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Wisdom of the Crowd: Gameweek 15

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 14 REVIEW

It wasn’t a good round for our Crowd Wisdom user, with only 4 correct predictions out of 10, lower than the community average of 5.07, which meant the first red arrow for 5 weeks.  Let’s see if the fortunes change again this weekend.

GAMEWEEK 15 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW15:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Man City are at the top of the predicted goals chart yet again, but with some doubt over their starting lineup fantasy managers will be cautious in throwing any of their players the captain’s armband. It’s a gamble that could pay off however, with City predicted to score 3 goals at Watford.

Harry Kane looks set to prosper at home to Southampton and seems a safer option, whilst Liverpool and Chelsea could be worth considering too.

Spurs and Liverpool seem to be the best bets for clean sheets, whilst West Ham, Everton, Bournemouth and Brighton are the budget teams to consider this week.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data, and you could win some cash.

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4 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Reedy
    • 8 Years
    5 days, 7 hours ago

    Great timing! Cheers Hutch (and Geoff)!

  2. MTPockets
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 days, 7 hours ago

    Thanks

  3. Ghost Gooner
    • 5 Years
    5 days, 7 hours ago

    Got the same results except for Bri to win one nil and Liv, Che and Man City to score one more goal each

  4. rabo91
    • 1 Year
    3 days, 10 hours ago

    Arsenal fans out there..

    Your opinion on who starts against Huddersfield? Auba? Laca? Both?