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The Danny Ward fantasy: best rotation options

With reports that Danny Ward (4.5m) has impressed Klopp, I thought I’d take a look at the viability of rotating him with a 4.5 counterpart.

[Of course, it is far from certain that Ward will play. However, I think it would be fun to envision a world in which Ward were nailed, so I’ve carved out a niche in Community Articles: to present a fantasy that could become utterly meaningless within weeks, or even days, dressed up as essential reading]

Rotation Options

I shall present a list of 4.5 keepers who could be considered for “rotation” with Ward along with their positive points and caveats. I present each pairing with their fixtures up to Gameweek 12 because it’s my favourite number. First, though, here is the conclusion so you don’t have to actually read it all:

  1. Guaita – Best rotation option if nailed. Best option if Ward not nailed.
  2. Patrício – Second best rotation option. Second best option if Ward not nailed.
  3. Begovic – Rotation not great. Third best option if Ward not nailed.
  4. Fabianski – Average rotation option, but expect points when he plays. Suboptimal with an early wildcard.
  5. Lössl – Joint third best rotation option. Suboptimal with an early wildcard.
  6. Ryan – Joint third best rotation option. Essential that Ward starts first 2 games.
  7. McCarthy – Great option if sold by Gameweek 8.
  8. Foster – Great option Gameweek 8 onwards.

Ward/Fabianski:

Ward’s potential aside, Fabianski looks the best value 4.5 keeper across the whole season at the moment. So how do the 2 rotate?

*WHU/liv | *cry/BOU | *BHA/ars | lei/WLV* | tot/eve | *SOU/CHE | che/MUN | MCI/bha* | *hud/TOT | *CDF/lei | ars/BUR* | *FUL/hud

Fabianski would mostly be your back-up, autosub option. If you put your faith in the Liverpool defence, Fabianski may only feature in your starting XI a few times in the first 12 GWs. This is perfectly agreeable, since you are allocating a precious Liverpool slot to a goalkeeper, so you would want to be playing him most weeks. Unfortunately, however, this rotation only satisfactorily covers 2 of Liverpool’s 4 fixtures against top-6 clubs.

Looking at the broader picture, after starting with two 4.5 keepers, you could consider downgrading one a bit later in the season. If you still haven’t used your wildcard by this point, Gameweek 10 looks a good time to start playing Fabianski week-in, week-out and selling Ward. You might also want to give Ward’s Liverpool slot to any outfield player who is proving himself worthy.

Conclusion: Fabianski could act as back-up for Ward. However, the fixtures are not optimal for rotation.

Ward/Ryan:

Ryan is currently projected to be great value to start the season in the members area. Could Ryan, then, be the reliable support artist we need?

*WHU/wat | *cry/MUN | *BHA/liv | lei/FUL | tot/sou* | *SOU/TOT | *che/mci | MCI/WHU* | *hud/new | *CDF/WLV | ars/eve | *FUL/cdf

Nope. Similar to Fabianski, Ryan would have 2 good chances to save Ward from top-6 opponents. However, Ryan has less potential to achieve superman-status, which means we are likely to give the nod to Ward against Chelsea, Leicester (not so bad), and Arsenal rather than taking the chance on a super save-merchant, as we could with Fabianski. I personally think that Ryan would only be better value than Fabianski if Ward were dropped, since Ryan has the better average fixtures over the opening 10 Gameweeks.

Conclusion: Ryan is a viable option, especially if you believe Ward’s position to be insecure. However, with little room for rotation, it makes sense to buy the more coveted keeper, Fabianski, who will do roughly the same job for your team, but perhaps with a few more save points.

Ward/Begovic:

Begovic is an option that really underwhelms me. However, Bournemouth only face 1 top-6 team in the first 10 Gameweeks, so at least his odds of a clean sheet will be higher (than his previous average) from the start of the season.

*WHU/CDF | *cry/whu | *BHA/EVE | *lei/che | *tot/LEI | *SOU/bur | che/CRY* | MCI/wat* | *hud/SOU | *CDF/ful | *ars/MUN | *FUL/new

Despite Bournemouth’s wider spread of tasty fixtures, Begovic still leaves Ward to fend for himself against Leicester, Spurs and Arsenal (if he survives that long in your team), assuming you don’t want Begovic against Vardy in Gameweek 5. Importantly, however, you could bench Ward against Chelsea and Manchester City – teams which are not avoided sufficiently by rotation with Fabianski or Ryan.

For this reason, Begovic would be more suitable for a manager who is planning to use the wildcard either in the first few weeks or, to take advantage of rotation, between Gameweeks 8 and 11 (or 13), after which Begovic’s fixtures decline. You could also downgrade Begovic after Gameweek 8 without the use of the wildcard. However, unlike Fabianski, it would be unwise to downgrade Ward at that time, since Begovic’s fixtures drop off a cliff-like hill, rather than improve as Fabianski’s fixtures do.

Conclusion: Begovic is a good pairing for Ward if you are likely to wildcard before Gameweek 13. Whether Ward becomes nailed or not, you have a good early back-up in Begovic, but he would not make a good long-term replacement should Ward be be dropped or should you wish to downgrade Ward for the additional 0.5.

Ward/Guaita:

If Guaita is nailed to start, I believe he could be as underpriced as Fabianski, and despite being only the 31st most owned keeper at the time of writing, could be the best value stand-alone budget keeper for the start of the season. Almost shockingly, the largest issue could be taking up a valuable Crystal Palace slot in our 15-man teams.

*WHU/ful | *cry/LIV | *BHA/wat | lei/SOU* | tot/hud* | *SOU/NEW | che/bou* | MCI/WLV* | *hud/eve | *CDF/ARS | *ars/che | *FUL/TOT

As you can see, the pairing offers fantastic rotation during the first 10 Gameweeks, before Palace’s fixtures take the nosedive to beat all nosedives. Similar to Begovic, Guaita offers protection for the beginning of the season, and can be sold, permanently benched or wildcarded out when his fixtures turn.

The main differences to Begovic are twofold: (i) Ward’s earliest and hardest fixtures are all covered by Guaita, and (ii) Crystal Palace seem to have a more solid defence than Bournemouth, as evidenced by their 3 extra clean sheets last season, despite a terrible start to the campaign and, in my opinion, poor luck even after their form improved.

Conclusion: Guaita is the best pairing for Ward up until Gameweek 11. He may also be the best option to take the flack if Ward is dropped. However, I personally cannot promise that Guaita is nailed, and with a lot of value in the Palace team, you might want to save a the slot in case you need it for a Palace prince.

Ward/Lössl:

Huddersfield are a bit of a non-entity to me, which may be the reason Lössl has not entered my thoughts until now. However, with no real interest in any of their other players, it could be shrewd to pick out a goalkeeper to avoid filling too many slots (this is always a genuine concern of mine).

*WHU/CHE | *cry/mci | *BHA/CDF | *lei/eve | tot/CRY* | *SOU/lei | *che/TOT |  MCI/bur* | *hud/LIV | *CDF/wat | ars/FUL* | *FUL/WHU

This rotation allows you to cover 3 of Ward’s 4 top-6 fixtures. On the one hand, this makes him a better option than Fabianski, Ryan, and Begovic. On the other hand, this comes at the expense of 2 horrendous opening fixtures, which could be inconvenient at best in the event that Ward does not start as expected (if he actually is expected to start, of course).

Lössl could become your number 1 keeper come Gameweek 10. Perhaps it will then be viable to downgrade Ward with a free transfer for the extra 0.5.

Conclusion: Lössl would make a good pairing with Ward if you intend to wildcard nearer to Christmas, but you would need to be certain that Ward is Klopp’s preferred shot-stopper before the Gameweek 1 deadline.

Ward/McCarthy:

On the face of it, McCarthy has fairly good fixtures from the start of the season. Here’s how they look in rotation with Liverpool’s fixtures:

*WHU/BUR | *cry/eve | *BHA/LEI | lei/cry | tot/BHA* | *SOU/liv | che/wlv* | *MCI/CHE | *hud/bou | *CDF/NEW | *ars/mci | *FUL/WAT

McCarthy would be a good candidate to replace Ward in Gameweek 4 and 5, but ultimately doesn’t manage to protect your team from fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal, with City being the killer blow for McCarthy’s selection chances, in my opinion. Still, if you are expecting to wildcard before Gameweek 8, he is arguably the best option.

Conclusion: McCarthy is a great option with an early wildcard, but otherwise there are better options out there. With a lot of potential value in Southampton, too, you may not want to use a Saints slot in goal.

Ward/Foster:

Assuming Foster will be Watford’s main man between the sticks, he offers an interesting differential option, considering how ubiquitous he was in FPL squads a year ago.

*WHU/BHA | *cry/bur/ *BHA/CRY | *lei/TOT | *tot/MUN | *SOU/ful | *che/ars | MCI/BOU* | *hud/wlv | *CDF/HUD | ars/new* | *FUL/sou

However, Foster would only provide relief for Ward’s fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal. Given that these fixtures comprise the latter half of the 4 most difficult Liverpool fixtures, Foster could be a contender as a replacement for other keepers on this list. For example, you could make the switch from McCarthy to Foster (in Gameweek 8) or from Guita to Foster (at any time before Gameweek 11).

Conclusion: Foster is not suitable for rotation with Ward from the start, but could be considered from Gameweek 8 onwards if he looks nailed and he promises points.

Ward/Patrício:

Rui Pedro dos Santos Patrício is an exciting option for many FPL managers as well as Wolves fans. His quality is reason enough to consider him.

*WHU/EVE | *cry/lei | *BHA/MCI | *lei/whu | tot/BUR* | *SOU/mun | che/SOU* | MCI/cry* | *hud/WAT | *CDF/bha | *ars/TOT | *FUL/ars

By my reckoning, Patrício would spring into action 3 or 4 times in the first 12 matches, allowing you to avoid Liverpool’s fixtures against Spurs, Manchester United, Chelsea, and maybe Leicester if you’re feeling frisky in Gameweek 4. Arsenal would be the only top-6 team Ward would have to face in the first twelve, assuming both players are fit and nailed.

Wolves’ fixtures from the start don’t look too punishing. This could be the best opportunity to tap into Wolves’ supposedly solid defence before Gameweek 23, when their fixtures are arguably the smoothest. In general, as well, he could be one of the better back-ups for Ward in case of emergency.

Conclusion: Patrício is a solid option regardless of Ward’s nailedness. He could be a season-keeper keeper if you end up sticking with the 4.5 price point, though you would be equally justified in shipping him out after you’ve made use of him for the first 8 Gameweeks or so.

Deulofail Like. Subscribe. All that good stuff.”

95 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Geoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Cheers for this!

    I hope he is the starter, if only so your hard work was worth it 😀

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lovely formatting, Geoff! Thanks a lot 🙂

      Would you be able to fix Lossl and Ryan to say "Joint third best rotation option" instead of "Joint third best rotation option for rotation" please?

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Done

        1. Deulofail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Cheers!

    2. GoonerByron
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Congrats on the Goalscorer Challenge win Geoff! 🙂

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks 🙂

        It was pretty close at the end there. Hopefully I can take my first major tournament win and keep the momentum rolling!

  2. Differential C (Mark)
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Oh gosh, that lowercase T in the title.

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Taking nothing away from the content. Good stuff, cheers!

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        That was my fault too, not his! The titles get formatted strangely on the handover.

    2. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not sure what you're talking about 😉

  3. Eden Wizard
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Isn't rotation redundant when picking a top 4 goalkeeper? 😆

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you believe Ward to be nailed, it's perfectly viable to pair him with a 4.0 keeper.

      I've tended to give preference to Ward when selecting between the two 4.5 options in each fixture, but some keepers like Fabianski, for instance, have a ton of save potential to tap into and/or a fixture with a higher chance of a CS imo. But you're welcome to disagree 🙂

  4. Stoichkov#8
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Liverpool made a bid for Clissen..

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I submitted this on Friday 🙂

      But it was fun to dream, regardless!

  5. Areid13
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone know is Shaqiri will play?

    1. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Try to stay on topic in the Community Discussions!

      You'll get better answers if you post in a normal article 🙂

  6. stat
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Also worth noting that if you want to spend an extra 0.5 on keepers, a Pickford / Ward rotation would give you 38 home games for the price of 9.5m, which is the same price as Ederson + 4M keeper.

    Potential rotation throughout the season (note: I've gone for the away game when it's easier than the home game e.g. Leicester (A) rather than Man City (H))

    WHU, SOU, BHA, HUD, WHU, SOU, FUL, lei, CPA, CAR, BHA, FUL, CAR, EVE, NEW, WAT, MUN, wol, NEW, bha, LEI, BOU, CPA, hud, WOL, BOU, mun, WAT, eve, BUR, ful, whu, sou, ful, car, HUD, BUR, WOL.

    It gets a bit messed up after GW 30 because of difficult alternating home games (Pickford and Karius play CHE, TOT, ARS, CHE, MUN in their home games between 31-35) but for the price of a set and forget Ederson you could have an amazing run of fixtures for a very long period of time.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very nice, indeed. I ran out of words so couldn't mention any other options, but Pickford/Ward would certainly be viable.

      For me, though, it's a couple of steps too far. First, I don't think that extra 0.5 buys you more points than if you covered 3 or 4 of Ward's fixtures with a 4.5 option. Second, Ward would already cost you a Liverpool slot (hard to ignore him as best value keeper if he were nailed), and Pickford would cost you an Everton slot with seemingly little advantage imo. People already talking about triple Pool and Triple Everton potential, so I wouldn't want to spend 2 of these slots in goal unless it gave me a lot extra in return 🙂

      Comparing it to Ederson +4.0 is only affective if you value Ederson highly already. 😉

      1. stat
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah you're right, and I've just tried making a squad with Ward / Pickford and it's annoying because it makes having Coleman a risk since I'd be doubling up on Everton defensively. Gone back to my Foster + Guiata.

        1. Deulofail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Sorry to be contrary, but I don't think a "double up" with a Keeper and defender is an issue because you can't rotate them. See our thread from yesterday for details 😀 https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/07/15/scout-report-andriy-yarmolenko/?hc_page=5#hc_comment_18368749

          1. stat
            3 years, 2 months ago

            But it's different regarding defensive players because you're primarily relying on the team to keep clean sheets

            1. Deulofail
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              Not if you're going to play them in the XI anyway.

              It's the same as the argument about 'form': clean sheets may or may not be returned by both your Everton players, but similarly, clean sheets may or may not be returned by your Evertone player + your non-Everton player. Owning both doesn't change the probability of these events happening.

              1. stat
                3 years, 2 months ago

                That's true but I don't think Everton are that reliable defensively, especially under Silva

                1. Deulofail
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  3 years, 2 months ago

                  This is the reason not to get Pickford then 🙂 Nothing to do with a double-up imo

                  1. stat
                    3 years, 2 months ago

                    If we ignore attacking returns / saves / players missing out on clean sheets because of the Christensen phenomenon:

                    If you go for two defenders from the same team, then you only need 1 event to happen (team keeps a clean sheet) to guarantee points. If that event does not happen then your defenders have blanked.

                    If you go for two defenders from different teams, you need 2 events to happen (each team keeps a CS), but there's a possibility of 1 team keeping a CS and the other team blanking, yet you'll still get points.

                    So although the probability of Everton keeping a CS might be more than the probability of Everton keeping a CS + the probability of a player from a different team keeping a CS, there's something to be said about going for an Everton defender and one defender from another team, since 1 goal scored against Everton wipes out two of your players' chances of getting a CS.

                    I guess what I'm trying to say is that it's not just about the probability of a CS, but the fact that one goal being conceded can take away a lot of potential points from you.

                    1. Deulofail
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      3 years, 2 months ago

                      You can frame it the other way around. If you dno't double up, you need 2 things to happen (2 CSs) as opposed to 1 (1 CS).

                      It's a psychological thing to frame a goal conceded as the event. In reality, the probability of a goal conceded and non conceded are two sides of the same coin. It doesn't matter how the even occurs or not, the probability forms 100% when adding CS vs non-CS together.

                      It's not like a CS is the default, and a goal conceded wipes out the default. If you look at the result at the end of all games ever played, there are either CSs or non-CSs, and that's what matters.

                      1. stat
                        3 years, 2 months ago

                        In that case would you ever triple up on the defenders of a team?

                      2. Deulofail
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 5 Years
                        3 years, 2 months ago

                        If I didn't want/need the option to bench them, then yes. But such a scenario is fairly unlikely, I think. All three players would have to look like better value than all other players in their price points and positions, and if they weren't premium options, they'd need to have no poor fixtures at all. You'd also need to be sure you won't want any players from that team in other positions for the foreseeable future. But in principle, I wouldn't be against it.

  7. Eden Wizard
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    As far as £4.5ml GK rotation pairs go, the best combination is can find is: Begovic/Ryan which is objectively based on the lowest FDR, yielding a rotated 58 FDR all season (1.52 average FDR).

    Though should be noted most of the obvious pairs yielded

    1. Eden Wizard
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Granted Bournemouth are a shambles and they could offer wing backs for 4.5

    2. stat
      3 years, 2 months ago

      According to my research which takes into account the home and away performances of each team last season (i.e. how many goals they conceded and scored), the bst 9M pairing for the first six games is Watford + Palace: BHA, bur, CPA, SOU, hud, NEW.

      1. Adams6
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        The thing is with Goalkeepers is that you really want a pair for very long term to avoid using transfers on GK's. 6 games just isn't long enough really if you think you could avoid an early wildcard.

        1. Adams6
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          But if you're planning earlyish WC, then that's a fair shout.

        2. stat
          3 years, 2 months ago

          True, but they rotate well for more than just 6 GWs, although it starts to turn sour around GW 11:

          BHA, bur, CPA, SOU, hud, NEW, bou, BOU, wol, HUD, new, sou, mun, BUR, bha, eve, CAR.

          1. Adams6
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            That's a decent rotation to be fair. Most of us would be WC by then anyway I reckon. Good work

        3. Eden Wizard
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          This, my proposed pairing has a max difficulty rating of 2.

      2. Just Fofana
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Nice work Stat! Who will be the first choice keepers for Palace and Watford... Hennessey and Foster? Are they nailed? Thanks,

    3. It’s a Knockaert
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      That is the only rotation I’m considering atm

  8. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Nice work Deulofail

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers Ogie

  9. The Rumour Mill
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Great read, thanks. Ward/Lossl should state Huddersfield not brighton as the first word of that paragraph though.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Ah, cheers. I changed it in one of my edits, but kept losing changes as the page didn't load, and I kept resubmitting to find the new word count as I tried to reduce the word count to 1878, because I coudn't work out how to submit 2000 words 😆

      1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        It does say “[I wonder if the editor will notice this]” 🙂

        1. Geoff
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          😀

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Made me chuckle 🙂

        2. Deulofail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          😆 I wrote that before I realised Geoff would be editing it. It was meant to be a jibe at Joe's beloved Brighton. Actually, I'm starting to think that it said Brighton originally, and I editted it to Huddersfield for some reason.

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Oohhh, I assumed Geoff had put the bit in brackets in

            1. Deulofail
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              It seems like I'm still confused. Figured it out now.

              If Geoff sees this, could you remove the square brackets because they make no sense anymore! Haha, if not, it's not the end of the world 🙂

  10. Parm
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Nice one Deliboy. I think Ward will be in every team if he's announced as the starter but something we often forget about premium keepers is the lack of opportunities they have for added points when compared to defenders from a similar team.
    Unlike most other positions the goalkeeping points system generally brings the budget keepers closer to premium keepers by means of save points and the subsequent bonus points. Look at the graph below and the top keepers generally fester at the bottom for saves/bonus/pen saves by playing for superior teams whilst defenders from those teams rank highly for attacking/bonus returns. Certainly something to consider with Ward being only a £0.5m shaving from TAA(he was high on the list but below the mins played threshold) & Lovren, even if they don't start the season.

    GK: https://i.imgur.com/3wsG010.png
    DEF: https://i.imgur.com/ppFP70S.png

    1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I suppose taking Ward now (if confirmed first choice) sort of lends towards an early WC approach - where Lovren/TAA could come in later if/once established as first choice

      1. Parm
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Never understood this early WC approach, not sure how you can justify picking almost a whole new team 3 weeks into the season. Most of the squads i've seen are totally capable of carrying a TAA/Lovren for a couple weeks on their bench and I will probably be doing that if we get 1/2 nailed 4.0m defenders.

        1. Deulofail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Agree with this. It's easy enough to build a squad with some longevity in it. It's also going to be hard to figure out which week to wildcard, with players coming back on different weeks. There's a discussion on this here https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/07/09/the-best-budget-defenders-to-buy-in-fpl-2018-19/?hc_page=4#hc_comment_18344084

          1. Parm
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            I suppose it really depends on who you actually want in your team from the returning players. I only really like Kane from the list but others will want Trippier/Sterling/Pogba etc. and there is obviously repercussions as those players return if you start with Martial/Lucas/Aurier etc. Very trick situation but being narrowminded and going heavy for a GW3/4 wildcard is really limiting yourself later in the season if you go 25 GWs without another one if you want to save for DGWs.

        2. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Oh yeah I’m not planning an early WC, just adding a though

        3. It’s a Knockaert
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          With the World Cup, I think it is a very good thing to do this season as many players who are rested for the first few weeks can be brought in quickly and arsenal fixtures turn around, leaving players such as auba a necessity

    2. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks for this reply. If you sort FPL players by bps, you find that the top 8 keepers got 666-772 bps, and only 3 of these are/were 4.5m. The top 20 defenders* got 587-913. Of these only 6 scored more than 666 (the 8th best keeper) and only one of those was below 5.5.

      This is simplified, of course. Would be better to look per game, but it suggests to me that the effect you propose is not as great as it seems it should be.

      Looking at bonus points rewarded, top 8 keepers got 11-19. Backing you up, 5 of these were budge 4.5 options, though the top 3 were 5.0 options (Ederson and De Gea on 10 bonus points). The top 20 defenders got 10-25 bonus (10-19 if you exclude current 6.5 options Ota and Azpi). To me, this again backs you up yet simultaneously suggesting that the effect is not particularly significant.

      It's also important to give more weight of a comparison of Ward with another keeper than with a defender imo. The limitation of 3 slots per team is the trigger for comparison between keepers and players from other positions (which they cannot be subbed with in FPL).

      *looking at more players because we have more defender slots to fill and more defenders to choose from

      1. Parm
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        As you mentioned there it would be better to look at it on a per game basis. Goalkeepers will generally play every game whereas defenders will miss games through injury/suspension/rotation(which is another thing to consider) which is why my tables are in 'minutes per'.
        Also we aren't talking entirely about bonus points here, we have save points and attacking points to consider which are also factored into my table as an 'added point'. You see the elite level keepers are averaging one 'added point' for almost every two 'added points' a defender is getting.
        Whilst I am not 100% against a premium keeper I just think that a defender from the same team, even for £0.5m more will give you much better returns. The gap between Ederson & Ryan will be much smaller than the gap between Mendy & Dunk, for example but this is on a strictly raw numbers basis without factoring in potential rotation for Dunk/Ryan given their price points. It is such a complicated argument.

        1. Deulofail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Haha complicated is right!

          You can get Ward + outfield players, though. There's no restriction on doubling and tripling, only on quadrupling! 😀

          I'll be bookmarking your tables, though. They look pretty useful, thanks 🙂

          1. Deulofail
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Actually it turns out I already have them bookmarked! Bookmarks coming out of my ears, here.

    3. It’s a Knockaert
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Clean sheets are the big points though and the big 5.5 and 6.0 keepers are much less risky in terms of keeping clean sheets

      1. Deulofail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I usually undervalue the power of clean sheets, as evidenced by my refusal to buy Jones last season, despite churning out the cheap clean sheets for those who bought into the United defence.

        That said, the power of the clean sheet is much less for keepers, since the 4 points vs 0 points become 4 points (plus few saves) vs 0 points (plus more saves), which reduces the gap. Added with the fact (presumably) that the defenders we pick tend to get more bonus in a cleans sheet match than a keeper does.

  11. TRIPPIER'S DAD
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Surely if Ward is nailed he becomes a £4.5 fire and forget option in the same way as Ederson or De Gea would be???

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Higher risk of being dropped, though. See my reply to Eden Wizard above 🙂

  12. Deulofail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    For anyone interested in Betitinelli, this is how he originally appeared before I had to cut him out:

    [...]
    6. Ryan – Joint third best rotation option. Essential that Ward starts first 2 games.
    7. McCarthy – Great option if sold by Gameweek 8.
    8. Foster – Great option Gameweek 8 onwards.
    9. Bettinelli – No.

    Ward/Bettinelli:

    Bettinelli is one of the main contenders for rotation with another keeper, namely Fabianski. Let's see how he rotates with Ward:

    *WHU/CRY | *cry/tot | *BHA/BUR | lei/bha | *tot/mci | *SOU/WAT | che/eve | MCI/ARS | *hud/cdf | *CDF/BOU | ars/hud* | *FUL/liv

    To my eyes, Bettinelli won't offer you any significant assistance until gameweek 11 unless Ward is rotated by Klopp, injured or dropped.

    Conclusion: Absolutely useless.

    1. It’s a Knockaert
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Don’t think bettinelli would be an option no matter how easy his fixtures get

      1. Deulofail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Rotates well with FPL favourite, Fabianksi.

        1. It’s a Knockaert
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Just don’t think he’s got much cs chance in the easiest games and his save percentage wasn’t all that good last year I don’t think so no matter who you rotate him with, he just won’t get the points when you start him

  13. It’s a Knockaert
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Surely a 5.5 and 4.0 is better than 4.5 and 4.5 rotation simply because they will keep more clean sheets. I think that a 5.5 such as Ederson can keep at least 15 clean sheets-and that’s with no removal when fixtures get tricky. 2 4.5s such as ward and Guaita would get at most 15 clean sheets, and this is with perfect rotation decisions and assuming they are both nailed

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If my calculations are correct, Karius got a higher % of clean sheets than De Gea last season 😉

      Ward would be replacing Karius in a defence which is potentially as good as both Manchester clubs.

      1. It’s a Knockaert
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Sorry-forgot to put this in: by 5.5s I mean keepers for big clubs-I know Leno and any Liverpool don’t fit into this price but they are still ‘big keepers’

  14. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thanks for this Deulofail 🙂 Nice reading. I'm intrigued by Patricio - I know next to noting about him, but everyone keeps talking about how amazing he is. Not sure if that's just mindless hype though - people keep hearing that he's great and repeating, etc.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Hearing that he's great and repeating? That's all I did 🙂

      1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        😛

  15. RedLightning - Top 10k Any …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Liverpool are currently 11 to 1 on to sign a new goalkeeper during the transfer window.

    If the new goalkeeper is to be a first choice rather than a backup, then presumably Karius or Ward (or possibly even Mignolet) will be number two.

    Klopp saying that he has been impressed with Ward is very different from saying that he is a nailed on first choice. He could just mean that he would be happy to have Karius and Ward as his two goalkeepers if he can't sign someone better. Karius and Ward are currently sharing goalkeeping duties in pre-season, and I am not aware of there having been any indication yet as to which of these might be preferred or whether they might both get matches, as Karius and Mignolet did last season.

    Klopp criticised Karius in the immediate aftermath of the Champions League Final, but that was before he realised that Karius's errors were due to concussion. I was very surprised that neither Klopp nor his medical staff realised at the time or soon afterwards that there was a possibility of concussion - I immediately thought it was a possibility when the radio commentator remarked that he appeared to be staggering around in a bit of a daze following his collision with Ramos - and this was only a couple of minutes before his first howler.

    We will have to wait and see what happens in the transfer market and the rest of the pre-season, but I think it is most unlikely that Ward will be nailed on. And let us not forget that Karius was joint best goalkeeper with DDG in terms of points per game last season.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      See the title and introduction.

  16. FC Hakkebøf
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    i have now made several drafts, but I have only come to one conclusion: It is too early to make a squad now. We need more information on the teams and players, especially those playing in the latter stages of the WC

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      In the final week before the deadline, this article will either be useful or useless, but it's ready and waiting in case it's needed 🙂

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Agreed! I suppose it is for the hardcore fantasy-fans, who simply just can't wait to get started with the tinkering!

  17. The Royal Robin
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Are there any differentials (yes even this early on) that people are leaving out that could actually be decent? Particularly in the first few GW's? Sanchez is someone I'm yet to see in teams.

    1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wrong article

  18. MysticMac17
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    It is completely redundant to rotate a top 4 goalkeeper with a goalkeeper outside the top 4. If you had a nailed Pool defender for instance, would you be looking to rotate him with someone else? The answer is no clearly not. And dont give me the "Oh I dont have Pool defenders for CS potential". Many picked up Van Dik last season because of how much solid Pool were defensively after he joined. The exact same logic applies to goalkeepers. You are just getting lured in by spending an extra 0.5 on an unnecessary other starter to pair him with. The only reason you put down rotating options is because of Wards price of 4.5. Ward is a gift at 4.5 if he starts. Not a gift we rotate with. Asumming hes a nailed starter, we should logically pair him with a 4.0 keeper, and spend the 0.5 elsewhere. And dont forget, 0.5 is a lot! I cant stress this enough.

    Should we rotate Lloris with another 4.5 GK? No
    Should we rotate Ederson with another 4.5 GK? No
    Should we rotate De Gea with another 4.5 GK? No
    Should we rotate Leno with another 4.5 GK? No
    Should we rotate Pickford with a 4.5 GK? No
    Should we rotate Courtouis with another 4.5 GK? No

    No! No! No! No! No! No!

    Spend the 0.5 elsewhere. Think logically.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Use this information as you wish. Others may wish to rotate Ward. The article is limited in wors, but I believe you can glean some of my rationale in regards to your points from it, as well as from the comments. I'll reply anyway:

      I would suggest it might be worth having a second playing keeper in case Ward loses his place. I think it's unlikely that Klopp will come out and tell us that Ward is nailed and Karius is dead as an option for him in the Premier League. If this happens, it would be after a considerable length of great form from Ward, which he won't have before GW1.

      Lloris, Ederson, De Gea, Leno, Pickford and Courtois are all nailed and proven to be #1 at their clubs (with the exception of Leno, but we know it's likely). With Ward, you would be buying him despite his lack or nailedness, so a back-up isn't a bad idea. But it's up to you if you want to take the risk.

      If you have a 4.5 keeper as a back-up, it makes sense to have one with decent potential for points as a stand-alone option. And even with two playing keepers you can be burnt by a keeper being injured or dropped. I've taken a hit for (or had to go without) a keeper in the previous two seasons because I've suddenly been without one for one or two weeks.

      If you do have a second 4.5 player, it would make sense to use him to cover Ward's fixtures against the league's best attacking teams. Players like Fabianski are likely to rival Ward's value when he has a great fixture against a potentially blunt Brighton attack, for example, versus Ward's fixture against a potent City attack.

      That's all "rotation" means here - You have the option to take advantage of the better fixture if you believe it's likely to get you more points, and you can make that decision at the time. If you disagree, then it's not a problem. You don't have to force yourself to rotate, nor to buy a 4.5 keeper.

      You can also downgrade one of the keepers (another point I make in the article) after you are more certain about nailedness, form and future fixtures.

      A final point about the 0.5 would be that, since I find it incredibly easy to make a great side within the budget, you have to spend the money in places you might not normally think, as a kind of luxury. You still want to squeeze as much as you can out of each 0.5, of course, but having a back-up keeper, and one who might help you get more points in "rotation", could be worth that 0.5. This is about personal preference, calculations, projections, predictions and the like. It's commonly said that if you buy the best value 15 players in the game, you would be left with a lot of money in the bank. This money has to go somewhere, and it doesn't have to be an upgrade of an outfield player to a more expensive player who you might not believe is better value.

      Given this, I can tell you that the reasons I have made this information accessible to anyone looking for a back-up for Ward is not solely due to his price the confusing affect it has had on me. I'm a firm believer in finding psychological biases and attempting to reduce their impact on your decision-making. Evidence of this could, for example, be found in a post I make a year ago about how a low price can negatively affect our decision making: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2017/07/17/scout-notes-pre-season-5/?hc_page=10#hc_comment_15887941

      1. Deulofail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Here are the references to the possibility of Ward not being nailed; the option to downgrade a keeper once nailedness is established (either way); and the desire to prefer Ward to his 4.5 counterpart, which you must have missed from the article (more in the comments):

        '4.5 keepers who could be considered for “rotation”' (note: "considered")

        "Best option if Ward not nailed."

        "Second best option if Ward not nailed."

        "Third best option if Ward not nailed."

        "Essential that Ward starts first 2 games."

        "Ward’s potential aside, Fabianski looks the best value 4.5 keeper" (note: "potential")

        "Fabianski would mostly be your back-up, autosub option"

        "you are allocating a precious Liverpool slot to a goalkeeper, so you would want to be playing him most weeks"

        "you could consider downgrading one a bit later in the season"

        "selling Ward"

        "Fabianski could act as back-up for Ward"

        "if Ward were dropped"

        "if you believe Ward’s position to be insecure"

        "downgrade Begovic"

        "unwise to downgrade Ward at that time"

        "Whether Ward becomes nailed or not, you have a good early back-up in Begovic"

        "should Ward be be dropped or should you wish to downgrade Ward for the additional 0.5."

        "Guaita offers protection for the beginning of the season, and can be sold"

        "to take the flack if Ward is dropped"

        "in the event that Ward does not start as expected (if he actually is expected to start, of course)."

        "viable to downgrade Ward"

        "you would need to be certain that Ward is Klopp’s preferred shot-stopper before the Gameweek 1 deadline."

        "assuming both players are fit and nailed"

        "one of the better back-ups for Ward in case of emergency."

        "regardless of Ward’s nailedness".

        Alternatively, you could just read the article 😉

  19. Rust Cohle
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Because there is lots of time until GW1, I took a stab at assembling a team with no City assets. Looked to maximize points per pound by investing heavy at the back. Also looked for talismen and attacking assets on set pieces, corners, and penalties. Tried to make this as much of a fire and forget team as possible. Tried to not pay much mind to short-term fixtures. Bailly and Bellerin are the biggest concerns. I think Bellerin is a high ceiling/high floor guy. Banking on Bailly starting GW1 and locking down his spot based on good performances and Mou’s habitual nature with selection. Critique away!

    Ryan

    Azpi/Robertson/Bailly/Bellerin

    Salah/Eriksen/Groß/Mili

    Auba/King

    Steele - Jiménez/Wilshere/Wan-Bissaka

  20. Siva Mohan
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    missing some 'breaking news' in the article 😉

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Missing an article in your 'breaking news'

  21. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    You're a machine, fella.

    Nice work.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers Virg

  22. Mince n Tatties
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Think I'll just go for Alisson and a £4.0M backup 😉

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Prefer a Bettinelli/Fabianski rotation personally 🙂

  23. dabla27
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    That awkward moment you write up a comprehensive article and it's completely blown apart in 24 hours.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      See title and introduction.

      I also wrote it a few days before publication. I enjoy writing, so it's no bother.

      Besides, some people might want protection for Alisson. You never know 😀

  24. rowang
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi everyone, Wondering if someone will rmt and tell me what they think.

    Pickford/Forster
    Jagielka Bellerin Robbo Bissaka
    Sane Salah Martial Mkhitaryan
    Firmino Aubameyang

    Bennet Stephens Quaner

    thanks.

    1. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Lookin a bit old and weather-beaten