The fourth Friday night deadline of the season is rapidly approaching and there are the usual quandaries for Fantasy managers to consider ahead of Gameweek 10, as well as some fresh ones.
Manchester City rotation is an issue that never goes away, while a ‘light at the back’ strategy is still paying dividends – for now.
Wolves assets, Liverpool’s fixture turn and Callum Hudson-Odoi (£6.0m) are also generating their fair share of discussion in the Fantasy community.
Our rotating FPL Question Time panel are here to answer your questions on the above.
WHO’S ON THE PANEL THIS WEEK?
Applebonkers – A seasoned FFS face who boasts three top 10k finishes including an overall rank of 514, despite having a managing strategy he describes as “constantly fighting differential tourettes”. Likes to find a flaw in the seemingly untouchable and a ray of light in the stigma players.
Twisted Saltergater – A valued community member with ten years on FFS and 13 seasons of FPL under his belt, there’s nothing that TS hasn’t seen before.
Pirlø’s Pen – An dedicated and consistent FPL manager who hasn’t finished outside of the top 50k in the last four seasons. Carefully managed his Community team to become the Fantasy Chilli Bowl Champions in 16/17.
David Munday – Editor of Fantasy Football Scout.
Answers
Howard Miller: If the premium Man City players like Sterling and Aguero are not immune to
Applebonkers: Despite Man City’s best efforts to redefine how we think about FPL, I still cling on to the perhaps outdated belief that you pick nailed-on players, especially at the higher prices.
If City’s disgustingly bloated squad doesn’t offer a Mane/Salah/Kane level of security then at least the next best thing, can you confidently call them a first-choice player? Sterling you can, Aguero you still just about can, De Bruyne you can, but can you with Mahrez or David Silva? I’m not so sure, both those players look more circumstantial.
A Bernardo Silva injury/ban in Mahrez’s case or a string of international breaks in David Silva’s case. Maybe even a pre-Wildcard punt when you’re only betting on one teamsheet. Meanwhile
The season so far has made a fool of my old-school beliefs but, like a
Rather than jump down to another Man City pick, I’d still lean towards looking at safe starters elsewhere. Long term you’re likely saving transfers and dodging potential tail-chasing.
Twisted Saltergater: Despite being arguably the most explosive of FPL assets, my patience with Aguero wore out this week. That could bite me on the rear with Man City having two home fixtures up next, but for me, it boils down to having a couple of go-to captain options. At £12.2m, Aguero has to be a reliable captain pick.
By reliable, he doesn’t need to haul every Gameweek (although that would make things considerably easier), but you need to feel confident of him starting matches. The form of Jesus (a goal a game) and how sharp he looks means that Pep has a genuine alternative without weakening his starting line-up.
I don’t perceive the same threat of rotation with Sterling. Sané’s injury means there are three players (Mahrez, Bernardo Silva and Sterling) competing for two wide attacking roles.
Pep also doesn’t have an equivalent player in his squad that operates as the ‘inside forward’ in the way Sterling does. Bernardo Silva can fulfil that role as he did in the 8-0 thrashing of Watford, but that has been the only exception to the rule thus far.
If Aguero is your blonde bombshell, then Vardy might be the brunette librarian. However, there’s plenty of fun to be had with the £3.0m realised by that ‘downgrade’.
Suddenly, Cantwell can become David Silva. Four double-digit returns already this season, he’s averaging 5.7 points per game. So, if you can handle his minutes being managed and the inevitable one-pointers, he will deliver over the longer term.
I actually have enough funds in the bank for Mahrez. Personally, that extra £1.0m over David Silva means the rotation risk with Bernardo Silva becomes more of an obstacle. If the impending FA charge carries a suspension then Mahrez should become very popular indeed. Until then, I think David Silva + £1.0m shades it.
Just a quick point on de Bruyne. Keep an eye on how much additional defensive cover he is providing since his return from injury. Particularly with the troubles at centre-back, Pep may have asked Kevin to rein in his attacking tendencies. We should know more following their next home game with Villa.
Migas: Best Pukki replacement of same value or lower?
Pirlø’s Pen: For the next
After these two games, the fixtures really firm up, and at the same time Danny Ings’ fixtures clear up.
I think swapping these two is very viable and will give you a set of really appealing fixtures.
However, if I were looking for a Pukki replacement myself, I would either be downgrading to Connolly and investing more in my midfield or finding the extra cash from elsewhere to upgrade to the far superior options in Vardy, Jiménez, Abraham or even Rashford with his kind upcoming run of games.
David: I have been really impressed with Chris Wood of late, the Burnley forward scoring four goals in as many Premier League matches.
Although he’s got Chelsea at home this weekend, I don’t think this is much of a tough fixture for him.
Burnley have always had a knack for crashing the clean sheet party and given Wood’s form I don’t see why that can’t continue in Gameweek 10, especially at Turf Moor.
Over the last four Gameweeks, only five players in the Premier League have recorded better minutes per expected goal involvement (mins per
Once this round of action is out of the way, Burnley face Sheffield United (away), West Ham (home), Watford (away) and Crystal Palace (home).
Jullepuu: Is it better to double up on Liverpool defenders or attackers when their fixtures turn?
Applebonkers: The captain’s armband probably has to be mentioned here. If you are someone who only captains midfielders or forwards then it only takes one Liverpool attacker to essentially ‘cover’ the armband option in every juicy fixture of theirs.
With Alisson now back you can arguably add another £1.0m to the value of all Liverpool defenders.
Meanwhile, you could arguably strip £1.0m of value from Liverpool attackers given the extra competition Mané/Salah/Firmino will face when fighting for bonus if Liverpool keep a clean sheet.
Sure, Mané and Salah will get an extra point in a clean sheet but I’ve got a word count to stay below here, am already furious with Scout for inviting me on and adding to an already bad case of overthinkingitis.
The more budget-friendly route of double defence is where I’m leaning but you can’t scoff at the alternative as that’s essentially saying Mané or Salah (or Firmino) are bad options.
Twisted Saltergater: As someone who brought in Firmino for four Gameweeks and 31 points, I’m not going to persuade anyone to not double up on the Liverpool attack.
At the time, I could cover the Liverpool defence with Adrian – a £2.5m saving on Alexander-Arnold or Robertson – that enabled the Firmino pick.
That said, I would be reluctant to have both Mané and Salah because of their premium price and you’d be giving yourself a captaincy headache.
With the return of Alisson, and Matip settling in alongside van Dijk, I expect clean sheets to follow.
Alexander-Arnold and Robertson with their attacking threat should keep pace with similarly priced £7.0m midfielders and strikers.
So for me, I’d prefer those two full-backs plus one of Mané or Salah, whichever you feel comfortable captaining.”
Pirlø’s Pen: I think now is the time for Wolves assets. When looking for my Pukki replacement last week, I turned my attention to the attacking Season Ticker and Wolves were at the top of the tree.
If you are looking for a reliable long-term striking option I don’t believe you should look any further than Jiménez at £7.1m.
I remember being shocked at his low price when the initial price reveals came out. Now he’s dropped £0.4m and sits at £7.1m, the first word that comes to mind is *bargain*.
Kyle: Is it now worth having a big front seven and going lighter in defence?
Twisted Saltergater: It’s certainly viable. With the emergence of Lundstram, Rico, Targett, Dunk, Soyuncu and co., clean sheets are not exclusive to the ‘big six’ teams. Throw in Tomori at Chelsea, potentially Aurier at Spurs, and budget-priced centre-backs at Man City, and you don’t need to shop in the basement.
I saw a stat that showed the frequency of clean sheets this season are broadly in line with past seasons, but there’s been a greater variety in the teams achieving them. Variety means unpredictability for us, so why pay a premium at the back?
Alexander-Arnold with his attacking threat is practically essential, so a compromise might be to partner him with the aforementioned £4.5m enablers. Focus on centre-backs that are BAP magnets in the sub-£5.0m bracket, and look for full-backs and wing-backs with the most attacking threat if shopping for richer tastes.
Applebonkers: I think every player should be looked at individually, in essence letting the players decide the formation/structure.
Right now, even £4.5m defenders look like a luxury with the glorious/infuriating (delete as appropriate) rise of Lundstram, Rico and Kelly. Are opposition attackers going to keep missing glaring chances against Sheffield Utd? Are Bournemouth going to continue keeping clean sheets or can Rico keep assisting in the games they don’t? Will Kelly continue holding off Tomkins and Sakho long-term? Can the premium defenders keep dodging clean sheets so consistently? My personal hunch is the answer to all of these questions will start to tip the balance back towards the pricier defensive assets and open the door for all sorts of successful structures once more.
Identify the players you want most and see what structure that takes you towards. It only takes a double transfer to become your own chiropractor and snap your team into another shape in a month’s time.
Pirlø’s Pen: In short, not at all. Owning Abraham and Mount won’t affect how many points Hudson-Odoi scores.
I think it’s important to look at each pick in isolation, and when you do, they are all top options in their price brackets. Owning all three is a luxury that won’t come around next season, as they are all sure to get heavy price increases. Take advantage of that whilst you still can.
David: Personally, I do think this could be a bit too much, especially ahead of a trip to Burnley in Gameweek 10.
I think Abraham, Mount and Hudson-Odoi are all strong options but I can’t see a particularly free-flowing game at Turf Moor.
The Clarets have specialised in making their home ground a tough place to visit once again, with clean sheets in all but one of their four matches there this season.
Furthermore, Sean Dyche’s men are in the top four for the lowest expected goals conceded (
I think there could be value in going for it and the three players you’ve mentioned in combination are a good way to play out some shield-to-sword/upside-chasing tactics.
But, for me, attacking triple-ups are all about timing.
I’d rather be looking at deploying such a trio from Gameweek 11 onwards, personally, when Chelsea travel to face Watford before a home match with Crystal Palace.
West Ham and Aston Villa also have to come to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 14 and 15.
The only other arguments against such a set-up include whether you use a Chelsea slot on either Tomori or Alonso with some strong clean sheet potential over the next six Gamweeks.
Also, if you’re tripling on the Chelsea attack, remember that it has to go away to Manchester City in Gameweek 13 too…
