Should FPL managers own Aguero or Sterling?

Already have Manè and happy to keep him. I dont have the luxury to spend 13m.

I think this weekend will decide it for me. Could do so much with that £3.2m

Have both for this weekend

I'm with you regarding the dilemma. Salah has always been my route to Liverpool's attack rather than Mane, however considering the PPM so far this season, the 3.2m can be properly utilized (planned to get Sterling with it) elsewhere.

I got Salah at 13m and he dropped to 12.8m at one point, but now that he's back at 13m I'll definitely swap him for Mane after this GW irregardless of the result.

After a few eye-tests, Salah seemed to be lacking that finishing touch and the constant losing out on bps doesn't help it either.
No doubt Salah will end the season with more points compared to Mane, but 3.2m worth more? Perhaps not.

i know he has matched him so far, beating him on ppg even when you factor in mane missed huddersfield, but i really don't buy into the idea that mane can match salah long term. what i do buy into is that he can match him in terms of value, even beat him there

The key is captaincy..

The week's where I won't captain Salah I'll be happy to have Mane as cover.

Which is why he will be leaving for Sterling after this week

Owned Salah since the start but looking at those figures, will probably shift to Mane on WC.

Salah has played 1 game more and only has 2 further points to his name. For the price he isn't looking worthwhile. Take the lack of BPS into consideration too and Liverpool just don't look as important offensively as they did last season.

The fear factor is the reason I've held Salah for so long but I'll be looking at the switch in 4 GW time. Mane is proving he can cover him.

Yeah tricky one. Based on expected goals and assists per 90, and translating this to FPL points, Salah is ticking along at 6 points per 90 (including 2 appearance points per 90). Mane is only coming out at 3 points per 90 (including 2 appearance points per 90). Adjusted for price this is 0.46 points per 90 per million for Salah and only 0.30 points per 90 per million for Mane. So yeah Salah is running cold at the moment and Mane very hot. If their respective performances revert to the mean then we will see Salah more than justifying his increased cost over Mane.

expectation has no correlation with reality. I expect to get seduced and bedded by 3 beautiful Swedish ladies this weekend. In reality I'll wake up next to the Mrs snoring and farting.

Look at the reality, Salah costs a fortune and others around him are delivering similar or better for a lot less. We're 11 game weeks in ffs.

I think it's important to recognise that the past isn't always a great predictor of the future. Yes, Mane has matched Salah so far, but will he continue to do so? Personally I don't think he will. Is Salah worth 3m more than Mane? No he isn't but that's where captaincy comes into play. If you're not going to captain Salah often then by all means you should downgrade to Mane (or Sterling) but he might be my captain in the next 5 GWs with the exception of GW14 when Hazard has Fulham and City play Bournemouth. Despite his haul against Cardiff I don't see Mane as a reliable captain, Salah definitely is.

Mane has been over achieving, Salah under achieving .... going to be a few tears when this realigns 🙂

or neither?

i am running both at the moment after ditching aguero for mane this week, will monitor both for next couple of weeks and then either go salah and richy -> sterling + pogba or downgrade mane to moura/martial and use funds to improve 4th defender.
against fulham i am feeling really good having both + lovren with captain salah. expecting 40 point just from these 3 players.

In my opinion, managers that have gone for Mane over Salah have been extraordinarily lucky that Mane has matched Salah for points thus far. Salah's xG is almost double that of Mane, while his xA is almost three times that of Mane. Mane is outscoring his xG by 60% which is unsustainable (Messi only outscores his xG by 25%). Salah is underscoring his xG by 28%.

Salah also has penalties over Mane now. Salah shoots way more and has more key passes, he also plays in a more advanced position than Mane.

On the eye-test from what I've watched, Salah has always looked very threatening while Mane has looked largely invisible and has a couple times popped up towards the end of a game with a tap-in while doing nothing beforehand (this happened against Palace and Cardiff). Salah has looked a little off in terms of his finishing, but I'd back him to turn that around, especially with an easy run over the next 5.

Tears will be shed around here by the next 5 weeks, there will be a period of 2 weeks where Salah scores 30 points and Mane gets 5-10. Then he'll be worth the extra 3m.

I have held both Salah and Mane since GWK 1. I intend to keep both up until GWK 16 when Liverpool's fixtures become more difficult and remove Salah during my GWK 16 wildcard.
Salah currently not justifying the extra 3m outlay compared to Mane. I think the reason is that teams are now so aware of his threat that they are doubling up on him when he has the ball and they are also doing the research (knowing he turns in on his left in certain situations etc) so I have noticed his shots are being blocked a lot more this season.

Some thoughts:

- Judging on what has already happened is too simple. Mane has matched Salah this far, but will that continue? I doubt it, but at the same time I question Salah being worth 3m+ over Mane.

- Think 1 is enough after the Fulham game. They're not clicking as much as City, but I still want one of them as the fixtures are pretty nice. Going with 1 is less risky and more flexible compared to owning none or both. Besides, can only captain one of them so if you own both then Mane is a 10m player you wont captain. Although thats fine, I rather prefer to spread the cash.

- What people need to ask themselves is whether you can stick by your decision or not. If you only got Mane, what do you do when Salah hauls and Mane blanks? Are you going to knee-jerk Salah in? In the opposite case, what do you do when Mane outscores Salah, are you gonna make the switch after already losing out on the deal? Knee-jerking these guys in and out could potentially cost a lot of points.

I’m considering Haz -> Salah as a 2 week punt and double up with Mane (and Robbo) then reverse (with Salah or Mane) it in time for Chelsea vs Fulham in gw14.

Anybody worried about last night’s performance or Shaq replacing them though?

I currently have Sterling and 2 mil itb. I also have Mane, but am looking to bring in Salah for a Liverpool double up as Fulham look horrendous. Do people think this move may be too short term, and would banking the transfer be far more valuable for the week after?

for me, it goes down to capitaincy in next six weeks:

GW13 - Sterling/Aguero vs WHM; Salah has wat
GW14 - Hazard vs FUL; Salah has EVE
GW15 - Salah vs bur; in this GW there is no other standout capitaincy option except Kane vs sot, but not many people has him/ will have him, maybe Arnie vs CAR is an option
GW16 - Laca vs HUD; Salah has bou
GW17 - Sterling/Aguero vs EVE; Salah has MUN
GW18 - Laca vs BUR; Salah has wol

For me only GW15 looks like a standout capitaincy fixture for Salah and I believe I can live with not owning him. He is too expensive to be capitained only one in next 6 GWs.

From my observations this season, Liverpool haven't been as strong offensively. Their midfield hasn't been performing nearly as well as last season. However, I believe they look better as an attacking unit when Shaqiri and Keita play. If that happens more often, we might see the Liverpool of last season and that might get the best out of Salah.

You have a very legitimate question but I don’t agree with your analysis. I am confident that Salah will finish the season with more points than Mane but that doesn’t mean it’s better to own him vs Mane plus another upgraded player.

The problem with PPM is that it’s backward looking. How somebody has performed is no indication to future performance. What you would usually do in the real world is compare to the same period last year and Salah is actually scoring higher than then. His performances started really accelerating by about Christmas as I recall (I haven’t checked but now he has a higher score now than then). That could well happen again. There are a number of players who “start slow”, Kane being one historically with his August drought in previous seasons. I see simple averages quoted here all the time as a comparison which is silly because if a player scores heavily in the first 3-4 games and then reverts to type, this is included in the calculation when it’s not a guide. Think a Capoue from last season who started well. You need a moving average (ideally exponential one for reasons I won’t give here) but most people look 5-7 games ahead so it makes sense to use a moving average of 6 games. In the last 6 games Salah is scoring 6.3 vs 4 for Mane so is on better form. I’d look at standard deviation of score too - you’d rather have somebody with a low volatility of returns. Basically, Mane is not matching Salah in recent games, the most relevant, but he was outperforming him early in the season. And Salah could really accelerate from here.

All that said, I think if you can, have both for this weekend. But when their fixtures stiffen, I think it might make sense to get rid of Salah to allow you to get Kane and other Spurs players from GW15. I probably wouldn’t have Mane either for that matter.

One has nothing to do with the other. Salah is 13m so can be swapped out for any other big hitter. Why link him to mane in any way? Mane need to be compared to the likes of Silva, Mahrez, sane, eriksen, alli and others in his price range.