.
      Do i get Salah in for a hit now??
      Y or N

      1. FPL_Hazards
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        All day Y

    4. chaser123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Any more news on whether Son is available to play today?

    5. Frasmac
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Bottomed

      A - Play Dubravka v Chelsea (DDG bench) and do Mustafi to Robertson

      B - DDG to Romero and play Mustafi (Lowton first sub)

      Other def - Vert/Tark/Morgan

      Cheers

    6. Buck The Trent
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Firmino or Laca ?

      1. Big Sum
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Firmino

      2. Frasmac
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Firmino

      3. Sam (Team Sam)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Laca

    7. Geordienufc1
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I'm not protecting a lead, and I've got no chance of catching up. Just looking for an interesting final day, and hopefully a green arrow. Which of these final day hits do you fancy?

      DDG
      Vertonghen | Mustafi | Naughton
      Sterling | Mahrez | Son | Pogba
      Kane | Jesus | Ayew

      Bench: Dubravka | Dummett | Morgan | Kenedy --> 0.3 itb, 1FT.

      A) DDG + Mahrez --> Adrian + Salah (-4)
      B) Mahrez + Son + Pogba --> Salah + Arnautovic + Zaha (-8)
      C) Other

      In an ordinary week option B would be daft, but seeing as though it's the last week of the season and I'm slightly worried about the pitch time of Son and Pogba I think it might be worth a crack. A is safer, but with less upside.

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Sounds like you want to do B, so go for it.

          1. Geordienufc1
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Haha not wrong, cheers.

        • Jebiga
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          A

          1. Geordienufc1
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Thanks mate

        • VDiesel26
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Son & Pogba both rotation risks so would definitely do Son + Pogba to Salah + Arnautovic. I wouldn't swap out DDG when you have dubravka (Hope for some save points vs chelsea)

          Im tempted to do a very similar -8 for but still undecided -Morgan Pogba Willian > Arnautovic Milivojevic Otamendi

          1. Geordienufc1
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Not sure about Milivojevic in there, but then again he's been doing it all season! If I was protecting a lead I wouldn't make those moves. But if you're looking to catch-up, I'd say go for it.

      2. OldBenKenobi
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Repost:

        Defending my ML by 19 points and chasing in 2 other ML by 6 points

        Bauer & Willian > TAA & Arnautovic -8?

        1. Neebster
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Go for it

          1. OldBenKenobi
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Any reason or just for the sh*ts and giggles?

            1. Neebster
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Arnie in decent form and TAA guaranteed starter. Both could be differentials

      3. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Will someone please be so kind to explain to me if Smalling out for -4 will be worth it? Or just hope for a 1 or 2 points from Mariappa? If for a hit, who is best up to 6.8?

        1. Fantasy Gold
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Play Mariappa imo

          1. GOTHAM City F.C.
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Team news suggest Mariappa on bench

        2. Neebster
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          mariappa. Final day likely to be a goalfest everywhere

        3. My heart goes Salalalalah
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Thanks gents. Mariappa it is.

      4. Frank Koscielny
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        A) Take a hit or two to replace one or both of DDG or Smalling
        B) play Ryan and Dunk/Morgan
        If A) who would you bring in?

        1. Neebster
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          smalling to Robertson and play ryan

      5. VDiesel26
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Ryan
        Davies Smalling Tarkowski
        Pogba Mahrez Son Willian Sterling
        Kane Jesus

        DDG Lowton Morgan Quaner

        Morgan Pogba Willian > Arnautovic Milivojevic Otamendi for a -8? or other suggestions?

      6. Pringle
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Did Mourinho hint about whether Pogba to start or not?

        1. RomeluAndJuliet
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          He might be rested with Carrick playing

      7. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Smalling to VVD for -4 or play double Burnley def?

        17 points lead will become 13 points lead if I take A hit

        1. BIGREDDOG
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I'd play the Burnley def

          1. RamaJama
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Cheers! Smalling first sub in case he plays?

        2. VDiesel26
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Play smalling and have burnley def on the bench to come on if smalling doesnt play whichi s most likely

          1. RamaJama
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Chances of A Smalling cameo?

            1. Sedemuda
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Low, he's got enough defenders to come on.

      8. camarozz
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Morning all on final day, best of luck to everyone.

        Im protecting a 13 pt ML lead but he has WC and BB so gonna be luck i guess .

        Iv done a -4 for TAA + Zaha.

        Been so close in ML that is enough hit wise ??

        Stick with Jesus + Kane and cant Salah and fingers crossed i guess?

        I posted this earlier. I know he cant use both chips same gw. His mistake.

        But even using one im gonna be under pressure??

        1. Brosstan
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I would be worried. BB can easily net 13 points +

      9. mr messi
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I'm chasing and looking for differentials, how does this sound for a hit
        Jesus to Giroud (c) and Lingard to Sané?

        1. Blue Bombers CFC
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Wouldn't want to lose jesus, but I guess it depends who your rivals have, don't fancy many goals for chelsea at Newcastle, don't tend to do well up there

      10. Blue Bombers CFC
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Smalling and Gross to TAA and Zaha for -4

        1. Neebster
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Good move

        2. camarozz
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Yes from me

      11. CloudSky
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        We need a hot topic regarding best Liverpool defense asset with so many to choose from and two potentially playing OOP.

      12. GreenArrows
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Chasing top 10k, currently 14k, have to captain Sterling over Salah and Kane don’t I?

      13. Bojaninho
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Any lingard replacements for a hit?

      14. tibollom
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        who to captain? salah or auba

        1. MTPockets
            7 years, 7 months ago

            salah

        2. Udo
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I'm chasing 14. Am I mad in thinking getting ride of Vert, Naughton & Lin for TAA, Stephan Ward & Wijnaldum in? Advice would be very welcome! Leader has Vert, thats why I consider him to be replaced.

          1. Loðbrók
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            You are mad

          2. Yozzer
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Somone here said Verts maybe rested. Not seen any link though

          3. Neebster
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            -8 excessive. Keep vert. Look for alternatives to ward and wijnaldum

          4. Epic Fail
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Concentrate on differential forward/mids

          5. Udo
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Thanks lads

        3. jg7u
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Which is the best option? 7 point lead in ML, 1 FT and 0.6 ITB.

          A) Smalling, Vardy > TAA, Jesus -4. Will block rivals Jesus, have to play Gross.

          B) Smalling, Gross > TAA, Zaha -4. No blockers, have to play Vardy.

          C) Morgan > Robertson, TAA or PvA FT. No blockers, have to play Gross and Vardy.

          D) Barnes > Ayew FT. Will block rivals Ayew, Gross benched, Morgan will come in for Smalling if/when he doesn't play

          1. Loðbrók
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            C

        4. Greenbackbøøg…
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Walker-Peters worth a punt at 4 million? I heard trippier might not play

          1. barracuda
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Bavies and Rose as FBs?

        5. barracuda
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Bloody Macallan. What a stuff. 🙁

        6. The Royal Robin
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I've got Hennessey and Pope. Do I sell one to avoid not having a keeper playing?

          1. FPL Blow-In
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Why wouldn’t they play?

          2. Richd
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Not for a hit.

            You’ll prob be ok and if not at least you ain’t taken a hit

          3. Teddy Brewski
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Why would Hennessey be dropped?

        7. pundit of punts
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Bench one.

          A. Ramsey
          B. Ayew

          1. BIGREDDOG
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            B

          2. melvinmbabazi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            ayew

          3. Blue Bombers CFC
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            B

          4. pundit of punts
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Cheers all.

        8. Jet5605
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Hey guys, chasing a 15 point gap. Leader will captain Salah and doesn't have Kane. 1 FT and 3.0 ITB.

          A - Jesus & Willian > Kane (c) & Arnie
          B - Jesus & Willian > Kane (c) & Zaha
          C - Vardy & Willian > Kane (c) & Mili
          Other?

          Ryan
          Alonso - Lowton - Naughton - Long
          Eriksen - Son - Sterling - Willian
          Jesus - Vardy

          DDG - GroB - Morgan - Barnes