Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 23

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 22 REVIEW

It was an average week for the crowd, with 5 correct picks out of 10 matching the community average of 5.02, but with no Exact Scores predicted, our Crowd Wisdom suffered a slight fall in the rankings.

GAMEWEEK 23 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW23:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Leading the way once again in the predicted goals chart, Man City are expected to score at least 3 goals at Huddersfield. Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling or Leroy Sane could be great captaincy picks, but question marks remain over selection.

Liverpool are second, with Mo Salah leading the Captaincy Poll, given the security of starts and his recent run of form.  Man United at home to Brighton is also worth considering, with Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford the pick of the options at Old Trafford.

In defence, it’s Man City top again, with clean sheets also predicted for Man United and Liverpool, whilst Newcastle and Watford provide the budget-friendly options.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Wolves 1 – 1 Leicester
Bournemouth 1 – 1 West Ham
Liverpool 3 – 0 Crystal Palace
Man United 3 – 0 Brighton
Newcastle 1 – 1 Cardiff
Southampton 1 – 1 Everton
Watford 2 – 1 Burnley
Arsenal 1 – 2 Chelsea
Huddersfield 0 – 3 Man City
Fulham 1 – 2 Tottenham