Spot the Differential
1 February 2019 743 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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This weekly series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5%.

We turn our attention to Double Gameweek 25 for our first pick and cast the net a bit further for our other two selections, who are both starting to look more like the players that shone in 2017/18.

Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.3%

We highlighted David Silva‘s (£8.5m) appeal in the pre-Gameweek 24 edition of this series and the Spaniard, who provided the assist for Sergio Aguero‘s (£11.3m) early goal on Tuesday evening, is another obvious differential candidate ahead of the imminent Double Gameweek.

In the interests of variety, though, we will instead take to championing the case of another Manchester City midfield star: Kevin De Bruyne (£9.7m).

Plenty of discussion in the Fantasy community this week has centred around the credentials of Leroy Sane (£9.7m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.3m) for this double-header against Arsenal and Everton, with a particular focus on how many minutes each winger will be handed given that City also face Chelsea a week on Sunday.

The same uncertainty is true of the reigning champions’ central midfield, with De Bruyne, David Silva, Bernardo Silva (£7.6m), Fernandinho (£5.3m) and, to perhaps a lesser extent, Ilkay Gundogan (£5.4m) likely to see game-time in Double Gameweek 25.

De Bruyne said himself recently that he doesn’t expect to play every game but the Belgian playmaker is a known favourite of Guardiola’s and made more Premier League appearances in 2017/18 (37 – all but one of them starts) than any of his team-mates.

De Bruyne has started all of City’s four most-recent matches in all competitions and, while he may make way for Bernardo in one of his side’s two fixtures in Double Gameweek 25, the Belgian is still capable of doing damage off the bench: De Bruyne delivered attacking returns as a substitute in Gameweeks 18 and 22.

Over the last two Gameweeks (De Bruyne having returned to the City starting XI in Gameweek 23) only two FPL midfielders have created more chances than the Belgian.

One attempt on goal over those two fixtures isn’t particularly encouraging but then that is the same number of shots that Sterling has registered in the period studied.

De Bruyne delivered attacking returns against both Arsenal and Everton in 2017/18 and those two clubs haven’t convinced from a defensive perspective this season: only Fulham have recorded fewer clean sheets than the Gunners (four) in 2018/19, while Marco Silva’s have registered just two shut-outs in their last 11 Premier League games.

Ben Mee (£4.6m)

FPL ownership: 1.7%

Overpriced and out of form at the start of the season, Burnley’s defenders were something of a no-go zone for the first half of 2018/19.

Over the last month or so, however, the Clarets have been quietly going about their business in more impressive fashion and are currently on a five-match unbeaten run.

Sean Dyche’s side were 2-0 up at Old Trafford on Tuesday with three minutes of normal time to go and but for a soft penalty they conceded to allow Manchester United a lifeline, they might well have taken all three points.

Tom Heaton‘s (£4.8m) return to the side seems to have instilled a greater confidence in the defenders in front of him, with the Clarets banking two clean sheets and sitting in the top half of the table for fewest big chances conceded over the last five Gameweeks.

No Premier League club has conceded fewer goals than Burnley in that time.

Burnley sit second in our Season Ticker for defence over the next five Gameweeks, with Southampton the visitors to Turf Moor on Saturday.

The Saints have registered fewer shots on goal than any other top-flight side over the last six Gameweeks.

Ben Mee‘s (£4.6m) ownership is at the lowest it has been all season and his price has fallen £0.4m since Gameweek 1, making him an all-the-more enticing option for the weeks ahead.

Burnley also have matches in the Blank Gameweeks of 27, 31 and 33.

While Mee is yet to find the net in 2018/19, only four FPL defenders have registered more shots in the box than the Burnley centre-back over the last six Gameweeks.

Mee has also recorded more penalty box touches than any of his fellow Burnley defenders this season.

Pascal Gross (£6.7m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

While we considered an Everton player for this Gameweek 25 piece, the players who qualify as a “differential” (i.e. an FPL ownership below 5%) such as Bernard (£5.9m), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.3m) and Ademola Lookman (£5.1m) are far from secure in Marco Silva’s starting XI and of course face Manchester City in one of their two fixtures.

We have instead taken to highlight the appeal of a Fantasy favourite of 2017/18, a budget midfielder who is just starting to show signs that he is getting back to somewhere near his best.

Pascal Gross (£6.7m) has one goal and two assists in the last four Gameweeks and over that time only two FPL midfielders have created more chances than the German.

Gross indeed sits joint-sixth among players in his position for key passes since returning from injury in Gameweek 13.

Despite playing in a slightly more withdrawn role as part of a central midfield three, Gross has still managed more shots in the box than winger Solly March (£5.0m) and all other Brighton players listed as a midfielder over the last 12 Gameweeks.

Gross is heavily involved in taking Brighton’s corners and free-kicks and this weekend the Seagulls face a Watford side who have conceded more attempts from set plays and headed chances than any other Premier League side over the last four Gameweeks – a positive omen for Gross’s assist potential from dead-ball situations.

Looking beyond this weekend, Brighton sit top of our Season Ticker for the next eight Gameweeks – though of course blank in Gameweek 27.

743 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Slitherene
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Fabianski*
    Digne* | Luiz | Trippier
    Hazard | Salah | Richarlison | Pogba*
    Jimenez | Firmino | Rashford
    Button* | Camarasa* | Pereira VsX | TAA*

    2FT, 0.3 ITB

    A) Button + Digne -> McCarthy + Tomkins
    Will have a playing keeper
    Worst case scenario Def : Tomkins/Periera, Trippier, Luiz

    Or

    B) Trippier + Firmino -> Tomkins + Aguero
    No keeper likely
    Worst case scenario Def : Pereira, Tomkins/Digne, Luiz

    1. The 5% Team
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Bocaginge
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Boruc is playing and he’s 3.9, use him instead of McCarthy and upgrade Tomkins?

  2. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    FPL transfer activity usually increases on Friday afternoon when all the UK players start making their transfers and start taking it easy at work.

    1. SoShy
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Dilly dilly

  3. Captain_Shirokov
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Having done Hazard to Sane, what should my other FT be?

    A) Auba to Aguero
    or
    B) Digne to Danilo/Laporte

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A.

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      A

  4. AzzaroMax99
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    What is your opinion on the Pogba thing? He hasn't train since game vs Bur and now missed training apparently.

    1. AzzaroMax99
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      *trained

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      My opinion (not news as I don't know more than what has been reported) is that he will miss the game this weekend.

    3. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Game on Sunday.Think he will play

    4. Pierce34
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      My opinion is that even if he misses this weekend it doesn't sound like something that will keep him out for long. Bench can cover this weekend, Palace have Fulham so AWB has got this.

    5. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I think pogba a will play.

  5. SoShy
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Mahrez.

    1. *sigh*
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Good point well made

    2. datamunkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Mahrez or Lesrez, makes little difference to me mate..

  6. Daghe Munegu
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Any suggestion ?

    1ft 0.5 itb

    Pat
    VVD Shaw Kola
    Salah Hazard Sané Sterling
    Jimenez Rash Barnes

    x Diop Gunnarson x

  7. Amey
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Arsenal having problem @ RB position.
    Sane play on LW.
    It's a sign 😀

    1. *sigh*
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Might be Mendy

      1. Shineonme
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        It won't it will definitely be sane

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I think sane plays more min than sterling or Kun.

      1. Amey
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Thank you Sir 🙂

  8. Burger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Is Kun(c) a differential this weekend?

    1. Pep Pig
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I don't think he's a differential as he's top of the captain's poll. Though could be in your ML

      1. Burger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Ah thanks didn't see that. He's completely absent in all my ML.

        1. Pep Pig
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Then from your personal perspective he is a differential and you should go for it mate.

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      He's top pick in the FFS poll.

    3. datamunkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Asking that question = a 20min 1st game then tight hammy crying into your FPL pillow of why, why, why kinda thing mate

  9. *sigh*
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Ederson
    Robertson Shaw Mendy Wan-Bissaka
    Sterling [tc] Hazard Salah Brooks
    Aubameyang Rashford

    Boruc Camarasa Jonny Kamara

    Gtg?

    1. Pep Pig
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Love the Sterling TC move. Good luck pal and yes GTG

      1. *sigh*
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers and good luck to you too

  10. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    2FTs. 0.8ITB.
    A) Auba to Kun
    B) Haz to Sane/Sterling
    C) Both
    D) Smth else

    Fabianski
    Laporte, TAA, Doherty, AWB
    Salah, Hazard, Pogba, Rich
    Auba, Rash

    Hamar,, Højbjerg, Digne, Kamara

    1. Pep Pig
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Who would you be most comfortable making captain if you did A or B mate? I personally believe Sterling as he's my TC. Give my reasons in the Hot Top the other day. Good luck mate

      1. Shineonme
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Sane but only because imo sane plays more min

        1. datamunkey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          this... everything seen so far this season point to this (bar big Mendy bear romping up behind me!)

        2. Maddamotha
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Yeah but Hazard has a great fixture tho, even tho form is way off. I dont fancy Auba to get anything in this match tbh.

      2. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Sane probably. But im clueless now tbh. Kinda want to keep Hazard, but City with 2 matches.. Cheers mate, GL to you too!

  11. The 12th Man
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    1. Anderson,Rashford > Richarlison,Aguero -4
    2. Digne,Anderson > Laporte,KDB or Son -4

    1. Lav
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      2

      1. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Or even Digne > 4.5 Anderson > Sterling

    2. datamunkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      don't -4 if you can help it, pick one mate

    3. Pieterke30
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      2. With Son.

  12. simong1
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Fabianski - Button
    Robertson - TAA - Digne - Doherty - AWB
    Salah – Hazard – Richarlison – Pogba – Masuaku
    Jimenez – Wilson – Rashford

    1FT, 3.5 ITB.

    Masuaku & Wilson > Sane & Crouch (-4) a good move? ?

    I know Crouch won't play but neither was Masuaku previously. Would also captain Sane. Is this move worth it for a hit?

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      No city mid might kill you

  13. Surfeit of Lampteys
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Amy Chelsea fans or anyone for that matter think Willian will play v Huddersfield?

    1. Lav
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Honestly can see it. Pedro was poor, and I do not think Sarri has the balls to start CHO.

      1. datamunkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Lack of Sarriball(s) right there

  14. Ninjaa
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Current front 8 of
    Richarlison Hazard Salah F.Anderson Pogba
    Firminho Rashford Kamara ..

    2 ft and 0.2 itb. Ideally I'd like to do Hazard and Kamara to Aguero and Puncheon. Thoughts lads??

    1. Lav
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Bold.

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Can you afford Anderson / hazard to sane / son ?

  15. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Have Fab Button

    Any news from today on Fab telling us ife he playa?

    *Have Pogba ans Digne but at least have bench for them

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      fab should be ok

  16. Zladan
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Ryan
    AWB Bednarek £5.6m
    Hazard Salah Sane Richarlison
    Aguero (c) Rashford Jimmy

    Patricio Camarasa Digne Bennett

    Please fill in the defender for £5.6m.

    1. Lav
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Pereira

  17. Lav
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Ideas? 2 FT 0 ITB

    Patricio / Etheridge
    Robbo / Digne* / TAA* / Doherty / AWB
    Salah / Eden / Sane / Pogba / Rich
    Rash / Jimenez / Kamara*

    1. AuFeld
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Pereira.

      or PVA.

      1. Zladan
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Defensive replacements and cons:
        PVA - Palace double up
        Kola - plays City next
        Pereira - bad fixtures until GW27
        Shaw - possible rotation?

    2. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Play a 3-5-2 with your flagged on the bench.

      Etheridge to Boruc?
      Then either save FT (with just Digne v City on bench) or upgrade Digne.

      1. Lav
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Is Boruc nailed now you think?

        1. Zladan
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Yep. 2 clean sheets. Don’t fix what isn’t broken.

  18. Boss Hogg
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Which defender is best for the next few weeks?

    a. Duffy
    b. Taylor
    c. Bednarek/Valery\Targettt
    d. Someone else?

    Max - 4.7m

    1. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Burnley have nice fixtures as well

      1. Boss Hogg
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        So Taylor then?

    2. *sigh*
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Duffy but Lejeune also worth considering

  19. thomashl
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Bernardo Silva a cheeky differential this week?

    1. Pep Pig
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Yes of course. Though I'm not sure he starts. The centre mid spots all of a sudden are difficult to predict. Sane and Sterling seem to have claimed the wide slots. B Silva is surely challenging D Silva and KDB for the spot?

  20. Dele
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    G2G? 0.9ITB

    Etheridge,
    Doherty, VVD, AWB
    Sane, Son, Pogba, Salah
    Aguero(c), Rashford, Jimenez

    Button, Digne, Bennett, Puncheon

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Nice team. Me personally I'd cap sane. Only because i believe he'll play more min

  21. Boss Hogg
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    KDB or Sane?

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Sane imo

      1. datamunkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        this a is chancing it, b is form mate

  22. pressdpm
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    2FT's.
    Which two players to ship out, and which two City players to get?

    Fabianski
    Kolasinac - Robertson - Wan Bissaka
    Salah - Hazard - Richarlison - Pogba
    Rashford - Jiminez - Firmino

    Speroni - Bennett - Digne - Biling

    1. Pieterke30
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Hazard and Firmino to Sané and Aguero possible?

      1. datamunkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        This is a decent shout but then you are 4 for the blank so need to ship - other sh1te will happen between now and then so there is the risk of then being a bit cornered, pick one, not two = sane imho

        1. datamunkey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          and therefore keep the 2FTs, this DGW is fools gold

          1. datamunkey
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            checks team and see I have Digne, Rich, Sane + Kun and no FTs!!!

  23. Slitherene
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Who scores more this GW?

    A) Fabianski (LIV) + Trippier (NEW) + Firmino (whu)

    OR

    B) McCarthy (bur) + Pereira (MUN) + Aguero (ARS, eve)

  24. Firminooooo
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    All in on ManC, a hurt lion is dangeros.

    Guaita

    Trippier Laporte Robertson

    Salah Richarlison Sane Pogba

    Jimenez Aguero (TC) Rashford

    Benk: Doherty, WanB, Snodgrass, Fabianski

  25. kirwy
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Any thoughts on what to do with this lot would be much appreciated.

    Pat
    Robbo AWB Doherty
    Salah Sané Pogba Richarlison
    Auba Rash Jimenez

    Fab Digne Shaw Hojbjerg

    1 FT ... 1.0 itb

    Save or bring in a DGW player? Who then?

    1. mattyb09
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Digne to Laporte. Bench Doherty for LaPorte

  26. mattyb09
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Using your TC on a City asset due for rotation is playing with fire. Few will start both games.

    1. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I think sane and kun will start both

  27. CliveTilds
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    (A) Laporte > Digne
    (B) Play AWB and save the transfer.

    1. CliveTilds
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Digne > Laporte rather

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      B

  28. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Keep FT and next week Digne Hazard to Robo Son?

    Or any other mid and def in instead?

    Fab
    WB/Doherty/Shaw
    Salah/Hazard/Sane(c)/Pogba
    Auba/Rash/Jim

    Hart/Bednarek/Puncheon/Digne

  29. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Two strategies:
    A or B mates?

    A) 25: Digne to Laporte
    27: Richa Sane to Anderson Son
    (GW27 - bench Laporte and play 3-5-2 withCamarasa)

    *In both strategies Robbo starts vs United and VVD is benched

    B) 25: Success to Llorente
    26: Digne to Pereira
    27: Sane to Anderson
    (GW27 - bench Richa and play 4-3-3 with Pereira and Llorente)

    Fab
    Doherty VVD Robbo Digne
    Salah Pogba Richa Sane
    Rashford Auba

    Subs: Button, AWB, Camarasa, Success

  30. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    What to do with this lot?

    Fabianksi*
    Robertson Doherty AWB
    Salah Hazard Sane Pogba*
    Firmino Rashford Jimenez

    Hamer Hojbjerg* Kolasinac Digne*

    2ft 0.5itb

    Cheers all

    1. mattyb09
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Fabianski to Guaita. Digne to LaPorte

      1. THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Looks good tbf

        1. Pieterke30
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          And bench who then?

          Doherty or AWB?

          1. THFC4LIFE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            Prob AWB but I duno tbh. Might just do Hazard > Sterling like I had planned