Wisdom of the Crowd: Gameweek 13

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 12 REVIEW

More green arrows in Round 12 have put the Crowd Wisdom user into the top 15% on Superbru.  It was a tough round for everyone in terms of predictions, but 4 out of 10 beat the community average, which included one Exact pick and three Close predictions.

GAMEWEEK 13 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW13:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Everton’s Richarlison is currently leading the captain’s poll, but the crowd is predicting that Man City, Liverpool, and Man United will score more goals than Everton.

Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling are worth considering for the armband on this evidence, as well as Mo Salah and perhaps Romelu Lukaku.

In defence, Everton are predicted to keep a clean sheet at home to Cardiff, which may tempt those yet to replace Benjamin Mendy. In the budget bracket, Wolves and Fulham are also expected to keep it tight at the back.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data.