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Best Value Players – 2017/18

This article aims to revisit some of the talking points from my previous article into the value offered by players. This was written around the halfway-mark (Gameweek 23) earlier this season and suggested the goalkeepers and defenders offered far greater value than midfielders and attackers.

It also suggested that strikers in particular struggle to justify their price tag, even if their history of goal scoring implied they could offer value.

When talking about value my analysis is referring to players points per game (PPG) divided by their starting price.

Analysing the data

The brackets

The spreadsheet used for analysing this data includes 288 players, which I believe makes a good sample size, although not 100% accurate.

A quick comparison between the positions shows that by the end of the season little had changed since Gameweek 23. Goalkeepers and defenders still offer the most value, strikers continue to struggle and some mid bracket priced players exceeded their historical numbers.

However, there were notable differences:

  • Cheap defenders lost momentum and dropped from 0.58 to 0.56. Finishing 0.04 below the value that their history suggested they may offer.
  • Premium strikers experienced an upswing from 0.46 to 0.475. This is is not to say the group performed better as a whole, but is largely related to Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang excelling after his January move from Borussia Dortmund.
  • Premium midfielders experienced a small downswing from 0.503 to 0.486. With only three players in this bracket, it’s pretty easy to point out that the poor Fantasy form of Manchester United’s Alexis Sanchez and Chelsea’s Eden Hazard dragged this average down.

The players

The following list consists of the top 10 performers with regards to value, amongst goalkeeper, defenders, midfielders and strikers.

Some players have a white font colour. This is used to highlight the players who looked like a “safe selection” for a larger part of the season. I put a cap of 25 appearances in place when compiling this.

Noticeable in this graphic is that even the “most valuable striker” Oumar Niasse fails to compete with even the 10th most valuable goalkeeper and defender. Even Aubameyang who delivered numbers that would have surmounted to a 250pts 38-games season was not even close to competing with the value offered by cheap rearguard options. This shows that Liverpool duo of Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold offered excellent value, especially as they cemented starting berths by the close of the campaign.

Strikers as a group massively underperformed this season. This may well be a trend that continues given their pricing within the game. From the outset they have to outperform expectations to offer any value long term.

The Case Against 3-4-3

To book a top 10,000 ranking an average points per round of 61 was required in 2017/18. Given captaincy, one might say that you are fielding 12 players each round. Disregarding the fact that many managers find shrewd ways of playing fixtures and form, and get the most from their armband selection, one might suggest the following:

61/12= 5.038
(to achieve top 10k your players needed to average more than 5PPG. 18 players did this )
or
61/83.5= 0.73
(83.5m is the cheapest formation one might play, meaning your players would need to offer a value greater than 0.73 pts per million (PPM) to have hopes of reaching top 10k. 41 players did this)

I believe this suggests that it is easier to hit your target by focusing on the value of the players rather than their points total. That’s not to say that PPG isn’t a useful metric. With regards to captaincy, PPG means nearly everything. But as the table below suggests, one has to pay a certain price to get the players with the highest ppg, meaning the budget isn’t able to cover it.

This might only be my own perception, but I believe this season has seen more discussion with regards to formations, with plenty of managers willing to opt for different formations than the default 3-4-3. This might be the result of defenders getting off to a flying start, strikers struggling to offer value, or maybe the wealth of midpriced mids offering great returns. However, I believe the talk about formations shouldn’t be limited to the traits of this season alone. If the scoring, rules and player pricing stays similar next season then we may expect strikers to offer similar limited returns.  I believe that from Gameweek 1 next season Fantasy managers might be better off by steering clear of the popular 3-4-3.

Here are some reasons and examples why a striker heavy formation may be doomed.

If 0.73PPM is seen as a players way of proving it’s worth, then this season had 15 goalkeepers, 17 defenders, eight midfielders and one forward hitting this mark. This means that the easiest way of making sure that every single one of your players was able to hit this mark, was by selecting a formation that relied more on defenders and midfielders, rather than strikers.

The difference in “making a miss” in the different slots is also worth noting.  For Example, Tottenham’s Jan Vertonghen was the 35th most valuable defender but did not hit the mark with his value of 0.64PPM. But his “failings” would have hurt far less than the failings of the 26th most valuable striker. Romelu Lukaku and his 0.41PPM.

A comparison of Chelsea’s Marcus Alonso and Spurs talisman Harry Kane is another example to consider.

Both were considered disappointments by some, the former for long spells without returns, the latter for failing to score against ‘weaker sides’.  “Alonso the failure” delivered 165pts (0.71PPM) this season, while “Kane the failure” delivered a 29 goals, 217pts, (0.47PPM). In terms of value only Kane, 29 goals aside, can be considered a failure out of the two. The only problem is, if Kane was supposed to hit the 0.73PPM mark this season he would have needed to deliver a 350pts season, meaning he would have needed to be involved in something like 20 or so, more goals.  Luis Suarez in his Liverpool heyday almost managed numbers like these, meaning its not impposible, it just highly unlikely.

Here are some more numbers to consider.

A 5.5 striker needs to hit 150 points to offer value greater than 0.73 PPM (at least 20 goal involvements)

A 8.5 striker needs to hit at least 235 points to offer value greater than 0.73 PPM (at least 30 goal involvements)

A 10.5 striker needs to hit at least 290 points to offer value greater than 0.73 PPM (at least 45 goal involvements)

Although premium priced midfielders almost have an equally difficult task offering value at high prices, there are reasons to suggest that midpriced and budget midfielders, defenders and goalkeepers don’t have the same obstacle.

Here are some good examples of value players to show this.

  • Pascal Gross (5.5) midfielder  – scored 164 pts with only 15 goal involvements
  • Cesar Azpilicueta (6.5) defender – scored 175 pts with eight goal involvements and 15 clean sheets
  • Jamaal Lascelles (4.5) defender – scored 116 pts with three goal involvements and nine clean sheets
  • Lukasz Fabianski (4.5) goalkeeper – scored 157 pts with nine clean sheets and three penalty saves

Next Season

I’ll return to this subject after prices are released for the forthcoming season. It will be interesting to see if pricing continues in the pattern of previous campaigns. If it does, I’m pretty sure I’ll continue with investing most of my excess of money in defence and high value midfielders. With regards to the upcoming season, these are the players I’m most excited to learn the prices of:

Marcos Alonso

The Chelsea left-back might come in at the same price as he started last season. Given his rampaging raids down the wing he is arguably the most attacking defender we have seen in FPL and the only one capable of pushing past the 200 point barrier. However, given his wing back role is so closely tied with Antonio Conte’s tactics should the Italian leave Alonso may find himself curtailed by rotation or different tactics.

Paul Pogba

His 138pts this season might not impress.  But the Manchester United midfielder did average more than  five PPG this season and he might be capable of delivering even better results depending on his role next season. I also believe it’s possible that his price might drop to 7.5 or 7.0, which would make him a tremendous prospect in terms of value.

Andros Townsend

The Crystal Palace winger was largely overlooked this season, with Fantasy managers instead favouring the cheaper price tags of Reuben Loftus-Cheek and Luka Milovojevic and the goal scoring prowess of Wilfried Zaha. It is worth noting though that Townsend picked up 52 points playing 19 matches over the first half of the season, but upped his output to 69 points produced 69pts across 17 games in the second half of the season. He’s probably one of the few Eagles players who wont come in at a higher price point, which means he could serve as a very valuable fifth midfielder at the start of next season.

Leroy Sane

The winger might very well overlooked when FPL towers look at which Manchester City assets deserve a large price hike. With a PPG of 5.59, Sane actually had the ninth highest PPG this season, and bettered his ppg last season by almost 1.5pts per game. If the German indeed becomes the forgotten one he could offer tremendous value, especially as he looks to be improving each season.

Aaron Ramsey

A popular pick ahead of the season, the Welsh midfielder looked the cheapest route into Arsenal attacking points. Injury and rotation put paid to  this promise, but it is worth noting that he excelled when handed the chance as  the cheapest player to average more than  five ppg this season. If he can stay injury free and impress the Gunners new management he could be a highly profitable asset at the start of next season. His summer off, due to Wales not qualifying for the World Cup, also weighs in his favour.

Mamadou Sakho

Bonus point potential earns this Crystal Palace defender a mention. He was just shy of averaging a bonus point per appearance last season, in which he achieved a healthy 0.85 PPM over his 19 run outs. His fellow defender Patrick Van Aanholt may be easier on the eye with his attacking threat, but if Sakho can earn a price tag of around 5.0 he could offer strong value.

Final Thoughts

There’s probably a wealth of other players worthy of consideration when prices are released. Ahead of that feel free to mention any other potential strong value players you will be looking out for next season. As mentioned, I’ll aim to write another article discussing value in terms of PPM ahead of the next campaign.

44 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Thanks for this. Excellent research and chimes with my soon to be published look at the top 10 in the hall of fame. They mostly used 3-4-3 but it was the formations with just two up top where they got significantly more points in the main.

    4-4-2 and 3-5-2 proving the better options as it enabled them to tap into the value offered by defenders and cheap midfielders.

    I'll be looking at similar next season with a very cheap benchable striker and a focus on a stronger midfielder and defence.

    You present a good list of potential value players next season. Willian another possible should Conte leave and he impress the new Blues boss.

    I'll also be looking at Robertson - or another Liverpool defender. The Scot offers clean sheet, assists and possibly more goals - all for around 5m.. Even a hike to 5.5 or 6m should ensure he offers strong value.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      Cheers Jonty, and thanks for editing!

      Great points on Robertson. Had plans of mentioning liverpools defensive assets and their immense value after VVD-signing. Absolutely astonishing how Karius, TAA and Robertson all offered a value of close to 1.0PPM after he was added to the fold.

      Maybe when deciding on selections next season, a smart thing to do, would be assesing all of LFC's defensive assets, based on post-VVD stats.

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 11 days ago

        No worries - really good article and chimes with lots of issues I was considering already re formation.

        Yep, those Liverpool numbers are great which is why I went for them in the pic....shows how much you value you can get from their assets at the back.

    2. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      One thing that might be interesting in your upcoming article, is looking at their moneymanagement in addition to their formationselections. As an example, this years winner, played 3 at the back 29 out 38 gws, but that doesnt mean that he didnt invest a healthy amount of money in his defence.

      The 124 defenders he played over the season had an average price of 5.6 million, and his selection of goalies had an average of 5.3m.

      Overall it was his goalies, defenders and mids that gave him the most bang for his bucks.

      Strikers: 0,55ppm
      Mids: 0,77ppm
      Defenders: 0,78ppm
      Goalies: 0,87ppm

  2. Legomane
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Lots of decimal places 🙂
    Excellent article.

  3. Make Arrows Green Again
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Thank you for this, Wesmantooth, really interesting reading. I was thinking of doing a follow up from my article I posted before the season started where I classified players by cheap/mid/premium and looked at value for money in each bracket, so not so much at individual players but asset classes if you will.

    I may still do this but it looks as if you have covered most of what I would say. If I do write something I will link back to your article for comparison.

    It's fascinating to see that strikers still flatter to deceive in the current pricing/scoring model. I do think there is a strong psychological element in that a goal is quite an exciting, visceral thing to celebrate, and we value the 1/2 strikers far more than we do the defenders who keep clean sheets every other game. We look at a team with three strikers and we see massive points potential, but perhaps the drip drip of steady clean sheets wins this particular marathon.

    The flip side of this is the fun factor. I tend to play three at the back only because I hate having to wait 90 anxious minutes for clean sheet points. Waiting for possible goals is much more fun.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing but someone on Twitter posted this team which would have won FPL without a single transfer or chip played. https://twitter.com/fplkernow/status/996156937334153216. Interestingly it has a back four of heavy hitting defenders and only two forwards, both of whom are mid-premium rather than Kanes or Agueros. This validates the research we have done into value positions and I wish I had listened to my own advice at the start of the season!

    Cheers again.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      Thanks Red!

      Your article was actually one of the reasons why I got interested in studying this subject. Would be happy to discuss and contribute in any way if you're looking to write another one.

      I completely agree on the subject of how goals might be a disturbing psychological element. Targeting valuable, goalscoring defenders might be the only remedy.

      And as to following your own advice, your not the only culprit. I had my best spell midway through the season after shifting funds towards defense and opting for 4 or 5 defenders. But towards the buisness end of the season I got to carried away with covering highly owned attacking assets in the blanks and doubles, and reverted to the 3-man defense.

      My gameweek-stats paints a nice picture:

      avg GW-score when playing a formation with 3 defenders: 57,6pts
      avg GW-score when playing a formation with 4 or 5 defenders:
      66,1pts

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 11 days ago

        Sounds good! I'll drop you a line.

  4. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Wow! Such a great time article. Can see a lot of effort went into this. Good job.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      *timely

  5. Darth_Krid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Outstanding article, thanks Wesmantooth.

    One of my problems this year was sticking too rigidly to the 3-4-3, but this article really emphasises my folly. 4-2-2 or 3-5-2 for me next season, with a Liverpool defender a must.

    1. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      For me too.. I always stick with 343. Maybe it's time to change

    2. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      Formation: Times played: Ave points
      3-4-3 17 52.1
      4-4-2 7 60
      4-3-3 7 58.1
      3-5-2 3 82
      5-2-3 3 55

      Only used 3-5-2 three times but it was a clear winner for me...

      1. WesMantooth
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 days ago

        Maybe the old idea of rotating 3rd striker and 5th mid could be subbed with rotating 4th and 5th defender with 5th mid?

  6. MTPockets
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Good article. PPG/price is usually my main fpl focus - not this season though as tried other stuff and failed.

  7. Jafalad
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    What a heap of crap. Not one mention of Pope - the standout value player of the season and fantasy goal keeper of the year.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      He's mentioned in both the player PPM-table (where he's rated the best goalie of the season), and in the player PPG-table (where he's rated the 4th best goalie of the year).

      Went with Fabianski over Pope when listing player examples. Did so because i found it intriguing that he went more under the radar during the season, than Pope did. He still managed to get fairly similar results even though he played for a demoted side.

    2. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      "What a heap of crap". Nice insight there. Really constructive.

      It's much easier to criticise someone else's hard work than it is to put the effort into contributing something worthwhile yourself.

      1. Jafalad
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 days ago

        Stop fecking crying.

    3. FrankieTheGent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      This is why we need down votes

  8. The Rumour Mill
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Great article. Its interesting how that amongst the 10 best defenders for value, only 3 of them met your appearance criteria, which actually means that over a season owning any of these 7 may not actually be as good value as they appear.

    I don't know about other FPL managers, but I had 33 autosubs this season, which contributed 95 points to my team. This is a rise from 19 autosubs contributing 39 points last season. Rotation appears to be on the rise in the league, particularly as the top 6 teams stockpile players, and they also appear to be willing to rotate premium options. This was slightly exacerbated this year by the incredible fixture density between weeks 11 and 23, which won't be quite as bad next season, but its worth bearing in mind. (A secondary consideration is that if premiums are rotation risks, then they lose their attractiveness as captains. Therefore, what are they doing in our teams, as they can't justify their price on value alone).

    Therefore I think the golden rule of "picking the nailed on option" cannot be forgotten. Neither should we ignore ensuring you have a playing bench. It will of course depend who teams sign over the summer and on injuries etc, but players like Azpi, VVD, Vertonghen look safe at this point, as do "talismen" at weaker teams who aren't going to rotate their playes so much, like Zaha.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      Great point to be made, in terms of being nailed on. Didn't give it a segment of its own this time around, but had different tables on the subject in previous article.

      I put the cap for being "nailed on" for players having played atleast 20/23 games at that time of writing. Players in that pool showed a higher avg ppm across all posistions except goalies.

      As for the top defenders in terms of PPM, the table might be misleading. Allthough only 3/10 in the played more than 25gms this season, 37 of top50 defenders played more than 25gms.

      Just around the edges of top10 theres players like Azpi, Alonso, Valencia, Tarkowski, Smalling, Mustafi, Lascelles, etca who all offered a PPM greater than 0,7.

      I also had a fair amount of autosubs this season (27), which contributed with 75pts, which means I had a similar average of pts coming off the bench as you. Having a healthy bench might give a lot of extra points during a season. But whats worse, a 6.0 defender not playing, or a 10.5 mid/attacker?

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 11 days ago

        Thank you for the response 🙂

        Thats interesting, so theres a load of nailed on defendaers who are all outperforming even the best strikers in terms of value? That really does add fuel to the topic.

        Haha indeed. And that last point you make is a key one. We could handle Sterling being rotated when he was 8m, but at 10m next season that hurts. A 9.5m Son or Sane would ask a tough question of us aswell! And I'll be glad to see the back of Conte to be honest, his rotation of Hazard was infuriating!

        1. WesMantooth
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 11 days ago

          replyfail, see below

  9. WesMantooth
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Yup!
    50+ defenders with a ppm greater than 0,6.
    6 strikers managed the same, and Aubameyang was the only striker priced higher than 6.5 who managed to do it.

  10. tm245
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Thanks for taking the time and laying out such a thorough summary of this FPL season. I think Rumour Mill's post about rotation is a pretty interesting one, the world of actual football might have had a significant bearing on how things transpired: the concentration of talent in the top 6, a World Cup year creating more fixture congestion, pretty tepid title and top 4 races (including 4th place now having the same qualifying value as 1st-3rd), and the new normal of very few FPL identified strikers being the sole talismen on their teams, all these contributed to underwhelming performances from many of the premium players.

    Your point in the article
    "But as the table below suggests, one has to pay a certain price to get the players with the highest ppg, meaning the budget isn’t able to cover it."
    was an interesting one, but I think one curiosity about this season was the fact that even when FPL managers wanted to break the bank on players, they far too often did not provide value in return.

    I posted this in the Salah Hot Topic last week:
    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/05/16/team-of-the-season-david-de-gea/?hc_page=1#hc_comment_18214415

    Check out Red Lightning's response as it gives us some context for how the premium players did in terms of value in previous seasons as well. Standout players getting over 6.0ppg filled only three slots this season: Salah, Sterling, and Aguero/Aubameyang. Compared to last season, that is a pretty weak showing, though previous years have also been underwhelming.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      Thanks TM,

      Im sure the factors you listed, and many more in addition, had a lot to do with how things transpired. But I dont think its strange that strikers and premium assets struggled to defend their prices, when their history suggested that they would have low value. I am however surprised by just how poorly they faired.

      As to my point on ppg and your discussion with red lightning. I agree that only 4 players breaking 6.0ppg might be on the lower scale, but as you both mentioned, the pool of players being able to do so varies each season. The point I was trying to make was that even though it may look enticing to load up on as many of the players with high ppg as possible, it might mot be the best use of one's money. Because chances are you'll get more points by spreading the wealth across several other positions.

      As an example:
      Lets say Kane had delivered 7.5ppg (285points in 38gms). You'd still be better of having Firmino(181)-Azpi(175)-Alonso(165)-Otamendi(156)=677pts
      rather than
      Kane(285)-cresswell(118)-Maguire(117)-Ake(102)= 622

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 10 days ago

        I agree with you on paragraph 1, the premium defenders are always amongst the best for value as they tend to be consistent and predictable. The premium assets were underwhelming, particularly Morata, Lacazette, Jesus, Hazard and Sanchez. And the budget strikers were dreadful, absolutely dreadful. I analysed my own team on FPL statistico and discovered I averaged 5.01 points from my forwards. This was mainly due to averaging 2.85 points from my third strikers across the season, a poor return for an average of a 6.1m outlay.

        Your second paragraph is valid if we are playing a game without captaincy. But captaincy distorts the picture slightly. We normally need a 10m plus asset that we feel we can captain safely and predictably in our teams (Salah was a bit of a freak this year in that respect, being the standout captain for just 9-10m). Would you have felt comfortable captaining Firmino, Azpi, Alonso or Otamendi? I'm not sure I would.

        And that changes the numbers to (in the case of choosing to permacaptain Firmino and Kane respectively):

        Firmino (181*2) + Azpi (175) + Alonso (165) + Otamendi (156) = 858pts

        Kane (285*2) + Cresswell (118) + Maguire (117) + Ake (102) = 907pts

        This is why I feel its risky to go completely without a premium asset, as its not every season the best captain emerges for below 10m. But as you correctly point out, having over 2 10m players normally damages the value your team as a whole can offer.

        1. WesMantooth
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 10 days ago

          100% agree with you.

          The captain is a different beast and needs its own logic. Its all about the points per game, as thats the captains added effect. I know some people who believe theres a lot of merit to having 2-3 premiums offering high ppg, and rotating the armband with regards to form, fixtures and history to achieve even greater success. I also know players who more or less "permacap" the player they believe will achieve the highest ppg, and stick with them through thick and thin. Theres probably possible to achieve success with both tactics, but im probably leaning more towards the last.

          The thing is, if were only chasing the players with the highest ppm, we might end up fielding 11s worth 70m, which is just folly. Hypothetically, let say you have a great goalie and a solid 5-man defense all offering great value, and this costs 34million, you still need to figure the best way to spend the remainding 47-48 million. Across the 5 remainding slots, thats more than 9m pr slot. Which means atleast 1 or 2 premium assets offering high PPG's seams like a sound way to spend your money, and thats not even accounting for the effects of captaincy.

          So yeah, my example might not have been the best one as the added effects of captaining a player scoring 285pts is invaluable. Probably took it a step to far trying to prove a point, should have used 260pts on Kane instead, just to make comeback come short with the lowest possible margin 😉

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 9 days ago

            I quite like having 2 players in my team I feel I could captain, to provide the choice of choosing the one with the best form, fixture, home fixture etc. Also gives you a solid vice captain option if there's a complete no show for your captain.

            Haha indeed. It will be particularly interesting to see what price and position salah comes in at for next season. I say I like having 2 premium attackers/mids, but there's a world of differenve between 2 premiums costing 10.5, and 2 costing 13m. I guess we could class guys over 12m as "super premiums", with their own value equation.

        2. tm245
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 9 days ago

          Good points from both of you here. One note: Kane scored 217 points so I am not quite following the math in this comparison. But your overall point is an interesting one because I think it asks the question of how many premiums should one own -- the comparison might be need to be expanded further beyond a Kane and three cheaper defenders vs Firmino and three premium defenders to determine value since so many managers rotate captaincy between 2-3 attackers. The value question here depends on how many captaincy choices a manager wants to have.

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 8 days ago

            That's a great point. Ive seen the question of value bought up a few times on here, but I don't think ive ever seen an attempt to quantify captaincy value and how this changes depending on whether you have 1,2 or 3 potential captains in your team. Might have a look at this over the summer.

            1. WesMantooth
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 8 days ago

              Agree with the both of you! I've never been able to quantify the value of having several captainselections. All i know is that this season I was fairly close to having Kane as a permacap the first half of the season, but played a wider selection of options as it became clear that Salah was the standout captaincyoption + doubles and blanks kickdt in. I finished on a total of 575pts from captains which is only 26pts of the OR winner. He definately played around more and varied a lot with his picks, but the main difference was prob that he identified Salah's captaincy value earlier on in the season than many others did. Still, keeping the armband on Salah the entire season would have given more pts than the 601 he ended up with.

              Would love it if you post any findings on the value of having several Captaincyoptions.

              As to the Kane @ 285 bit TM... this was just a made up scenario i used to back my point about going blind due to focusing on ppg rather than value. Prob shouldnt have done it, as its only confusing, and taking the liberty of "creating" scenarios to back a point is something one could do in multiple directions until it just becomes silly.

              1. tm245
                • 8 Years
                2 years, 7 days ago

                Cheers, I reread your original response and now it makes more sense. As for the captaincy value calculations, a rough estimate could be something like 1.5x if you are going to captain him every other week, or 1.33x if you are going to rotate him with two premiums.

                Say in RM's calculations above, with both having another premium like Aguero as captain, scenario A had Aguero as permacaptain, then the Firmino group would simply be the total points; scenario B with the Kane group might have Kane at 1.5x and the rest at their listed points?

                Firmino (181) + Azpi (175) + Alonso (165) + Otamendi (156) = 677pts + 2x Aguero

                Kane (285*1.5) + Cresswell (118) + Maguire (117) + Ake (102) = 836pts + 1.5 Aguero

                No idea if it would work, but just a thought. RMT might be helpful in trying to model this since it factors captaincy into every transfer you make.

                1. WesMantooth
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  2 years, 7 days ago

                  Like the scenario you suggested in this post. But, if its to be a good comparable scenario one probably needs to give Aguero a 38gms season total. Based on his PPG this season, he'd have gotten 257pts in the end.

                  Firmino (181) + Azpi (175) + Alonso (165) + Otamendi (156) Aguero(2x257=514) = 1191

                  Kane (285*1.5=428) + Aguero (257*1.5=386) + Cresswell (118) + Maguire (117) + Ake (102) = 1151

                  This suggests theres no reason alternating captains amongst those with high ppg unless your able to get a better pgg than "their normal rate" everytime you hand them the armband. If the scenario with both Kane and Aguero is gonna be equally as good as the one with Aguero permcap, then the duo needs to pick an extra 40pts from their rotations, which means that kanes Sason tally + captaincypts need to hit 448, and Aguero need 406.
                  This means kane need to deliver *1,57, and Aguero needs to hit *1,58.

                  In any case, I'd say if rotating captains amongst premiums is to be fruitful, one needs the captains to average a higher ppg than they usually do. In this scenario it would mean selecting Aguero and Kane at times were they've collectively outscored their ppg-averages by more than 1pt.

                  This is probably not an impossible task,. But I do think, that the more clear it is, that theres one particular player, averaging a far superior ppg than others, the less appealing several premiums and rotating the captaincy sounds.

  11. darrellb
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Great article. And good to read comments purely related to this discussion topic. Thanks for all the hard work.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 days ago

      Thanks! Definately a lot of comments adding value to the subject!

  12. FrankieTheGent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Excellent article. Cheers.

  13. PaperTroopers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    This is great work. Looking forward to the updated article when new player prices are released. Good job!

  14. Nyom Legend
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 days ago

    Great article!

    I look forward to the pricing of Trent and Robo. If Young get another season as a starter AND classified as a defender, I think his price/value is something to monitor.

    Maybe far fetched but it Tosun comes in at 7 he could be good value, depending on no new signings and the new managers philosophy.

  15. minges
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 days ago

    Fantastic article, great work. Cant wait to put some of this to practice next season, spent far too long hoping for returns from my big front 3... shifted down to a 352 only to end up with a big front 3 again.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 days ago

      Thanks!
      I've also traditionally allways been a 3-4-3 guy, but played more around with formations this season, and they all proven more efficient than the times I regressed back to old ways.

      My guess is that its several different reasons that strikers are looking less and less appealing. The points-scoring system has allways been an obstacle. But i've got a feeling that a lot of things have evolved. FPL have gotten better at prising players, making budgetgems harder to come by, and therefore less money to throw at the pricey strikers. Also, the striker-pool has been reduced, with very few teams offering more than one "nailed on" striker, which has had the sideeffect of having a lot of OOP mids scoring at the same rates as the strikers.

      Gonna be interesting to see how strikers get priced next season, and if any of the mids from this season gets reclassified.

  16. Ronnie Hotdog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 8 days ago

    Thanks for this, there are a lot of good points made in the article and in the comments.

    Regarding GKs, I think we need to bear in mind that we've always got at least £4m sitting on the bench - so the GK position is more expensive than it appears. I reckon if you added £2m to a GK's price (so £5.5m becomes £7.5m) it might make it more of a level playing field when comparing the value of GKs to the value of outfield players.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 days ago

      I agree... goalies are the only "locked" part about fpl formation. You have to play one, and you can't play 2. Also really hard to evaluate value within their bracket. Its easy to say player A was better than B, therefore he was more valuable. But it gets harder when you put names to the scenario. Was putting faith in DDG-Pereira a better pick than alternating the cheaper combo of Foster and Begovic? I'm not to sure.

      Don't really know if adding 2m helps put things in better perspective, just think goalies are a position where you have to do very much wrong to not be able to get bang for your bucks. Theres a lot of sensible approaches, and they inculde players from all the different priepoints amongst goalies.