Metrics
8 December 2018 1907 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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With the Christmas period looming large for Fantasy managers, there have been increases in Wildcard uses from week to week.

Gameweek 16 saw the continuation of the heavy Wildcard usage among the top 10 thousand FPL managers, especially.

4.54% of them activated the chip compared to 3.64% in Gameweek 15. This leaves around 12% first Wildcards left for managers to use in December.

There are clues to the new template when we look at how Gameweek 16 Wildcards compare with those from Gameweek 15. As you can see, the options selected are mostly similar across the two line-ups.

The two squads share 13 from a possible 15 players, which means Gameweek 15 Wildcarders benefited from many price changes which Gameweek 16 Wildcarders probably missed.

One of the two selection differences is Callum Wilson replacing the injured Marko Arnautovic in the front line, although ironically he also picked up an injury himself.

The second is the inclusion of Sead Kolasinac instead of Lucas Digne, with Arsenal’s fixtures looking better long-term compared to Everton’s.

The rest of the most selected Wildcard picks are the same except for slight changes in the ownership percentages of certain players.

For example, Wildcarders became more convinced of including Harry Kane (74.45% to 85.9%) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (61.26% to 70.70%) in their new squads this week. Meanwhile the likes of Marcos Alonso (54.12% to 30.4%) and Leroy Sane (60.71% to 53.96%) suffered marginal drops in their Wildcard representation.

One major thing many Wildcarders missed was the inclusion of hat-trick hero Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian is now the highest-scoring player so far in Gameweek 16 with 21 points, and he’s only included in just 32.2% of Wildcards this week.

He is also not that highly owned in general among the top 10k teams, with only 39.5% ownership, raised to 52.1% effective ownership by factoring the captaincy in.

This meant his owners earned big rank jumps, especially with the latest captain poll winner Aubameyang (40.31%) scoring only five points.

Meanwhile, the popular Wilson and Trent Alexander-Arnold missed out on Saturday lunch-time which again raises the importance of having a good bench in December.

Running simulations of the exact autosubs that will take place for just the two of them in the top 10k indicates the following results. It is Aaron Wan-Bissaka who will gain the most increase of effective ownership, followed by Alonso and Ryan Fraser, as indicated in the following table.

PlayerIncrease in Effective Ownership after TAA and Wilson autosubs
Wan-Bissaka23.40%
Alonso11.88%
Fraser9.09%
Bennet7.46%
Doherty3.23%

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  1. Carcaju
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Patricio - 4M
    Luiz - Laporte - Doherty - Bennet - Wa Bissaka
    Salah - Hazard - Felipe Anderson - Richarlison - 4.3
    Chicharito - Auba - Wilson

    2 FT, 1.5M itb

    Laporte, Richarlison, Wilson -> Kane + 8.6M to split between a defender and a midfielder (-4)

    Yes or no? Any other way to get Kane for the next couple of weeks?

    1. Dead Lift
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Just get Son in, sell Richa.

      1. Magic Zico
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        This

      2. Carcaju
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Isn't it likely that he will get rested? Has been playing all games lately

        1. Dead Lift
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Everyone gets a rest as you have seen today. Not a big concern.

          1. Carcaju
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 2 months ago

            You have a point there... Anyway, this is a Champions week, so I'll wait untill Thursday or Friday to make any change, price changes won't probably affect my decision

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Just get Son as Spurs cover imo.

    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Better off waiting but getting 2 fodders isn't great.

      1. Carcaju
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah I know... I only intend to have Kane and Auba for the next weeks, in a month I'll probably downgrade one of them to improve the rest of the team

    4. DMP
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldnt sell Richa. Season keeper.

    5. DMP
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Triple Wolwes in defense doesnt seem wise.

      Get Lloris instead.

  2. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Last Man Standing Update (1623 teams)

    Current safety score = 23
    Top score = 104 on WC
    LMS average = 42.48

    2 games + autosubs to go.

    1. Dead Lift
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      104?! So jealous.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          No City and left Alonso on the bench.

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers, TM

    3. Huckfead
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      What was last weeks survival score?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        https://torresmagic.webs.com/lmsupdate.htm

        40 or my profile has them.

      2. It's a Wookie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        40 I believe, as I got through by the skin of my teeth!

    4. Andriy Shevchenko is Back
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Hey TM. What are the entry requirements for LMS? I remember trying to join this and another member league when they were open a couple of months back but didn't make it in. Guidance appreciated, thank you.

  3. french holiday
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Hazard looks nore essential than Salah with the fixtures. Is he a viable captain pick?

    1. Alan The Llama
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      They won't play Man City every week

      1. Alan The Llama
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        In answer to your question, yes, he's a viable captain pick.

    2. Clintymints
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Kane/Salah caps for me. Haz good option for sure - especially next week, but I never like captaining haz.

      So few baps and no actual goal in many games

    3. Valar(Keith)
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Sterling, Kane and Auba have my captaincy till mid Jan. Tempted by him though

    4. Bob B
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      I want Hazard back more than I want Salah

    5. DMP
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      I am thinking on Hazard/Salah/Kane. Saber bet for rotation and captancy.

      In the end, they will all score the same.

  4. theoldgit
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Was going to do Arnie to Mitrovic this week.

    Any idea why Mitrovic was subbed yesterday?

    1. Clintymints
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Tactics. 3.-0 down 4 yc, why even bother with the nutcase

  5. Gandalf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Son likely to keep his place once Lamela back?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. Clintymints
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Yea ofc

  6. #FPLBhuna
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts? Torn on who to start between fraser and succes for next gw

    henny
    robbo - bellerin - doherty
    sane - sterling - anderson - son - fraser
    kane(c) - jiminez

    hamer - success - awb - pereira

  7. Valar(Keith)
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Part of the reason Salah hauled today was the absence of Mane

    1. Valar(Keith)
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Reply fail to dead lift

      1. Dead Lift
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Agree!

    2. Bob B
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Good job Mané is back next week then

  8. Lisboa 1967
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Where can I see the FFS cup standings ?

  9. Gerd Mueller’s thighs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    MLS. Up kicking off......go United!

  10. french holiday
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Lets pray for a Jiminez gattrick

  11. Konig Luther
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Felipe Anderson or Snodgrass?

    1. french holiday
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Anderson

    2. Sterling Silva is better th…
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Depends what number mid he is. I love Snod as a 5th Mid in a 3-5-2, but would prefer Anderson as a 3/4 mid in a 3-4-3

      1. Konig Luther
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        true... Snodgrass would be my 4th mid for now, but he would be the 5th in future (to rotate with Jimenez)

        Anderson would be the 4th always.

        1. Sterling Silva is better th…
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Im giving that Snod/Jiminez rotation a very hard look myself

          1. MTPockets
              7 years, 2 months ago

              Same - problem is every game for a while is good for Snodgrass so bound to bench for the wrong ones.

      2. Ynwalfc
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Both with Fulham next

    3. CAPTAIN CRESPO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Anyone else have a shocker on WC?

      Took out Salah, Robbo, Hazard, Luiz 🙁

      1. Andriy Shevchenko is Back
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Yes indeed. Took out Salah and Robbo. Luckily Son and Anderson in softened the blow but it still hurts.

    4. french holiday
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Atleast its clear that Aubameyang is more essential than Lacazette

    5. Lionel Ronaldo
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Price changes in: _ hours and _ minutes ?

        1. rainy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Now 🙂

          1. Lionel Ronaldo
              7 years, 2 months ago

              What? NOW?

          2. Mysterion
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 2 months ago

            23, 54

        2. arndff_
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Have a question for you, TM. Thank you in advance, mate!

          Would you WC this:

          Fabianski
          Robertson Kolasinac Doherty AWB
          Salah Sane Fraser
          Kane Auba Jimenez

          Button | Richa Yedlin Diangana

          [1FT, 0.1M ITB]

          to that:

          Fabianski
          Kolasinac Doherty Schindler
          Hazard Sane Son Anderson Fraser
          Kane Auba

          Button TAA Kamara AWB

          [0.5M ITB]

          * It comes down to this:

          Robertson, Yedlin, Salah, Richa, Diangana, Jimenez > TAA, Schindler, Hazard, Son, Anderson, Kamara

          1. Clintymints
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 2 months ago

            Nah

        3. rainy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Price Changes - 9th December 2018

          🔺  Bellerín (5.5), Shaqiri (7.1)

          🔻  Murray (6.6), Alonso (7.0), Gomez (5.0), Bravo (4.8), Agüero (11.2), Capoue (4.9), Pereyra (6.2)

          1. arndff_
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 2 months ago

            0-0

            Cheers, mate! 🙂

            1. arndff_
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 2 months ago

              PS: So happy that Anderson didn't rise!

          2. Marvin.
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 2 months ago

            Why are people selling Alonso?

            1. arndff_
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 2 months ago

              He had some poor games recently.

              Downgrading him a few days ago allowed me to do: Arnie > Auba.

            2. MTPockets
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Must be because he's the highest scoring def and 4th highest overall for 7.1m, who just got a cs vs MCI with good upcoming fixtures.

                1. Andriy Shevchenko is Back
                  • 9 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Snap! But +1. I am keeping

              • Amsterhammer
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Stupidity

                1. the axolotl
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Since GW4, Luiz has outscored Alonso and he's 1.4million cheaper. Hardly that stupid to consider getting rid.

              • Biancazzurri
                • 13 Years
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Necessity and lack of options. I wanted Auba, so got him doing Hazard and Alonso > Son and Bellerin. -4 and it worked (for now!)

              • jtreble
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Why would you want the highest scoring defender in FPL? That’s crazy talk.

            3. Tsparkes10
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 2 months ago

              0-1 🙁

            4. Saka Punch
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 2 months ago

              Any reason Ings is predicted to drop every night but doesn't?

              1. Mysterion
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Ings is but an amateur at this game... Dale Stephens is the one true king!

              2. Clintymints
                • 16 Years
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Drops never as accurate as rises

                After a few years you get used to the sites and kinda know how to feel out the prices

            5. Lionel Ronaldo
                7 years, 2 months ago

                Anderson was at 101.6 to rise
                Aubameyang was at 100.8 to rise

                Ings was at 100.2 to fall
                Izquierdo was at 100.2 to fall
                Cairney was at 100.1 to fall

                Wat

                1. Alan The Llama
                  • 16 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  It's not 100.7% accurate

                2. DV8R
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 14 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Many wildcards?

                3. Gangster Panda
                  • 9 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Many thinking anything over/under 100 is a dead cert.

                  1. Lionel Ronaldo
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      So are you telling me nothing is guaranteed, whether something is below 100, on 100, or above 100 ?

                      1. Clintymints
                        • 16 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        Yup

                        1. Lionel Ronaldo
                            7 years, 2 months ago

                            Then what is the point of predicting at all, if nothing is guaranteed? That's a bit stupid, the way you are phrasing it.

                            1. Clintymints
                              • 16 Years
                              7 years, 2 months ago

                              You don't have to use it at all

                              It's there as an indication of price changes developed by a 3rd party that gives the info away for free

                            2. Hotdogs for Tea
                              • 10 Years
                              7 years, 2 months ago

                              It’s just some techie geeks trying to work out price rises - it’s not an FPL official site m. You could try to do what they are doing or ignore it and try to work it out your self 😉

                            3. Deulofail
                              • 10 Years
                              7 years, 2 months ago

                              What's the point of predicting if nothing is guaranteed? Perhaps because nothing is guaranteed! 😆

                              The probability is based on their model. If their model is correct, 100.0 is the number at which a player is guaranteed to rise. However, their model is not correct because only FPL have access to the correct model. Hence the need to predict.

                              You can read the information about the tool you are using, including the margins of error. I'd send a link, but you already have it. 😉

                    • Clintymints
                      • 16 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      It's never 100% accurate, especially drops

                  2. FP El Wonky
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 15 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    0 - 1 Alonso better kick some seller butt.

                  3. fclackless [Brazil Nuts]
                    • 7 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    cheers

                4. Mysterion
                  • 8 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Auba 😮

                5. JasonG123
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Early thought with this lot? 0.2m ITB, 1FT.

                  Patricio (Hamer)
                  Robertson TAA Doherty (Balbuena Wan-Bissaka)
                  Salah Sterling Sane Snodgrass (Obiang)
                  Kane Wilson Jimenez

                  1. arndff_
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Monitor Wilson.

                6. Fpl Richie
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Currently abroad in the US. Are the price changes finished?

                  Want to get Felipe and money is tight

                  1. arndff_
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Rainy has just posted price changes. Felipe Anderson didn't go up.

                  2. #FPLBhuna
                    • 9 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Yep he didnt rise

                  3. Fpl Richie
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Sweet. Will get him for Richarlison and then no doubt have to get him back soon!

                  4. Deli Alli OxenFree!
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Where are u visiting in America mate?
                    Prices Change at THESE Times:
                    •WEST COAST [5:15pm]
                    •MOUNTAIN [6:15pm]
                    •CENTRAL [7:15pm]
                    •EASTERN [8:15pm]

                7. SuperDan
                  • 10 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Which move to make?
                  A) Sane > Hazard
                  B Lacazette > Aguero

                  1. DV8R
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    B for free

                  2. Salah’s Sonnet
                    • 14 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Laca TO Aguero?

                    1. SuperDan
                      • 10 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      Yeah. He should be back this week and the fixtures arent bad

                      1. Salah’s Sonnet
                        • 14 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        Ahh ok, i'd give him a game or two though coming back from injury, rather Sterling anyway

                8. french holiday
                  • 8 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Cheers on the Alonso price drop. Will be getting back to back hauls in the upcoming games.

                9. Bob B
                  • 12 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Is it the top 4.2m that qualify for the FPL cup?

                10. EgyptianKing
                  • 7 Years
                  7 years, 2 months ago

                  Hi mates.

                  Do you think Ruben Neves starts tomorrow?

                  1. Bob B
                    • 12 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Yes, until he next gets himself suspended

                  2. MTPockets
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      Guess yes, but hoping they also squeeze in Gibbs-White again.

                      1. Bob B
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        MGW will get plenty of minutes this season, probably 1 point most games but has every chance of getting himself a goal or assist like he did last week. Especially later in the games when we seem to be more potent.

                      2. Bob B
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        Think he's competing more with the wingers to steal a spot from them, to play 3412 instead of 3421, than Neves and Moutinho, but obviously he can play that position too

                  3. french holiday
                    • 8 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Haz as striker is a very good option- Saari

                  4. Dead Lift
                    • 9 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    So I it's time for WC!

                    Fab, Button
                    Robbo, Kolasinac, AWB, Doherty, Trippier
                    Hazard, Sane, Son, Mane , Felipe
                    Auba, Chicha, Success

                    How does it look?
                    Of course I am waiting for the rest matches and midweek info.
                    Any suggestions?
                    Maybe Chicha becomes Jimenez.

                  5. FFSbet.com
                    • 10 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Best defender up to 4.4 ?

                    A) Balbuena
                    B) Schindler

                    some other suggestion
                    Alonso - Trippier - TAA - AWB - xxx

                    1. Dead Lift
                      • 9 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      Schindler. Plays for a solid defense.

                    2. Deli Alli OxenFree!
                      • 8 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      I took a gamble last week and brought in Cédric
                      ...def didn’t pay off! Benched today, ARS Next, & has 4 Yellows!
                      Lol....fml

                    3. Bob B
                      • 12 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      Vinagre, straight swap to Jonny when he returns

                  6. mgilbert86
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 13 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Anything stand out transfer wise?

                    Ederson-Hamer
                    Robbo-Van dijk-digne-awb-schindler
                    Sterling-fanderson-richarlison-fraser-mendy
                    Kane-auba-wilson?

                    1. Tsparkes10
                      • 7 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      Nope. like a lot. Keep an eye on Wilson's situation though

                  7. Tsparkes10
                    • 7 Years
                    7 years, 2 months ago

                    Really can't decide whether to wc or not this gw... grrr. 1.9 itb 1 Ft
                    Will obvs wc in next 3 weeks so transfers quite short term

                    Fab, Speroni
                    Alonso, Doh, AWB, Dunk, VVD
                    Salah, Rich, FA, Fraser, Diangana
                    Kane, Jimenez, Laca

                    Thinking:
                    A) Diangana > Pedro
                    B) Rich > Dilva/Mahrez
                    C) Dunk to any defender

                    1. MTPockets
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        Think I'd sell Lacazette (subject to opinion on his game time) or get in MCI. Silva might be injured though

                        1. Tsparkes10
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 2 months ago

                          Ty

                      • Dead Lift
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        WC and bring in some City players. Don't delay it more.

                        1. Tsparkes10
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 2 months ago

                          Sane?

                      • Deli Alli OxenFree!
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        I’ve got 3 City Players atm (Sterling/Sané/Ederson); and i’m Trying to decide whether to WC or not as well!
                        (I Also have Laca & Cédric instead of Dunk)

                        1. Tsparkes10
                          • 7 Years
                          7 years, 2 months ago

                          Hmmm. Idk its hard

                    2. french holiday
                      • 8 Years
                      7 years, 2 months ago

                      I welcome back OOP Hazard in my team.

                      1. MTPockets
                          7 years, 2 months ago

                          In his interview after the game basically said he doesn't like that position.

                        • Clintymints
                          • 16 Years
                          7 years, 2 months ago

                          I'd rather he was wide and free roaming

                      2. Strchld
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 2 months ago

                        I got 12 points, yes 12 points.
                        Looks that its time to ignore this game for week.
                        Got just 7 player in, Alonso got me 6 point, everyone else 0-2.
                        OR was 13k, dont even want to know what it is now.
                        Martial, Trippier, Trent, Kane C, Billing, Wilson. And took a hit to get Arnie and Mane out. Half of my team are injured.
                        F*** hate this right now.

                        1. Clintymints
                          • 16 Years
                          7 years, 2 months ago

                          Quick gw innit. Needs proper attention and management!

                        2. MTPockets
                            7 years, 2 months ago

                            Win some, lose some. Without Salah I'd be on 13 points from 6 so far.

                          • Positive vibes
                            • 9 Years
                            7 years, 2 months ago

                            There will be better days mate.

                            1. Strchld
                              • 9 Years
                              7 years, 2 months ago

                              I know that cant be worse.

                          • Bob B
                            • 12 Years
                            7 years, 2 months ago

                            Got to have the bad weeks to appreciate the good