Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Feed tha Sheep
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    I currently have two Everton keepers (9.0m) as there fixtures are great to start off and Pickford does great in baps. But do you think better off with two 4.5s? I just prefer having a keeper and not having to change every week between two 4.5s...thoughts?

    1. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Think you've argued your own case to stick with Pickford

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Could you not just have a £4.5m and a £4.0m? Saves 0.5m

      1. Feed tha Sheep
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Yeah could do but I just like Everton’s fixtures. Anyone at 4.5 you think is better than Pickford?

        1. luke25
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Not as a player but scoring wise there will be one or two who get more points than him across the season, it's just which one is the issue aha I'm gonna go Rui and a 4m I think

    3. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      For their defence I don’t think the fixtures are that great. Wolves should be more than up for it gw1, gw2 MIGHT be ok. Cherries away gw3 not best odds for clean sheet IMO. But I might be wrong LOL

  2. Tabbara
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Davies or Bailly?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      D

      1. Azathoth
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Davies

  3. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    As of now, I've just fitted in Jota, by sacrificing Neves, Keane and Fabianski (to afford move), anyhow, if Costa is a first teamer (based on team news section) is he a better option at 1.5 cheaper?

    1. Flowsick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Was so a few days ago, but has had competition brought in, while Jota is WOL talisman and should be safer from rotation.

      1. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        My tthoughts based on everything I've read, you've reinforced what my persuasion has been. Cheers

  4. BadgersBoys
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Best 11 players to pick for GW1?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      What's your budget?

      1. BadgersBoys
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        84m

        1. Mayor of Flair
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Salah
          Azpi
          DDG
          Alonso
          Eriksen
          Hazard
          Aguero
          Auba
          Kane
          Sterling
          KDB

          1. BadgersBoys
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 24 days ago

            Locked in. Cheers, mate. Don't know what everyone is stressing over. Piece of piss this.

            1. Mayor of Flair
              • 12 Years
              8 years, 24 days ago

              Simple game when it's played well

          2. amit1964
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 24 days ago

            kdb for mane

    2. Bragazeti
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Foster
      AWB / Darmian / TAA
      Bilva / Lucas / Mata / Fraser
      Firmino / Tosun / Benteke
      Bench - 4.0

  5. odannyboys
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    will Pickford start? no pre-season.

  6. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Can't see any signings that would affect WB or Peltier!

    1. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Of the two, I'd say Peltier more nailed, I have both. Again, thanks to the team news section

  7. Kroos Kontrol
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is Bailly a safe bet to start the first few games?

  8. Whazza
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Surely Jairo Riedewald is too good to rot on Palace's bench?

    Question is whose starting place is in danger, Tomkins perhaps?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Martial too good to rot on United's bench but here we are.

      1. SackWenger
        • 17 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        But will he rot there. He can still be sold.

        1. Mayor of Flair
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Hope he stays but stops the rot

    2. palace ash
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Riedewald is a midfielder in the real world. Won't be playing in defence this season. McArthur is playing in his position.

  9. jg7u
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    It m might come down to this, which pair is better?

    A) Mane + zaha
    B) Moura + Firmino

    No other Spurs assets.

  10. John Colby (C)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Any other better 6.0m midfielders than Townsend?

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Much better at 6.5

      1. John Colby (C)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Thanks for the reply. So is Jota the best of the 6.5m miss?

  11. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    1) Eriksen or Lacazette
    2)Someone convince me on Richarlison
    3)Best 4.5 set and forget keeper

  12. DRIZ ✅
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Everyone saw how tired Kane was at the WC. I will hold off for a few GW's however would not be surprised if he does start.

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Can't see it though. To much dollars for someone who is unlikely to start.

  13. Drop Dead Tsimikas
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    G2G or tinker?

    Foster (Fab)
    DLuiz / Robbo / Daniels (Hagergjonaj, W-B)
    Salah (c) / Mahrez / Siggie / Jota (Hudson-Odoi)
    Firmino (v) / Laca / Arnie

      1. Drop Dead Tsimikas
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Done.

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Tinker

      Daniels, Siggy, Laca out

  14. Pieterke30
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    G2G?

    DDG
    Robertson, Mendy, Kabasele
    Salah, Bilva, Richarlison, Cairney
    Aguero, Auba, Arnie

    Stekel, WB, Peltier, HO

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Please post RMTs in the correct article 🙂

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

      1. Pieterke30
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        I did but no one replied there, it does not work. So stop suggesting to do that, people won't.

        1. Rotation's Alter Ego
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          If you have a complaint about the rules, please email geoff@fantasyfootballscout.co.uk 🙂

          Sorry Geoff 😉

        2. rainy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Sorry, but RAE's right. If you post an RMT here because you think it'll stand out more, then everyone does that and it defeats the purpose of having the other article.

  15. Gustavo
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is Peltier expected to start?

  16. jai1212
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A. Richarlison, King and Shaw
    B. Fraser, Tosun and Mendy

    1. Tev
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B for sure

  17. Ady87
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Salah/King of Eriksen/Auba?

  18. VRP
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A. Salah + Mkhi

    B. Alexis + Mane

  19. cescpistols1
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Best 5.5m defender?

    1. Ruud000
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      PvA

  20. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Kun Zaha and Arnie good enough??

    Luiz for 5.5 def or PVA/Coleman/other??

  21. ignis88
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    RMT - reckon I need any changes?

    Foster

    Robertson - D Luiz - Mendy

    Salah - Bsilva - Mane - Rich

    King - Zaha - Aguero

    Hammer Wan-Bissaka Cedric Hudson Odoi

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Feedback for that team is best found over on the RMT article

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

      1. ignis88
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        thanks

  22. Butcher
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Lads who would you pick

    A) Kepa and VVD/Robbo
    B) Lloris and VVD/Robbo
    C) Alisson and Davies

    Cheers

  23. BadgersBoys
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    I had a dream last night that Kane got a hatty. Just saying.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      It’s the only way Kane is viable this year, if you could somehow time getting him in to coincide with braces and hattricks, outside of that he’s poor value

    2. BarrowAFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I had a dream last night that I was going out with Margot Robbie. Doubt it'll come true. Just saying.

  24. fplfanatica
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    For those that are interested the midfielders and forwards I'm considering for GW1.

    https://fplfanatic.blog/2018/08/09/midfielder-analysis/

    https://fplfanatic.blog/2018/08/10/forward-analysis/

  25. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Tick, tock, tick, tock....

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      What's happening ?

    2. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

    3. Bragazeti
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Hope the game won't update for hours this time round

  26. cescpistols1
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Luiz/Coleman/PvA for 5.5m? Have Wan-Bissaka, Lowton, Mendy and Bednarek.

  27. Oggle22
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    G2G?
    Ederson
    Luiz Daniels Kompany
    Salah(c) Richarlison Pedro Mane
    King Aguero(VC) Firmino

    Steele Wan-Bis jazz-Richards Romeou

  28. Frank Koscielny
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Can someone convince me on which two 7.0 (or less striker) I should get?
    - Arnie have awful fixtures and WHU have brought in several new players. Hard to tell how they'll play
    - Tosun have great fixtures, but Everton have been utter shiite preseason (and I have Richarlison)
    - Zaha does apparently wants away from Palace and there is some rotation risk
    - Mitrovic is just signed and hard to tell if he'll fit into the team - although I've read he'll probably be on pens
    - King has been very good preseason, but Bournemoth have not

    Please advise!

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Zaha at palace is no rotation risk whatsoever

      1. Frank Koscielny
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Cheers. Would you get him though, and which other one?

        1. Your Mum's Athletic
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          King Zaha and Arnie all good options, go with your gut

          1. Frank Koscielny
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 24 days ago

            Cheers!

    2. Naboo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      - Arnie is a fixture proof beast
      - Tosun isn't and Everton have signed just as many players as West Ham
      - Zaha is a wait and see for me
      - Mitrovic has already fit in to that team last season on loan. Good pick
      - King decent also.

      Arnie for me, then King and Mitro

  29. AceKn1ght
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Hands up, who’s excited?

    1. AceKn1ght
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      \O/

    2. Frank Koscielny
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      o/

  30. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Who is panicking?

    1. AceKn1ght
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      \O/

    2. Mayor of Flair
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      SERENITY NOW