Useful info to consider. Not sure I'll shift him, just because I have other things I'd like to change

Great analysis. The difference to last year is Salah is worth 13M and has high ownership so no risk of his price increasing too much if he's transferred out in that period. Feels a bit dangerous getting him out and then struggling to getting him back in though.

I'll wait and see how he does in GW3 and GW4

Quite sad that pages are going so quickly that this post will be lost

Surely mentioned that transfers must be considered here. 2 FTs to use Salah and another 2 FTs at lest to get him back. Over 4 GWs is tight even if you don't have any issues. I'm not a use only FTs kinda manager but it just all seems too tight. I'll have other Cap options and for now that seems enough. Salah stays.

Liverpool assets are season keepers for me. Title-winning teams perform regardless of the fixture. Not gonna pay a premium to transfer them out for a few games.

At the start of the season, I felt like I'd own him for 38 GWs. However, I was curious as to how my team could look without him and at some point this season, I want to give it a go. I played around last night with hypothetical transfers and loved the strength of my team without Salah. I feel like the only match I'd captain him in between GW4 and GW8 would have been SOU and I'm happy to captain Mane that week. I may end up taking the plunge.

I am looking to do a 2 week switch to (Salah to Hazard) for gw4 and 5. Bringing back salah in gw 6. Of cos things could change by gw6, as of now it is the way for me.

It might not change the statistics much, but the Mane red card at City should be factored in. That significantly affected that game as Liverpool had looked threatening up to then. Of course no guarantee that Salah would have had returns if it had stayed 11 v 11.

No returns at all v United is problematic, but maybe Mourinho will already be gone before the first meeting 🙂

Really interesting, something to consider, especially for those that are looking to capitalise on some early fixtures.

I was part of the 3 failed Kanexits, including the fated 2nd one with back to back hattties so I know how this could bite, but the 4 week funding could prove lucrative.

Only concern is the transfers around that period are solely focussed on Salah. The rest of the team would have to be in good shape to handle the hockey cokey.

Thank you for this 🙂

I believe that it goes down, at least for me, if you consider tot and che as tough fixtures from attaccking perspective. Seeing tot and che play (only two matches for both, I know) I am confident that Liverpool will score. And from what I saw Salah is still the main threat.

Anyway i understand the temptation to shift for the likes of Hazard, but I am not that brave I guess 🙂

Salah still averaged 4.2ppg in his away matches against the rest of the big six last season.
So I wouldn't captain him in game-weeks 5 & 7, but I probably wouldn't get rid of him from my team either.
The other question is what to do about other Liverpool assets such as Mane and Robertson.
Do we keep them in our squad and possibly bench them, or do we sell them and then get them back later with either hits or a wildcard?

I'm not too concerned about his record against the top sides because Liverpool have strengthened across the board and they will dominate games more often and more completely.

Even getting a top keeper helps - the fewer goals Liverpool concede the more often their opponents will be going into the latter stages of a game behind and needing a goal (and leaving themselves open to counterattacks).

I got Salah so I can captain him almost every week and this isn't going to change unless his stats drop alarmingly. Sure, Aguero scored a 20-pointer in the last game but I actually think he will frustrate cappers this year, and I don't want to own an 11m+ player who I can't/won't put the armband on.

So let's see, but with three attacking returns from two I can't see Salah not getting my captaincy pretty much every week. I might need to ditch Alisson to allow Mané though as, between them, they are incendiary.

at least worthy of consideration i reckon. the good thing about him costing so much is that he can easily be taken in and out of your team without worrying about team value, unlike last year.

I'm being more aggressive at this point whilst the bandwagons are forming, happy to ride the odd fall here and there but mainly trying to build some TV. After my first WC I tend to start ignoring it though. Points > pounds

As the old adage goes, points over pounds. I understand the importance of TV, however, there will always be budget picks and good alternatives. Certainly hits aren’t warranted out of fear of dropping 0.1. Past winners of FPL often have a low to average TV compared to the FFS community

I've missed the Richarlison train due to constant price changes, but my hand was forced earlier than I'm comfortable with getting Alonso in this week due to price rises . Currently neglecting my bench.

Proce rises and falls are highly influencing my transfers in.

Surely one or the other day the early transfer made will backfire.

I don’t really care about it. When you pick the right players, you get price rises automatically.

Also, when I get a lot of rises and one fall, I don’t care. You can’t win them all. My TV is 100.8 despite keeping King.

I've got transfers in my head and i'm prioritising those that will fall/rise as much as i can. I've managed to only have one price fall in my team so going ok so far. Don't want to start taking hits just to get on bandwagons.

Im ignoring price changes going forward....
Feels liberating actually

Generally pick the best value players, and yes, I make transfers earlier to avoid price drops or get rises. Early on, it's especially important because an 0.1m rise or fall basically costs you the full 0.5m.

They influence my transfers, Ill make them early in order to get the rise or avoid the fall.
I am.even conteplating Bilva > Mkhi for a hit atm, as I think Mkhi is a better option... but the sensible choice is to wait for another week and reassess, which is what I'll most probably do.

But I wont be taking early transfers when CL starts and I get a SV of around 101m, as Ive been burned by CL injuries before.

I think being more aggressive on fallers is a great idea. It should provide a wider pool of players and help steer away from the template. I think Ozil is too expensive but if he keeps falling down to say 7.5m then he starts to become appealing. The templates picks of Silva etc may then start to move to Ozil. There is less onus on the template.

As for pounds. I think it is more relevant to move early if you are looking longer term. I moved for Maddison & Hazard for KDB & Gross last week at the middle of the week as price changes would price me out of the move. To make money I should have gone for Richarlson and Mane (bit I preferred the other 2 so I didn't chase the money).

When price of a player rise, it is because he shows good form. When it falls it is just the opposite. What`s wrong to get players in form or get rid of these out of form for hits?
And another related with this question:
What do You prefer?
A) 100m budget and 0 starting points
B) 100,5 budget and -40 starting points

Like Zoumabloomers I’m being more aggressive this season.
I’ve just taken a -4 to catch a couple of risers and jump on bandwagons faster.

I make a decision on a player-by-player basis. I've got rid of Sanchez and Helder Costa early this week to avoid drops but also because of injury, lack of form, and tough fixtures (Costa has City and is then a rotation risk with Traore). Those early changes made sense - especially as I needed to bite the bullet and get Richarlison and Mkhi in before their rises.

On the flip-side, I'm more than happy to take a 0.1 hit on Siggy and King and keep them for this week's fixture and even keep Siggy beyond that for HUD and WHU. He's a proven FPL points scorer and I believe returns are around the corner. I also suffered a drop on Zohore (4.9) but he's my 12th man and he has Huddersfield this weekend who just shipped six so I was in no rush to move him on.

TLDR; it depends on the player.

I dont let price changes affect my transfer strategy too much.

However if there are players in my squad who are dropping in price and have a poor run of fixtures ahead, I will make them a priority as my next transfer.

Same applies to the catching player rises. Should a player like Richarlison start soaring in price, as he has already and his next few fixtures look appealing then bring him in as soon as possible.

Otherwise i would normally prefer to wait to make a transfer just before the deadline, when all the options are weighed up.

Its still very early in the season to worry about SV. Having said that, I would focus on my mini-league usually and if i'm on top i don't mind taking a odd hit to catch a rise. Only thing i would be careful is not to bring in someone because of last two games alone (like Cook, Neves or Alli) but more interested in those who have decent run of good fixtures and higher ceiling (like Alonso, Richarlison or Mkhi)

I had to WC, as my deffence is a mess, so will catch almost all of the early rises. Hopefully there are still more people paying the game then there will be after the first international break, so maybe i can build some tv value. Currently at 101.2 and is going to raise to 101.5 until friday.

I've had a successful start with 91 and 82 points respectively. But with no Aguero who I want to Captain in upcominmg home fixtures, no Chelsea or Arsenal, no Richarlison and Lacazette, AWB, Sterling in my team I decided to be aggressive and WC. So capturing price rises and players with good fixtures coming up. It's not a play I would advocate for others but I'm hoping to continue performing strongly and take no transfers for the next few weeks and then doing some mini-wildcards as when necessary.

I think being aggressive with your strategy is ok (early WC, early transfers, taking hits) as long as you can accept the that the risk reward ratios are altered and you're more likely to get burnt.

Couldn't care less. The game is about points not pounds. More focused in having the right players. Values will take care of themselves if you have the right players.

I try to not to worry about them too much - all your future transfers will be altered by one 'missed' rise or fall, which can actually end up making your team better anyway, you'll never know (Butterfly effect).

The only player I'm worried about is Mendy, but that's because he looks like a great pick, not because his price is rising. That being said, most fallers are falling for a reason (notable exceptions players like Bavies, Auba, Eriksen, Firmino) and an upgrade can usually be found.

I think you can spend too long chasing the rises which is what I did last season and it caused me to rush to much. This year i think I will be happy to let the odd 0.1 slide as I have done by keeping Josh king this week. I can understand those who are desperately trying to get in the likes of mane and richarlison who could rise 0.5 within the space of 2 weeks; but if it's just a few small changes and you need to wait later in the week for information I think that's a better long term strategy.

After promising myself I would be more patient this year, and knowing that there are more than enough value players to make value less important, I just can’t help myself when i see that magic +/ 100% sign. And this is in spite of warnings like KDB’s training injury.

So I have made 2 early FTs trades to both take advantage of rises/falls.

The trouble with this is I always find other trades I am tempted to do come the back end of the week, which makes a hit more of a possibilty.

If I'm pretty much certain that I want to make a transfer (e.g. Sanchez to Mkhi this week) then I'll go for it before prices change & keep an eye on them accordingly. No sense losing 0.1 which, as we all know, is always so vital later in the season.

Helps that my first two bench players are Holebas and Cairney so if it does transpire I get unlucky in the week and injuries occur, I can simply rely on them.

I understand points over pounds argument, but it’s a 38 week marathon. Building TV now leads to a much stronger team at the business end of the season.

Missed Alonso's rise, saved a minus -4, shall have to wait and see

I am not a fan of early transfers to catch rise or avoid fall but I did 3 on Sunday night only because to catch Alonso rise and avoid Jota and King falls! If everything goes right, it saved 0.3 to me and it might be crucial to have that 0.3 in the future. It seems like a season that you need money more comparing to previous ones. There are several reasons:
- premium defenders are performing very well and you need at least 3 of them (in my opinion)
- Salah is 4.0 more expensive
- City and Liverpool seem to occupy 6 places and they are not cheap at all
- Kane, Hazard, Auba not there yet

So I decided to build some TV (by making my transfer moves early not by jumping to silly bandwagons only to make TV) in the first quarter of the season. That being said, things change very quickly in FPL and it is just a plan as a result of 2 GWs.

Interestingly for me, this goes hand in hand with how you start.

This has been the best start I’ve had and I’m less worried about TV as a whole for the team, because a lot of players I have scored well, therefore their prices have risen (Mane, Richarlison, Mendy etc)

HOWEVER, this has allowed me to be TV focused on the unsocial transfers, so my switch from King and Gunnarson to Kamara and Pedro (whilst Pedro being he played I wanted) May actually save me 0.2-0.3 all in.

Because there is less fires to put out, I can worry less about fallers and risers elsewhere, and concentrate on the corners of my team that need polishing.

Determined to go hit-less this season.

I often take a chance of an early transfer to catch rises or avoid drops, especially if I'll be priced out of the trade I want to make otherwise. I also tend to do this more in the early stages of the season, as prices move more, and also for having that benefit of the extra TV for the entire season. As you approach the final stages of the season, the odd 0.1 of TV has minimal effect.

To answer your last question, in the first few weeks of the season, while we are in a period of learning and understanding the landscape of the season, I am more agressive and reactive to events with early transfers and hits to capture price rises, avoid fallers, and get in highly owned players who are performing well.

The aim of this is to try and give myself a decent base (both in terms of OR and in terms of TV/SV) by about GW8-10 from which to attack the rest of the season. Normally around this point I'll wildcard (as there is often also a fixture shift around this point anyway, and the international break in which to mull things over) with the next 15-20 gameweeks in mind, and settle into a more balanced squad, with a stronger bench than in the first section of the season (as rotation by managers is morew prevalent in this period of the season, especially around xmas), rotation options within my team, and 2 captaincy options. In this period I'm not as bothered about price changes and making early transfers as the potential for injuries and suspensions from cup fixtures is higher.

Have ignored price changes so far. Current TV is 101.1M. If there is a transfer i want to make ill make it right away if i gain TV. If not ill wait until deadline - keeping it simple

I'm usually slightly more aggressive with transfers early in the season and this has paid off with tv in the past. This week I have moved early for ings and Alonso with my 2fts as I was in the exact money to afford them. I have paid the price for being patient particularly last season and being priced out of moves.

Sometimes you make the moves to catch the price rises so you don't have to get rid of long term players from your team. Removing the fallers for a riser can be easily reversed if you make a mistake with hindsight, it's not so easy to get them a week or two later when they are 0.2/0.3 more expensive and your player is now 0.1 lower in selling value

Have already done Jota and King to Richarlison and Ings for free. Jota and King have both dropped and I've already made a 0.1m on Richarlison.
Looking at the market, I may end up getting rid of Eriksen for Mkhitaryan for a hit which would again see another drop protected and chances of another profit incoming with Arsenal's set of fixtures 🙂

Points before Pounds

Traditionally I'm a bit of a sucker for TV but this time I'm only transferring early so as not to be priced out of a move. As has been said above, if you're on the right players then price rises tend to happen automatically.

What's overlooked is that

a.) you only get half of the value back as selling price and
b.) you probably will only sell the players who have risen loads if they get injured for a long time, so you do spend most of the time sitting on higher value players.

last year i went in aggresive with transfers and it didnt always work out. But last year the price change market was very slow after the first few weeks. This year, it seems to be much quicker reflecting transfers. Me personally, i will have an eye on the market (Jota out) but wouldnt go all hit crazy to avoid a drop. (King stays)

I can't abide a price drop at this stage. It effectively means your replacement would come from a lower category. I'm less bothered about grabbing risers unless I really want them long term because I likely avoided that player for a reason.

I DO think I will make moves earlier in the week at this stage because of the volatility, which also seems higher this year than last.

I used an FT to do King > Ings to avoid King drop - gave me an even 1m ITB. TV currently 101.2m.

Here's a radical idea. You will all probably hate it.

Price rises and drops are designed to keep teams from being 'template' and to to allow for a bit of enforced differentiation.

My problem with them is that you can plan well and end up with a duff player (gets injured, dropped for disciplinary reasons etc.) while another player who you might not have picked for good reason does well. This means that you get rewarded twice for players who do well initially nad punished badly for the opposite. Many feel that there is no point in continuing if they start badly AND miss all the price rises to be able to fix the situation.

WHAT IF THE VALUE OF SUCCESSFUL PLAYERS DROPPED OVER TIME?

OK hear me out. Basically, the more transfers in a player gets, the cheaper he becomes for everyone else. Therefore Aguero might start at 11.5 but be available for 10.5 a month from now if you don't already have him. If you keep him for his drop and then sell him you get the spend the money elsewhere, but if the trend were reversed and he starts doing badly then you need to sell the be able to realise the difference between buying and selling price, so you need to decide when to ditch. At the moment we're often scared of ditching top assets because they have risen too much in value and they might be impossible to buy back. This encourages stagnation of teams.

Therefore those with a bad start and those with a good start BOTH get good incentives. The latecomer can pick up the good players cheaper, the ones who got him first get to decide when they think the hot streak is due to finish, so that they get maximum selling price. It's like shorting your own players!

This would be a very fun and fair system (which FPL will never adopt and you lot will probably hate) but I'm just throwing this out there for theoretical discussion 🙂

I have been struggling should I take a hit to get Mkhi for Moura or Bilva before he rise. I guess long term it would pay off with those fixtures, especially since Mkhi looks nailed. Any advice?

I have been monitoring potential risers/fallers carefully these opening weeks. Was lucky enough only to have risers the first week, which allowed me to keep my FT.

This week King has fallen to 6.4, but I decided to keep him regardless, because I think he's been somewhat unlucky not to get points, and he should be back on penalties after Wilson's miss.

Did B. Silva to Mkhitaryan last night. The decision was 60 % based on the fact that Silva didn't get any attacking points in a 6-1 match, and 40 % based on the fact that Mkhitaryan looked like he would go up 0.1 tonight (he didn't, but probably will before the deadline).

Monitoring Bednarek and Stephens closely, as I think the price points of 4.0 def/4.5 mid are the most scary fallers. If they go down to 3.9/4.4 you probably need to free up 0.6 by downgrading someone else unlike any other higher priced players who you can always downgrade. So if they look like they'll fall (and they both nearly do) before deadline, I have to decide to replace them now or be stuck with them at least until my first WC.

It's so much easier if you already have potential risers in your initial squad, and not the potential fallers.
That's why it's so important to get your initial squad right, although this does require luck as well as judgement.
So far, 7 of my initial squad have risen in price, for a combined gain of 1.2m, and none of them have fallen.

I don't leap onto every new bandwagon, but I do keep an eye on the price change forecasts and sometimes make my planned transfers early in the week in order to avoid unfavourable price movements (but usually not before the game-week's matches have been completed or before relevant mid-week games - unless a player I want to sell is definitely out for the next few matches and the player I want to replace him with has no more matches that week). This does carry a slight risk that someone might get injured in mid-week but reduces the risk of losing team value - some like to risk it one way, and some the other.

If there are players that you definitely want out and others that you definitely want in, then it may be worth taking a hit or two while you can still afford them, but try to plan ahead and not take too many hits.

Killing me! Picked up Richarlison and Mane after they'd risen 0.2m each.

I have a price rise predicament that I think adds some context to this conversation (whilst also hoping for some advice from people more experienced than myself!)

I really like my team, and don't feel like I NEED another transfer, however I always intended on getting Mkhi in for BSilva as I think he'll outscore over the next 6 GWs. I've already made a transfer, so will need to take a hit to make the swap this week. If I take a -4 today I can beat the Mkhi price rise, then I will have 0.5 ITB which COULD be really useful. It would allow me the flexibility to upgrade Tompkins/Doherty to a 5.0, Cairney to a 5.5 (Fraser?) or Mitrovic to a 7 if he doesn't fire (although I'm hopeful of good returns).

But my team is doing incredible (top 50k), so taking a hit feels a bit wrong and short term I think it will cost me rank in the short term (especially as BSilva could get returns v wolves).

Points vs flexibility is the biggest question here around price changes for me. I effectively will need to get a player worth 0.5 less if I miss a 0.1 price rise. Is this worth it?

Would appreciate people's thoughts. Here is my team:

Foster / Fab
Mendy / Robertson / Tompkins / Doherty / AWB
Salah / Mane / Richarlison / BSilva / Cairney
Aguero / Touson / Mitrovic

I don't mind missing a rise to delay a transfer, or avoid a hit, as you still maintain squad value when you bring the player in. If it's a player that I'm looking to offload, and they are looking like they will fall I'd take a hit, as I don't wanna lose the 0.1m this early on, and over a few game weeks I reckon the new guy will out score the outgoing player.

When do rises happen? Is it random based on demand?

I’m more worried bout the players in my team that lose value. I’m quick to ship them out!

Wow how many drops

Austin 🙁

where is mkhi? 🙂

Cheers TM. Crazy amount of fallers, though hardly any of note.

Thought Bavies would drop too and expecting Mkhi and Aguero rises tomorrow the .

Cheers TM.

dropping likes flies!

ty

Cheers TM, 1 up, 0 down

Thanks, TM.

Cheers, TM.

One more day to consider Ederson.

15 down, kills self

Cheers TM!

Milivojevic to score a set piece this weekend

2-0 wahoo

Cheers TM!

Ty TM.

Is it just my imagination that there seem to be more fallers than risers this year?

Absolutely brutal

I guess this 35 no. fallers should be the record for this year ?!

The template is crystallising.

2-0 cheers TM

How has karius dropped...like who owned him!?

Thanks TM!
Looks like I'm going to have to do Eriksen to Mkhitaryan for a hit...

Cheers TM, Alder at 5.9 could soon be a shout after his distribution the other day.

cheers

There are going to be some cracking bargains later in the season when the injuries hit if prices keep falling like this!

Were all of these fallers expected?
Were any of them below -90% on fplstatistics?

Murray and maybe Zohore (4.9m CAR striker) look like possible options.

I will probably go for Kenedy once the fixtures nicen up

Cardiff will be great defensively. Ignore the penalties and I still think Etheridge may be the top points scorer for 4.5m keepers.

Huddersfield have 2 players that stand out to me. Stankovic at 4m & Diakhaby at 4.9m

Newcastle have Kennedy at 5m. Although he needs to keep his place.

Brighton will also be very solid defensively. Duffy and Ryan are good options. Gross should also score a shed load of points again.

Also Fulham - Mawson when fit may be useful, Mitrovic having a lot of shots

Brighton looks organized in the AMEX, Groß still the standout option imo.

Kenedy WAS on set pieces 😆 all the ones i saw were horror shows

Manchester United - Pogba on penalties and could be an option if the drama cools down, Shaw also an option if they tighten up and he keeps his spot

Gross. His great delivery and set pieces almost guarantee points. Week 8 onwards.

Looking to bring in Gross (6.9) when BHA fixtures change around GW8

Etheridge could offer a lot of save points, and maybe Bamba is pickable, but you could easily fin d5 better options than him.

Fancy Huddersfield to beat Cardiff this weekend, Mountie could notch one or two. Wouldn’t be sold on any of their players mind you, maybe Sanka, but again, easy to get 5 betterbdefs than him.

Kennedy looks good value, might price drop now also after missed pen & red flag. Lascelles is a quality pick when fixtures improve. Dubravka 0.5 too expensive imo.

Brighton - Groß is sheer quality - a great FPL pick, fire & forget. Jaganzebash (sic) could be a star this year if he gets going. Ridiculous scoring record in Eredivisie for a winger. One to watch.

Well if West Ham qualify as currently unpickable, I don't think their fixtures are quite the nightmare we thought, attacking-wise. I'd fancy Arnautovic to score in any of the next seven, with Chelsea causing the most problems.

Hamer if he keeps his place at 4.0. Kennedy in 7 weeks time. Gross always interesting

"OOP" - nobody has ever got away with calling 5 ATB "OOP" so why now?

Was eying Hadergjonaj at the start of the season, but with so much value with premium defenders and two starting 4.0s just didn't see the need to have him in

Cardiff - Any Defence

Huddersfield - Hamer

Newcastle - No

Brighton - Defence, Murray, Gross

All of these sides have a significant fixture shift around weeks 8-10, so I'm keeping an eye on their assets for if I decide to wildcard around then.

Not seen anything from Cardiff really other than their goalkeeper.

Huddersfield - pritchard as a 5th mid could be a useful bench player/rotating starter. Whichever keeper they're playing by then would be good value also. I think Schindlers a nailed on 4.5 who would work in a defensive rotation too.

Kenedy was absolutely dreadful on Saturday, but hopefully that game was an outlier for him. Like pritchard, he would be a 5th midfielder candidate. The usual right back Yedlin at 4.5 would be useful in a defensive rotation. Their other defenders and goalkeeper i think are overpriced. And the strikers aren't consistent enough.

Brighton are good at home, but can't replicate it away it seems. But that may not matter as they rotate almost perfectly with Newcastle assets home and away from weeks 8 to 18. So a defender with goal threat such as duffy or dunk to rotate with Yedlin works well I think. Gross is of course their talisman, and at 7.0 could offer good value. Murray I think will start to be phased out or rotated with their other new strikers. And their new players still require intigration so require further monitoring.

The Newcatle and Brighton rotation btw yields this from weeks 8-18:

WHU, BRI, WOL, WAT, BOU/car, LEI, WHU/hud, CRY, WOLhud, FUL

Glad I have Duffy (though was on bench for his goal) - was picked in GW1 as a secure starter.

Not expecting much from Billing (0.2%) but at least he is easy to pick out in games...

Richie will be in the points again at some stage I feel...

Mitrovic looks a good option so far.
I fancy Newcastle options the most when the fixtures get better. Lascelles, dubrovka and Kenedey are on my watch list for a few weeks time.
Groß is always going to be a decent option

Etheridge could be a possibility in a 4.5/4.5 goalkeeper rotation if he can continue saving penalties. Sorensen was fantasy gold a few years ago - every time Stoke conceded a penalty, I thought "Good, another penalty save!". He saved about five that season. In last season's home matches in the Championship, Cardiff kept 11 clean sheets and only conceded 16 goals. So they probably won't concede much more than about a goal a game at home in the Premier League.

Gross from week 8 onwards, would like to bring Ryan in then too if I can spare a free transfer or am using the wildcard.

A Newcastle defender from week 9 could be pretty shrewd too.