Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    The article above is actually great for the sky sports game because the prices are ridiculous for the more commonly talked about players.
    These are ideal Townsend was in there already but now I have Frazer in as well after reading it.

  2. EspanYOLO
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Really happy with my team so far.

    The only thing niggling me is Richarlison. Is he really a good buy?

    Who else in that position is worth it?? (Already have Jota)

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Maybe Sessegnon or Milivojevic

    2. The Mighty I
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I think Rich is a good option to start with - Maddison at 6.5 (Leicester) once he gets United out the way could be a shout

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Milivojevic basically lost the first 5 games of last year when FDB was playing him as a centreback & yet still smashed Richarlison last year on FPL points

      1. Mr-Inbetween
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        I don't think the smashed part is true, Mili had about 20 more points but also played over 200 minutes more. Yes he beat him on FPL points, but didn't smash him.

    4. QPRUTD
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Keep him

  3. Chockky
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Mahez+King
    or
    Townsend+Vardy ( sub to play first 1/2 gw for Vardy)

  4. Mikey44
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    What is wiser?

    A- 5th mid is Cairney and I start Josh King every game
    B- 5th mid is a 4.5 and I keep 0.5 in the bank to upgrade King to Arnautovic for GW2 (West ham are home to BOU for gw2)

    1. GoonerByron
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

      Wouldn't go King for 1 GW if you want him, give him a few weeks at least.

    2. Root
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

      Personally I'm planning to bench my Bournemouth attacker in GW 4 for Cairney.

    3. dbeck
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I’ve done b and held 0.5 back but that’s edging my bets as I have mitrovic and king so want security to move one to a 7m if need be

  5. jlut
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Best 4.5 mid and 4.5 def?

    1. Invincibles
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Tomkins, Stephens

    2. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Tomkins and McDonald.

      Even better is to go 4m def like W-B and upgrade the 4.5mid to Ralls or Neves

  6. The Mighty I
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Can we post RMT’s here or is there still a different thread for those?

  7. lennie123456789
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/91w6cp/unai_emerys_history_rotating_fullbacks/

    If anyone is thinking on punting on an Arsenal full back avoid Emery has a history of rotating his full backs as shown in this post

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Bellerin is too good to,rotate, who would he rotate him with though?

      1. lennie123456789
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Lichsteiner I was thinking

      2. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Leich will get games 100%

    2. noquarternt
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Got a lot of Europa games as well.

  8. Ninjaa
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Famous last words, but I think I'm done. Thoughts please lads?

    Patricio
    Mendy Robertson B.Davies
    Salah Mane B.Silva Jota
    Aguero King Mitrovic

    Fabianski Gunarsson Bednarek Von Bissaka

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      RMT thread please. But I think you knew that already 😉

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

      1. Ninjaa
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Oh yeah, slipped my mind

    2. Man Chest Hair United
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Nice team ninja.

      Mine is the same except Richarlison for Jota and Zaha for mitro

      1. Ninjaa
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Cheers mate, yeah close picks there, either options could do well. Good luck

    3. Gruu
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Jota or Richarlison please?

      1. Ninjaa
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Jota

  9. FPL_352
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A) Mane, Neves, Tomkins
    B) Richalison, Jota, Robertson

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B

    2. dbeck
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B

  10. Invincibles
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A) BSilva + Jota
    B) Eriksen + Cairney

    1. Gol D Roger
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I have all except Jota

      That being said from that option, def A

    2. Ninjaa
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A imo

  11. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A) Robbo, Mendy, PvA

    B) VVD, Walker, Sakho

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

    2. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A is far more attacking so I’d go that

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

    4. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Thanks guys

  12. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Auba/Laca - really want one of them but those 2 first fixtures...
    Assess and then get one in early WC i reckon

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Seems sensible

    2. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I will probably get both at some stage.

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        I've been thinning that too

        1. Your Mum's Athletic
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Thinking*

    3. FISSH
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I reckon just go for it

    4. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I wouldn't be surprised to see them score in both those fixtures to be honest

    5. Lazaretti
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Save ft and bring Arsenal players infor GW3

    6. Springbank
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Start with Aguero with a for the first two then transfer out for one or the other with more info on position/game time etc..

  13. TATTOOED_2
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Last headache - Tosun or King?

    Team as it stands:
    Patricio
    Robertson Daniels Tomkins
    Neves Mane Eriksen Salah Richarlison
    Aguero Tosun

    Fabianski Mendy AWB Kamara

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      King

    2. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Tosun based on fixtures

  14. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Lacazette or abumeyang?

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Lad- hairyest B&B seemly

    2. seanysheep
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Lacazette +1.5 for me

      1. Pieterke30
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        I don't think he will start GW1 but that's just my opinion right

    3. LangerznMash
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Read the article.

  15. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Oooh

    Bernard 6.0 🙂
    Gomes 5.5
    Mina 5.5 🙁

    1. JoeJitzu +42
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Anguissa 4.5?

    2. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I think the Mina price is OK he is the same price as baines and coleman.
      I thought he might be 6.0m.
      How quickly will he settle himself in England and settle the Everton defence.
      That is the thing that is worrying me.

    3. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Is Bernard nailed?

      1. Andy_Social
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        I'd wait a bit.

  16. Tauruspt
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Currently have Mendy Aguero

    Do I go Ederson
    Or
    Kepa to keep a space free for a city mid once their midfield is a bit more settled (kdb and d silva back)

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Keep space free

  17. The Joker
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Apologies if this isnt legal but enter code 1333652-301937 for entry into league with following rules. 1st 20 entries. Playing all chips during the season is allowed. Changing subs and cpt week to week allowed. No transfers allowed at all apart from chips.
    Get in

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      "isn't legal"... I think you'll be ok Capone 😉

  18. MANGE TOUT RODNEY
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Any final thoughts on the below? Still not 100% happy! Thanks.

    Foster

    Mendy – Robertson – Shaw

    Salah – Eriksen – Pedro – Richarlison

    Aguero – Zaha – King

    Bench:
    Ryan; Cairney; Daniels; Tomkins

    1. umerlfc
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      You can just consider 4m defenders like W-B or Peltier for Daniels to save the 0.5 maybe?

  19. umerlfc
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Which combination looks the best?

    A) Auba + B.Silva
    B) Firmino + Mahrez

    1. Ragabolly
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      B

  20. Jatt
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    United fans, whos more likely to play most games early on, shaw or darmian? How bad is valencia’s injury and will young take shaws spot soon?

    1. Baberto
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Darmain

    2. Invincibles
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Darmian I reckon

  21. Baberto
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    A. 5-3-2 with
    Mo Mili Richarli Cairney Brooks
    Auba Kun Quaner

    B. 5-2-3
    Mo Bilva Cairney Fraser Stephens
    Kun Bobby King

    If A, Mili+Brooks or Townsend+Fraser?

  22. Ninjaa
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is B.Silva nailed for opening few fixtures lads?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Who knows?

      Ah, Pep. He pretty much said so.

      But who knows?

  23. Mayor of Flair
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    When you rest, you are a king, surveying your estate. Look at the woodland. The peacocks on the lawn. Be the king of your own calm kingdom.

    1. BUZZBOMB ♡
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Give it 48 hours and it'll look desolated and blackened in a post-apocalyptic wasteland surrounded by a wall over which is a promised oasis of bounty and life.

    2. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      No rest until GW1 deadline!

  24. Hobolicious
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    What are your general thoughts on the 7.0m-duel up top? I am struggling to decide who should partner Agüero and King.

    Isolated, which one of the following do you see as the best option at the start of the season?

    A) Tosun
    B) Arnautovic
    C) Zaha

    1. GE
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I'm on Arnie and Zaha now.
      Zaha vs. Arnie - then Arnie for me

    2. umerlfc
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A if you don't have Richarlison; B otherwise

    3. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      For me Tosun, even though I just took him out!

  25. GE
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    1) or 2) please? 🙂

    1) Luiz and Peltier (play Luiz every week)
    2) Tomkins and Doherty (or other 4.5) + 0.5 itb (rotate Tomkins and Doherty)

    Patricio
    Robertson/Mendy/xxx (xxx, W-B)

  26. luke25
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is anyone going without Salah at all on here?

    1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Yes I am.
      Grand team on paper heavy in defence one 4.0m
      Three man mid two 4.5's
      Two big strikers and a 6.5

      I even have .5 in the bank.

    2. noquarternt
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Getting nervy...but maybe...

  27. adased
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is it likely Jack Simpson will play?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      They were trying to shift him out but failed. So I don't think so.

  28. Shark Team
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Rotation risk for Robertson or not?

  29. Kizza_10
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Which do you think is better ?

    A. Richarlison & Arnie

    B. Cairney & Firmino

  30. Catsandhats
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    How much should we be spending in defence? I’ve got a total of 34m - 5.5, 4, 6, 5.5, 5.5, 4, 4

    Is this to much?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I'd say 7 defenders is too much, yes.