Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. FPL Marc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Dilemma. I want Spurs, Man City and Liverpool defensive coverage.

    Each has a 5.5 GK (Lloris, Ederson, Allison).
    Each has a strong 6.0 DEF (Davies, Mendy, Robertson)

    What do you think is the best 3-man combination, taking rotation and attacking returns into account?

    Thanks.

    1. Reckoner.
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I've gone Alisson, Mendy & Robertson myself.

      Only worry being Alisson taking up a Liverpool spot but that's fine for me.

      Salah, Robertson, Alisson should be season keepers.

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Lloris Mendy Robertson

      For Spurs defenders I think Sanchez is probably the safer pick, with Rose staying they're likely to rotate

    3. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Davies Mendy and robbo with a 4.5m keeper

    4. Ninjaa
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I have

      Patricio Fab
      Mendy Robertson B.Davies

    5. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Ederson, vvd, vertonghen

  2. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Better option?

    a. moura 3-5-2
    b. king 3-4-3

    1. GE
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

    2. Chockky
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      King personally

  3. Reckoner.
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A) Tomkins & Arnatovic

    B) Kabasele & Zaha

    Already have Wan-Bissaka & Townsend in my team

    1. GE
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

    2. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

  4. Mayor of Flair
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    If you want to feel calm, eat more raw fruit and vegetables, yoghurt, milk and seeds.

    1. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Rubbish. I'm on rabbit food due to my blood sugar levels. I'm not calm, I'm bored and miserable. Want ICE CREAM!

  5. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Will TAA start?

    1. Granville
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I don't know for sure but he's good value at 5m for the following games.

      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Touch & Go for GW1. I've got him in for the long haul and have decent bench cover for now.

  6. @FPL_Chess
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I think this article - giving us our differentials - has just tipped the balance into 'too much information.'

    1. @FPL_Chess
      7 years, 11 months ago

      David is such a persuasive writer he's making me reconsider my finalised team, with all three of his differentials. Aargh! It will be interesting to see his final team and to see if he's caught up in his own propaganda 🙂

      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        I've only gone and read it and got in Lacazette 🙁

        1. @FPL_Chess
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Quick, you've still got time to get rid of him. Just seen a podcast by Apple Bonkers and he doesn't think he'll be taking much part of the first two matches. Makes sense, you don't want two attackers against Man City & Chelsea.

  7. palace ash
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Best 4.5/4.0 set and forget goalkeeper combos. Trying to focus on first 8 or so GWS.

    Currently on Begovic/Boruc

    A) Begovic/Boruc (good fixtures)
    B) Ryan/Button (poor fixtures, high save points)
    C) Hennessey/Speroni (good fixtures, rotation with Guaita)
    D) Lossl/Hamer (Aweful first 2 fixtures)
    E) Patricio/Norris (rotation with Ruddy)

    1. Shark Team
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      C

  8. mdm
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Which option is better:

    A. Shaw, Jota, Firmino and King
    B. Cedric, Mane, Zaha and Arnie

    Thanks!

    1. Reckoner.
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Prefer B except for Cedric, prefer Tomkins or Kabasele @ 4.5

  9. FredrikH
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    DDG Boly or Ederson Shaw
    (Already have Mendy)

  10. Astronautovic
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Who will play instead of Ryan If he goes to the asian games?

    1. Eden Wizard
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Is this actually gonna happen? Hadn’t entertained the idea!

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Australia don't compete in that tournament, do they?

      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Would help if they were Asian 😆

    3. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      someone said earlier that's not until Jan so no worries for now

      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Well that’s wrong

        1. kennethrhcp
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          is it? https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=ak9tW6-DKISHgAbj_7qgCA&q=2019+asia+cup&oq=2019+asia&gs_l=psy-ab.3.0.0l10.1213.154870.0.155343.29.21.6.2.2.0.113.1752.19j2.21.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..0.29.1921...0i131k1j0i3k1.0.sjxiNzM1hls#sie=lg;/m/011q4twj;2;/m/01l5_n;mt;fp;1

      2. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        There's an Oceania tournie in Jan, I think.

        Fair enough re the confusion as Australis are "Asian" for World Cup qualification, but not for regional tournaments like this. I THINK.

        1. Astronautovic
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Thanks man. That's very useful

        2. vartshk
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          This is correct. I’ve played at Asian games and no sign of the aussies.

    4. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      australia arent playing

  11. POGLU
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Anyone taking a punt on Moura or Keita for 2 weeks?

    1. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Moura for me

    2. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Moura for me

    3. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Moura yes - he should get serious gametime in Son's absence and has been hot in pre-season.
      Keita not yet as there are 3 better Pool options for me. Cd convert Mane to him further down the line.

      1. teenagemutantheroskrtels
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Is son Deffo not playing thanks first few games

    4. hoganzo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I'm currently on Moura, but contemplating Mata for the extra 0.5 in the bank... It's a tough one. Who knows how Spurs will start, and United are a bit all over the place, but could be great differentials.

  12. Invincibles
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    3rd def and bench option

    A) David Luiz, Tomkins
    B) Bavies, Wan Bissaka

    1. POGLU
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      B

  13. Mayor of Flair
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    When you’re feeling under pressure, do something different. Roll up your sleeves, or eat an orange.

  14. Eden Wizard
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Bilva cash cow

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Moooooooo

      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Triple rise inbound

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          I’d say he could be 8.5 by GW4, just as he’s losing his place & perfect timing to switch to Pogba

        2. Andy_Social
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Get him up to 10m and get a straight swap to KDB, eh?

  15. The Head-Ake
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A) Eriksen, Firmino, Ings
    B) Mane, Zaha, Arnie

  16. Michelle Davin
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A) Firmino & Doherty & Mcdonald

    or

    B) Zaha & Robertson & any 5.5 mid.

  17. AriseSirGiggsy
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Bobby Reid - 5.5
    First 3 matches: bou, NEW, hud
    Good value?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yes doubt he will score much

      1. AriseSirGiggsy
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        even against those 3?
        his championship record stands up to what Mitrovic and Jota achieved

    2. Eden Wizard
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Playing POO

      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Can't see Cardiff scoring anywhere this season.

  18. Gaffa914
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Getting cold feet over David Luiz , should I be worried?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      No should be nailed

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      He’s a mentalist, anything could happen with him on the pitch

      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Sideshow bob

  19. temo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    A Mane Laca
    B Bilva Auba

    1. seanysheep
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      A

  20. Tauruspt
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Rashford worth a shout at 7mil?
    Likely to play CF?

  21. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Davies or Mendy?

    1. QPRUTD
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      mendy

    2. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Mendy

  22. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Is Moreno likely to share the left back slot with robbo?

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yep. 25/13 split roughly Robbo/Moreno

      Robbo the better left back so will get the tougher games.

      Moreno will get the easier home games

      1. kennethrhcp
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        ah Max... I was all set on Rob even with Moreno capt in a friendly... VVD might get a spot

        1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          Whatever you do, make sure you go with your gut - if your gut says Robbo DO NOT get VVD & vice-versa, it’s too painful otherwise.

          1. kennethrhcp
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            haha what if I told you my gut has me with double everton @ the back 🙂 Pick/Stek/Coleman

      2. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        Going vvd instead I think

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I'm sure he'll get the odd game here and there as they progress further in Europe. But for now my guess is Robbo starts

  23. PeteMorr
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Who to captain in my Salah-less team?

    A - Aguero
    B - Sanchez
    C - Firmino
    D - Mane

    1. @FPL_Chess
      7 years, 11 months ago

      D.

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      D

  24. Slabhead4ballondor
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Patricio (Foster)
    Davies-Mendy-Robbo-Shaw (AWB)
    Salah(c)-Eriksen-BSilva-Jota (Cairney)
    Aguero(vc)-King (Kamara)
    £0.5m ITB

    Happy with midfield. Still unsure on Shaw +Foster and whether to downgrade both and keep more ITB.
    King +£0.5m > Tosun, Zaha, Arnie for me right now.

    Any comments appreciated - good luck guys

  25. @FPL_Chess
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Speaking of information, does anyone know who'll be No. 2 between the sticks at Wolves. Ruddy or Norris. Norris deserves his chance but Ruddy is the more experienced!

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Ruddy

      1. @FPL_Chess
        7 years, 11 months ago

        That's what I suspected. Seems unfair on Norris. Thanks anyway.

  26. umerlfc
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Best 4.5 defender to get apart from Tomkins?

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Doherty

    2. QPRUTD
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Cedric
      Schlupp

    3. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Boly

  27. Granville
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 17 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Aubameyang is on penalties and Lacazette isn't nailed on. It's a stretch to think he can match him.

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      If Laca plays centrally dont think it is.. They both will get some assists too. Pens swings it for Auba but how many pens will they get? Remember spurs last season.

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Do we know for sure about penalties? Remeber Laca taking the one last season? I had Auba that day & still cursing it

    3. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      ultimately, when Arsenal try to play both and get panned, Laca will be dropped

    4. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Aruba seems to be on the wing while Lacazette is central so should match him I think

  28. Gustavo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Who do we think will start in Citys denfense on Sunday? Mendy most nailed?

    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yes

  29. ShaunGoater123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Is it worth downgrading King to Ings if it allows:

    - 5th midfielder to be a 5m to rotate with Cairney & Ings
    - Upgrades 3rd defender from 4.5 > Shaw
    - Keeps 0.5 ITB (i'd have this anyway) to upgrade 4.5 goalie to Arsenal in 2 /3 weeks

    1. QPRUTD
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Sounds good actually

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Ings looks mega value. Shoe in for my team as soon as he starts starting, 5.5m for a decent lacy striker is basically free

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        *pacy

  30. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I'm looking for a 4.5 defender. Already have Wan-Bissaka, Cook, Foster and Fabianski. Thanks!