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Points Per Million Revisted

There’s a raft of different ways to assess a player’s value to a Fantasy side – form, fixtures, points per game, points per 90min are just some of the measures used. But what most of these factors don’t consider is the price of the player you’re trying to assess. This is where points per game per million (ppgpm) can be invaluable. This article will take a close look at how a closer eye on value can help guide our decisions.

Background

To  help explain ppgpm let’s take Liverpool winger, Mohamed Salah, who is the Fantasy Premier League’s top scorer, with 179 points over 22 games at the time of writing. This means that, based on his starting price (9.0), he has offered a value of:

179/22/9= 0.90 ppgpm

There is further background on this measure in this article by Red Arrows.

There’s several reasons why I wanted to explore this theory further:

1: To look at defining differences in value based on positions.

2: To figuring out if historical numbers of points and matches, coupled with season starting prices, can be used to predict a players value ahead of the season.

3: If the findings suggest an optimal set-up/formation.

Results

Differences in value

There is very noticeable differences in value when comparing averages in each position, with a total of 278 players studied in this research.


Based on their starting price, the table shows suggests that the most valuable players would be goalies, then defenders, then midfielders, then  attackers. When comparing the numbers with the season averages so far (Gameweek 23), it’s clear that this has also been the case. The different positions have delivered very similar numbers to what the history suggested, with only the strikers failing to match their expected value.


This table shows how amounts of games played affects the value in each position. It seems that on top of not getting those pesky points off the bench, having players who are “nailed on” also increase the value of their returns.


This table shows what history suggests, according to pricebrackets, and how its played out this season. The most notable things are:

– expensive goalies, expensive defenders and mid-priced mids are all currently overperforming compared to how historically they have performed.
– All strikers are underperforming, but the ones who are underperforming the most are the cheap and midpriced ones.

Predicting value

The way the players have performed thus far this season does suggest that one can use historical data of points and matches to fairly accurately identify which positions are most valuable.

It should however not be taken as gospel in every individual players case, because different circumstance might alter what the history can’t account for. New role, new club, age, new manager, new players contending for a spot in the lineup. Of course one has to assess all these factors, and many more.

This of course doesn’t mean that it’s not useful in the individual cases. Out of the current 11 in the Dreamteam, all players except David De Gea, Harry Kane and Salah had a FPL history, which predicted that they would offer greater value than average this season.

Green: players that were expected to beat the average ahead of the season
= 17 players

Red: players that were not expected to beat the average.
= 15 players

Yellow: Players that lacked sufficient history.
= 8 players

Looking at the top 10 value players in each position, the predictability isn’t as clear as in the Dreamteam. However, if one extends the samplesize, the trend becomes clearer.

Set-up / Formation

If one was to use the findings when building the team ahead of the season, it would seem clear that the best way to invest your money would be in defence. Investing elsewhere, let’s say in attackers, would be the equivalent of choosing to place a bet with the bookie offering the lowest odds on the outcome of your choosing.

The history of the players in the study suggested that 5-4-1 would be the ideal setup this year. This has been pretty much on the money so far. Only two strikers have offered a value greater than 0.7pts per million, 12 midfielders have managed the same, and a whooping 27 defenders have broken the mark. This basically means that 5-4-1 has offered the easiest way to steady returns, giving loads of decent options.

Conclusion

Red Arrows  said it well in his article:

When we play Fantasy Premier League we are essentially trying to spend 100m as efficiently as possible, so the calculation in the backs of our minds is always point per game per million (ppg/m) even if we don’t think about it when we are setting up our teams.

Allthough I believe this to be true, I also believe there’s a lot to gain by using points per million in a systematical fashion. If we did, perhaps 3-4-3 would not be each season’s favoured template. Perhaps a lot of us would have scrapped the idea of “killing” several positions in search of getting our hands on premium attackers at the start of the season. Perhaps a lot of us would have opted for the “safer choice” instead of the “risky one”. Perhaps.

Playing the ‘perhaps game’ is allways gonna be hindsight bias. Just because this study shows that a lot of the trends this year were predictable ahead of the season, it doesn’t mean that’s gonna be the case next season, or going forward. However, going forward, I’ll make sure to use “points per million”, as a metric, more than I’ve done in the past.

The complete spreadsheet can be found here. All numbers should be correct as of Gameweek 23.

46 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Thanks for posting. Really shows how much value there is in the 5-6m defender category.

    1. Matamatics
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Definitely, one of the best bargains last season unexpectedly was Gary Cahill. One of the main reasons I front loaded on expensive defenders at the beginning of the season.

  2. WesMantooth
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I should note that the table showing value with games as criteria is not correct. Seems like defenders have the same averages as midfielders due to a mistake when creating the table. These are the correct stats for defenders.

    All Defenders 0,59
    At least 15gms 0,6156
    At least 20gms 0,6266

    "nailed on" defenders are noticeably better than mids.

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Do you want to email me a new table and I can swap them?

      1. WesMantooth
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers!

        1. J0E
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Done.

  3. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This article is savage. No idea how you've compared things historically. That's bonkers. Good work.

  4. joeydelucchi
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    wow this is brilliant, i've tried doing the same too on my own and always came up short in terms of my maths.

    i'm sticking with my 4-5-1 for sure now 🙂

    1. Pulp Minion
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      4-5-1 is great if you have a nailed on captain choice as a forward (e.g. Kane) with good backup from a mid (e.g. Salah)

  5. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This article is based on original price not current price therefore largely irrelevant ? Value is a moving target throughout a season and simply has to be measured against current price.

    The ‘value’ tab on the FPL site for Value has completely different order compared to the lists above
    Fab top keeper
    Alonso top defender
    Doucoure top mid
    Ayew top forward

    Also why use points per million per game ? Value on FPL site is simply points per million and redefining ‘Value’ for the purposes of an article to something different in the FPL game is misleading ?

    Sorry for being negative but such an article has to be based on the latest game week or atteast benchmarked to GW23 rather than ‘at the time of writing’?

    Other than that generally quite interesting 🙂

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      All fair points.

      However, given that one of the points of the article was to take a retrospective look, too see whether or not some of this years trends could have been predicted, I think its fair to use the startingprices in that instance.

      Secondly, prices fluctuate all the time, and that way a player like Salah can have a very different value for someone bringing him in this week ass opposed to someone who bought him at 9m. So, even though i agree with you, using startingprices atleast sets a pricestandard that does'nt have to change constantly.

      Lastly, the article ends by stating that all numbers should be correct as of GW 23. Applying the method to your own team of course means you'll have to use current points and current prices when assessing.

  6. Nickemon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Thanks for the diligent work. Appreciated!

  7. Feyzi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Wonderful update.
    Just wondering when I will have the guts to start a season 5-4-1.

  8. Ludo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This is outstanding work, and your historical findings are particularly interesting.

    It's not too surprising that value generally lies at the back, with keepers better value than defenders on average, who are in turn better value than midfielders, with forwards providing the least bang for their buck as a group.

    You make a decent case that a 5-4-1 is the 'easiest' way to guarantee allocating 100m in a cost effective way. However, I think there a few compelling reasons to think that a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 are still the 'best' approaches to take over the course of a typical season. I have no doubt someone could play a 5-4-1 and very consistently finish in the top 50k, with a 1k finish possible in a particularly strong year, but I would say it's very unlikely that FPL will be won by someone adopting that strategy.

    The main reason is that the trend doesn't mean much to the individual. We only have 15 spots in our squads - 2 keepers, 5 defenders, 5 midfielders and 3 forwards. Defenders offer greater value than forwards on average. However, that doesn't mean there aren't Forwards who can provide stronger value than most defenders. For example, your spreadsheet shows that Firmino (0.67) and Wilson (0.73) are offering greater PPGPM than the average Defender this season (0.59). There are 54 Forwards in your spreadsheet, but how many are fantasy relevant? Only the small handful that provide enough value for us to seriously consider them - that's how templates are formed. On the other hand, because of defensive 'coverage', where any of the three to five starting defenders can be viable fantasy assets when their team picks up a clean sheet, there's a much larger pool of picks for us to consider.

    There's also the captaincy to consider, which, by doubling your points for a particular player, also doubles their value. The greater a player's points per match, the greater the increase in their value. For that reason, we want to be captaining the highest scoring player every week, as obvious as that sounds, it's really about getting the most value out of your captain. For example, if you captain Harry Kane every week, he's giving you 1.06 PPGPM, rather than 0.53.

    The final signficant factor for is that we are restricted by the limits of the game - we have to pick 2 goalkeepers, 5 defenders, 3 midfielders and 3 forwards. That's where VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) comes into it - when you need to pick 5 defenders anyway, it's not just about Points Per Game Per Million, it's about how they compare to the alternatives, given that you have to own someone. For example, there's a minimum spend for each position of 4.0 to 4.5, but if you want to pick 15 starters, that minimum spend will increase, and realistically, will get higher the further up the pitch you go.

    What I think this exercise is really useful for is providing benchmarks for what makes someone a good value fantasy asset, depending on their position. For example, looking at your numbers, I would say you don't generally want to own a goalkeeper providing less than 0.75 PPGPM, a defender or midfielder below 0.60 PPGPM, or a forward under 0.50 PPGPM. With those benchmarks in mind, the next step should be to get ourselves a couple of prime captaincy options, namely, two or three of the best players in the game for PPG.

    Beyond that, you fill out the rest of the squad however you like, adhering to PPGPM and VORP if you like. If you were doing this by random selection, you would pick 5-4-1, because of the greater value defenders offer on average. However, we don't have to pick blindly - when a player with much greater value than the average for their position (such as Firmino, or this season's outstanding value midfielders in the 8-9m bracket like Salah, Sterling and Pogba), we all jump on board.

    We also get a free transfer every week, which allows us to buy in-form attacking players with an enticing run of fixtures. That offers an opportunity to chase an even higher PPGPM than a midfielder or forward will average over the course of a season. Premium defenders offer a steady investment - keep faith in them long-term, and they'll provide value. Those value attacking players also tend to earn more price rises than anyone else, and so team value can be built more easily with this style than the slow and steady 5-4-1 approach. Playing fast-and-loose with a 3-4-3, trying to find that value in midfielders and forwards, either for a short spell or a whole season, is what most of us do intuitively. That said, I still think there's great worth in taking a step back every now and again like this, and looking at the deeper logic behind how we play without thinking about it.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      First of all thank you for a massively wellwritten response to the article. This pretty much sums up the key points as to why points per million is merely a usefull tool and why the numbers and some of the arguments made in the article can't be taken as "gospel".

      I very much agree with a lot of your arguments, but would like to comment some of them.

      *5-4-1 unlikely to be a winning strategy.
      - I think this is fair to assume given that most managers pick 3-4-3 at default. Its a numbers game, so the less managers who opt for that formation, the less likely it is that the winner will be someone from that pool of players. However, I would like to note that the current Nr. 1 overall has averaged 4 defenders each round this year, and on average his defenders has had a price of 5,7. In the sense that he could be able to win with this strategy, I dont think its unlikely that we'll see someone winning the game with an even more defensiveminded strategy.

      *The case for VORP over PPGPMill.
      - I completely agree with this. Assuming one wants to have the cheapest bench as possible (prob not a great idea!), there's distinct differences between the "price" of the formations. As defenders has a 4.0M "floor", where defenders and strikers has 4.5, one is essentially "paying" 0,5m for every defender added to the formation. And as you noted, if you want to have starters on the bench, the 5-man defence probably becomes even costlier.

      The "cost" of the defensiveminded formations can possibly be worth it by selecting great picks in defense. Especially when there seems to be a lack of great selections among the strikers, as it has been this season.

      And in other seasons, where gems like a 5.5 breakoutseason Mahrez, or a 5.0 heavyhitter Kane or Alli is available, the defensiveminded formation may suddenly loose its logic. Because a magic bean frees up funds to go with players who are ready to compete for the highest points per game numbers, and not neccessarily represents immense value in terms of pricing.

      This is probably why i got engaged with these thoughts at first, and probably why I wrote this article. Time and time again i've punted on cheep defenders, budgetmids and budgetstrikers, in hopes of being able to shave off enough millions to make room for another one of the premium assets of the game. But this is only sound logic when the "magic beans" are in circulation. When they're not, i think it's fair to question whether a 4-man defence or possibly 5-man defence is a more secure way of climbing the ranks.

      *Being able to outscore the PPGPM avg of the different through transfers.
      - This is what it's all about. To be able to finish with a strong rank , this is a must. I do however believe that many of us overestimate our ability to master the dark arts of transfers, and often end up loosing out on points by being to hasty.
      In terms of PPGPM the current OR nr1 has beaten the avg of each position:
      GK: 0,20
      DEF: 0,27
      MID: 0,20
      ATT: 0,15
      A selection of 2 gk's, 12 defenders, 10 mids and 8 strikers would have been able to offer the same, or better. 75% of these players have played more than 15 games. This might give some indication as to why I might suggest that we overestimate our own ability to massively impact our scores through transfers.

      Thanks again for a brilliant contribution to the discussion!

      1. Ludo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Fair comment on playing 4 or 5 at the back - it's good to challenge our underlying assumptions, and bring them out into the open. I'm open to persuasion that you can succeed that way, and even that it's the better strategy on average, but I can't help but chase that high ceiling, even if transfers are often hit and miss!

        I think the point about a Kane or Mahrez emerging is a great one - occasionally, a player or two emerges who is so underpriced, they make it pointless to look for value anywhere else in the team - you just fill it out with the highest scoring players in the game. This season, that hasn't happened, though, and as FPL get better at pricing players, we have to get used to thinking in this way.

  9. Lubic87
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This article made me chuckle, given that I've had 3 premium forwards all season so far. Firmino is as low as I've gone. This is very unusual for me, but not a single one of the cheaper forwards have temped me yet.

    That said, my cheaper (value) players like Gross, Lingard, RLC etc seem to be grinding to a halt, so I may need to free up funds imminently.

    1. Captain Roberto
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Or swap to Willian and Walcott 🙂

  10. MTPockets
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    That's interesting, and a little surprising.

    As it's ppgpm do you include every available player from every team, or eliminate those below a certain number of minutes played?
    Just wondering if results could more reflect the extent of 'surplus' in every position - both in terms of RL squads/managers & fantasy picks.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      When I first started working on the spreadsheet I excluded the players who lacked history in the Premier League, and also, to some extent, players I could'nt see getting much playing time. I've added some players to the list after making the first cut, but this study has only looked at 278 og the 548 players currently in the game. However, the selection should cover allmost all viable assets within the game. Not sure how the "surplus" affects the numbers. 20 teams means at least 220 players playing football each GW. The sample as a whole seems like a minimum. But in any individual case, its of course debatable as to whether they should have been left out.

      1. MTPockets
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Fair enough - thanks for the explanation.

  11. Yellin' in my Ear
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    It's an interesting angle but I don't think it's necessarily as cut and dry as that. What would happen to these for example if every single player was £5m more at the start (so cheapest defender and keeper £9m, and attackers £9.5m). Would that skew the results given the differences are now proportionally less?

    Maybe a different angle would be to say that the cheapest possible team we can produce is 7 x £4m + 8 x £4.5m = £64m so we only have £36m of discretion. How much additional benefit do we get therefore in this discretion, from every additional £0.5m increment in each position?

    1. Jarvish Scott Talent
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Perfect post (as I was going to post something pretty much identical 😉 )

    2. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      This was never meant to be cut and dry. To much emphasis on defenders and formations, or trying to hard to build a strong foundationen for the logic, might have clouded that. The hope was to spark a discussion surrounding the logic as to why we pick and build our teams the way we do, and whether or not its logical in terms of securing points in the long run. Hopefully, using metrics like PPGPM might be useful, and maybe stop some of us from comitting the same mistakes season after season.

      As to your last point, it prob just worth thinking about the bench. A 3-man defence allows a minimum of 16.5M on the bench, whereas the 5-man defence leaves a minimum of 17.5. The formation of your choosing gets at least 0.5m more expensive for every defender, at least based on startingprices. The question in any given season or period, when contemplating breaking with the 3-4-3, is whether or not the defenders you pick can cover the "pricecost" of opting for a more expensive formation.

  12. Yank Revolution
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Love these kind of articles. One suggestion. For even more granularity, I'd prefer to see "points per minute played", rather than "points per games played".

    Any chance you could whip one up in future?

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      That sounds like a great article, and probably one that Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero would love. I honestly only see the use for that metric when a player is due for a massive shift in terms of minutes per game.

    2. Big Mac 24
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      There have been a few players over the last couple of seasons that clean up in the points per minute stakes, Ineanacho, Walcott and Rashford come to mind, Sturridge is another that over the years has been pretty efficient (Well efficient in terms of points per minute, not in terms of goals scored per chance or per shot!!)

      For the last 6 or 7 seasons, as frustrating as he can be, in fpl terms and also as a player in general, Walcott could have been a 200 point player each an every season. IF, he were to remain fit and selected. BUT, the reality is, that he only TOTALLED 200 points in 3 seasons from 2013/14-15/16!

  13. The Royal Robin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who to play in place of Arnie this week?

    A) Lingard
    B) Jones

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gotta be B.

  14. The Royal Robin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Arnie Lingard Gross > Mahrez Obiang Willian for -8

    Yay or nay?

  15. Captain Roberto
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This tells us who's doing well. But you can already see that. How do we predict the future?!

  16. Captain Roberto
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Does this tie in at all with the recent article/discussion about obtaining the Dream Team?

  17. Captain Roberto
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I guess the method is to stick defenders in for long term and then chase form up front.

    The creators of the game have really thought it through to make it tricky and engrossing.

  18. hazard105
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A) Smalling, Mbemba, De Bruyne
    B) Valencia, Stones, Lingard

  19. OHYEAH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Great article. I am considering changing my team formation up and this will really help to inform my decision! I think your argument for a different formation definitely caries some merit. Your results clearly show that midfielders offer better value than strikers at each price range bracket (unlike in previous seasons).

    Deciding whether to invest in defenders or midfielders (or strikers) is a little trickier, however. This is because you cannot compare ppgpm across different priced players without also comparing ppg = ppgpm * price. In other words, higher priced players may offer a higher ppg but have a lower ppgpm.

    Ultimately, we are trying to maximise ppg subject to the budget of 100 million. This is subtly different to maximising ppgpm.

    Hope this adds to the discussion and makes sense. Apologies if already been covered above. And again, great article!!!

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      That makes a lot of sense. It's been somewhat covered, but maybe not clearly. The case for using this metric is not simply based on just getting players that offers great PPGPM. If that was the case, one could end up having several million in the bank and while one might be fielding the best players in terms of value, one might not be fielding the best players in terms of getting points.

      One should probably look to have as many millions as possible, with players offering great PPGPM, and if theres a lot of brilliant alternatives that frees up fund to chase more than one of the heavy PPG-assets, then blimey.

      This was probably the case in 15/16, when players like 5.5 Mahrez, 6.5 Vardy and 5.0 Alli were delivering epic returns in contrast to their pricing. This basically meant that you could field these 3 players week in week out. Which meant that you probably had something like 65 million left for the remaining 8 players in your lineup. Probably a scenario where youd start to think more about PPG than PPGPM.

  20. Skid Vicious (wonkee)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Cracking article! Totally enjoyed reading through each and every single comment.
    Very informative and extremely good information to have on-board.

    Some interesting debates sparked.
    Thanks again to all the contributors.

  21. darrellb
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    great article. gives more reason to have faith in expensive defenders like alonso. i think finding the odd magic bean that performs well enough is key to getting a good value to top players ratio.

  22. Bilbao Baggins
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This is a very interesting article thank you. The one thing I have noticed personally is - playing 352 or 343 allows you to have, as you said, two fantastic value players on your bench in the form of defenders.

    As a current 451 player, I have noticed I have more money tied up in the bench and much poorer value coming from the bench in a time when benches seem more important than ever. Instead of a nailed 4.5 defender I have 4.5 to 5.5 mil non nailed attackers which is a downfall I guess.

    1. WesMantooth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      This is a very good point, what's available as benchselection should probably filter in when making decisions. If theres a shortage of 4.5 nailed on midfielders (usually not the case), or 5.0 nailed on strikers (usually the case), one has to weigh the risk and rewards of either benching more money, or not having nailed on picks on the bench.

      This season has seen atleast four 5.0 strikers getting regular playing time (at least 15 matches) with Ayew being the most nailed on. The midfield has seen atleast 10 picks playing at least 15 games, with Stephens and Cork being everpresent, but probably Andrew Surman and Luka Milivojevic being the standoutperformers.

      Probably goes to show that this season has offered decent possibilities of getting good coverage on the bench from players not decimating the budget.

  23. Captain Roberto
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Has the idea about adding in the age of a player been considered?

    Catching a forward/midfield player at 24-27 he is likely to be scoring more point each season. With defenders, especially centre backs, getting better later. Then as players naturally decline physically their high scoring past seasons will reflect high cost, but their output will naturally decrease.

  24. Rash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Great read and confirms my intention of working on a switch to 442.

    Kudos

  25. El Lobito 10
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This makes total sense, thanks for the article. I've gone five at the back before, but the problem is that we aren't taking account of jumping on form players - usually attackers. This article is more about keeping the players all year round. I've considered 442 but I just hate the way it looks. Saying that I will probably move to it from 352 or to 451 when I remove Kun in a few weeks. Stones looked good as a fourth defender but now with their buying this new fella I might go Monreal who seems to have become a new player post-Sanchez

  26. High Costa Living
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Awesome article, WesMantooth! Always good to see some number crunching.

  27. Make Arrows Green Again
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Wesmantooth, thanks so much for revisiting this in such great detail. Your analyses are so much more thorough than mine ever could have been. I don't mean to suggest for a moment that people hadn't thought along these lines before I wrote my piece (they surely did) but it is great to have people working on the data and a methodology. It's all really interesting and what an effort to fold in all the historical data!

    One thing I would suggest is that you may want to tailor the players in the dataset so that you have more or fewer places depending on the number of players for that position. So your subset of midfielders may want to be, say, 4x the subset of keepers as there are so many viable options in the midfield bracket and not many goalkeepers.

    I would be very interested to see if you take this further. Happy to work on something collaborative. I'm not amazing with statistics and modelling but I can certainly help think of some logical research methodologies!

    Thanks again

    RA

  28. The Shaman
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    About three seasons ago, there was a debate on how best to assess value. I proposed the use of ppg/m then. There were a lot of naysayers.