Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.
Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory). And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.
THE CONCEPT
We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on. If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.
We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom. That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.
We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.
GAMEWEEK 1 PREVIEW
Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW1:
And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:
According to the crowd, Liverpool look most likely to score goals in the opening weekend, and it’s no surprise that Mo Salah is the runaway leader in the captain poll. Based on these predictions, it might be worth investing in another of their attacking assets too.
Chelsea and Man City are also predicted to score at least two goals each, and the latter is notable given their difficult fixture away at Arsenal. The crowd is clearly expecting Man City to do well this season, and it will be interesting to see the number of predicted goals when they have a kind home fixture.
In defence, Chelsea, Man United, and Liverpool look most likely to keep a clean sheet, with Bournemouth and Watford the pick of teams with cheaper defenders.
Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.
Good luck for Round 1!
