Pro Pundits - Andy
15 September 2020 3219 comments
andy85wsm andy85wsm
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What have I learned from Gameweek 1? It’s the same every year. Don’t panic after just one Gameweek. Remember why you chose those players. If you can save a transfer that’s ideal.

All words of wisdom we heard in pre-season, which is why less than 24 hours after Gameweek 1 ending I’ve considered no transfers, one transfer and even a hit! Fantasy Premier League is truly back.

In this article I want to see if there’s anything we can take away from Gameweek 1. It should be noted that making rash decisions based on one Gameweek is often a fools game, but we should always try and spot what we can, especially this early on.

Everton

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts

Lots was made of Everton’s sub-par performances during Project Restart. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m) didn’t score at all, and they looked as a whole, very poor as a team.

Fast-forward to signing a whole new midfield in Allan (£5.5m), Abdoulaye Doucouré (£5.5m) and James Rodríguez (£7.5m), and it’s suddenly a whole different story.

The midfield three, which included Allan, Doucouré and André Gomes (£5.5m) looked like it had been playing together for years, and Rodríguez looked like that player that some people probably haven’t seen play since the World Cup in 2014. He constantly caused Ben Davies (£5.0m) issues even without pace on his side, and with five chances created against a strong enough Tottenham Hotspur side, we should be taking note.

It’s also worth noting that Everton’s game plan was to seemingly target the side of Matt Doherty (£6.0m), with Rodríguez often playing balls out to Richarlison. With West Brom, Crystal Palace and Brighton up next it may be something they continue to try, although Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) might have something to say about that in the Brighton game.

Just to quickly touch on Lucas Digne (£6.0m) as well. It was interesting to see that Rodríguez didn’t monopolise set pieces, and Digne was still on lots of corners and free-kicks, which is ultimately where his assist came from. He only created one chance in the game, but with more freedom against teams that don’t have a marauding full back like Doherty, he could still be a great option, especially with the new look midfield giving the defence more protection.

Sheffield United

Chelsea

I’ve been pretty vocal in my excitement for Chelsea players this season but it might take a bit longer for their new signings to gel together like Everton’s did. Without some of their key players being fit, I’m looking at your Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m), it may be more sensible to hold off on loading up too soon.

They beat Brighton 3-1 but it wasn’t convincing. The xG for the game was Brighton 1.05 v 1.22 Chelsea..

Reece James (£5.0m) rewarded owners handsomely, but I’m not expecting him to score a 20 yard goal every week. And the third goal was helped through a significant deflection.

It might be harsh but I also thought Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.0m) was at fault for the goal they did concede, and it wouldn’t be the first time. I think I’ll continue avoiding Chelsea defenders until a replacement comes in (which may be soon), despite their relatively good underlying numbers last year.

In attack to say Kai Havertz (£8.5m) didn’t look good would probably be an understatement. He created just one chance and had zero shots. It’s too quick to write him off, he’s a young player, playing in a new team, in a new league, but for owners it may be concerning with Liverpool (home) up next. When Pulisic and Ziyech are finally fit we should see Havertz move more centrally, rather than playing out wide and that should broaden his points potential.

I don’t think Havertz is necessarily a rush to sell, but the timelines on certain injuries to other players in the squad would help me if I had to make that decision. After Liverpool it’s West Brom, Crystal Palace and Southampton up next, so there’s certainly some promise there.

For any promise Havertz didn’t show, Timo Werner (£9.5m)  defintiely did. He managed five shots in the box, and also won the penalty. His speed in the transition from defence to attack will be huge, and playing off the shoulder against Liverpool could see plenty of counter attacking opportunities. Just an assist is hard to swallow for his 46.5% owners, but a goal looks to be right around the corner.

Liverpool

value-players-2020-21

This probably isn’t news to some, but the Liverpool defence is still pretty good, despite heavy transfers out for the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m)

Leeds United may have impressed and scored three goals, but this came from an xG of just 0.32. On another day Leeds may not have scored at all.

What was most worrying to me was Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) making another mistake and gifting Patrick Bamford (£5.6m) a goal. It’s easy to put those mistakes down to a league winning hangover, but we don’t have that excuse now and it’s something to monitor – hopefully just first game of the season rustiness. 

I don’t think we should have been expecting too many clean sheets from Leeds, Chelsea and Arsenal in the first three Gameweeks, players like Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) and Alexander-Arnold are long term holds after all, which is why the Leeds result doesn’t put me off when you look at the underlying numbers.

In attack, Mohammad Salah (£12.0m) owners can probably consider themselves a little lucky (I know I do), to have gotten two penalties in one game. Although it’s worth noting for a lot of people getting penalties for the same price as Sadio Mané (£12.0m) was key reason behind the pick.

From an “eye test” perspective Salah looked sharp, and any pre-season lack of form or sharpness was not to be seen. The same can’t be said of Mané who I thought looked poor at times with sloppy passing that broke down some attacks.

But when you look at the underlying numbers, both Salah (0.38) and Mané (0.27) had fairly similar npXG and it’s probably not worth panicking too much after just one Gameweek. Although for some people perhaps it’s just dawned on them that penalties can be very handy in FPL, and Salah is probably worth owning long term whilst they are the same price.

For more detailed information on every match played in Gameweek 1, please check out the Scout Notes articles written by David and Neale, linked below. These include in-depth analysis as well as some exclusive additional sections for Premium Members.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 1

3,219 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. davewg59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Thoughts on TAA to Digne?

    1. Pickle juice
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Do it

    2. diabydoesgallas
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Hell naw

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Digne is great but think you would regret it

    4. Amey
      6 years, 1 month ago

      What are you using Change for ?

    5. Botman and Robben
      6 years, 1 month ago

      No

    6. COLLIN QUANER
      6 years, 1 month ago

      No

  2. Nightcrawler
    6 years, 1 month ago

    WC Team atm

    Martinez Steer

    Mitchell Saiss Gabriel Justin Digne

    Bruno Salah Auba Hendrick BIssuma

    Wilson DCL Martial

    1m itb

    ------auba will turn into kdb/sterling depending on how they play

    ------ Gabreil/digne to TAA once pool fixtures improve. Just trying to suck out some team value from them while they have reaosmable fixtures in the next 3

    1. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Don't like the Hendrick pick...

      Jimi over Wilson and downgrade defence or Bruno to Rashford

      Gabriel games turn after this.... Chelsea defender better if anything

  3. Will J 256
    6 years, 1 month ago

    I know we haven’t seen form and stats from GW2 but is this is a viable hit for GW3?
    Aubameyang and Werner to KDB and Martial (-4)?

    1. diabydoesgallas
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Werner feels like a season keeper tbh.

      1. Gunners in Haaland
        6 years, 1 month ago

        This

    2. TheDragon
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Look at chelsea fixtures from GW3

  4. diabydoesgallas
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Bale in talks to join spurs as per fabrizio Romano. Could shake things up

    1. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Along with the left back, Reguilon

  5. TAT
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Which looks better?
    Ings > Martial (FT)
    Ings + Havertz > Martial + JRod (-4)
    Ings + Havertz > DCL + Fernandes (-4)

    1. diabydoesgallas
      6 years, 1 month ago

      C for me

      1. TAT
        6 years, 1 month ago

        I'm between that move or A at the moment. A was my initial plan, though that hit might set up the team more for future games.

    2. Kante Touch This
      6 years, 1 month ago

      After reading this article I'm heavily considering a punt on Ing to Richarlison, otherwise its Martial, his fixtures are great

      1. TAT
        6 years, 1 month ago

        I've been burned by Richarlison before, so he's a bit wait and see for me at that price. Writing that, he will no doubt smash it going forward!

  6. Tinmen
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Folks, had a terrible start and need help with this one please

    Son and Nketiah to ?

    A) Bruno and Brewster
    B) JamesR/Greenwood and DCL
    C) 6mil(dunno who) and Martial

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      6 years, 1 month ago

      which paring age playing the whipping boys WBA ?

  7. xHaTr
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Bruno and DCL look to be going up tonight... Think Im going to pull the trigger on this -4

    Ings and Son --> Bruno and DCL

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      6 years, 1 month ago

      I can totally see the temptation. But it could backfire!

  8. keefy59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 month ago

    After a slow start Grealish (£7M) & Watkins (£6m) looking good
    Difficult fixtures 4-8 but a decent run 9-15
    On the watchlist

  9. bigdip
    6 years, 1 month ago

    (0 ITB, 1 FT) What changes shall I make?

    Mccarthy/Steer
    Egan/TAA/Mina/Doherty (KWP,Mitchell)
    ASM/Auba(c)/Son/Salah
    Werner/Mitrovic/Adams

    A) Son & Mitro -> Rashford & Bamford (-4)
    B) TAA & Son -> Digne & Bruno (-4)
    C) TAA & Son -> VVD/Robertson & Rashford (-4)
    D) Mitro & Adams -> DCL & 5mn less forward
    E) Any other suggestions

  10. manu4life99
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A) Alli > JRod
    B) Ings > Martial

    1. JamTart
      6 years, 1 month ago

      As my post below says, I'm thinking of both!

      1. manu4life99
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Tough as I'm skeptical over utd attack as fix look better than they are and we have no form to gauge

        Ings could do well with his fix, makes me lean towards Alli

  11. JamTart
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Ings and Alli to Martial and Rodriguez to avoid the price changes ruining my chance?

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      6 years, 1 month ago

      for sure

      1. Amey
        6 years, 1 month ago

        🙄

        1. JamTart
          6 years, 1 month ago

          Why the eyes?

        2. Hotdogs for Tea
          6 years, 1 month ago

          they are great moves though ... well worth it

          1. Amey
            6 years, 1 month ago

            That was a sarcastic reply ! 😀

            1. JamTart
              6 years, 1 month ago

              Got you now!

              1. Amey
                6 years, 1 month ago

                🙂

    2. MESSINHO
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Considering the same. What do you think about Fernandes + Watkins?

    3. diabydoesgallas
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Not sure Rodriguez is the answer

      1. linkafu
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Greenwood?

      2. JamTart
        6 years, 1 month ago

        I'm skeptical but nice fxtures and created a lot of chances so against weaker teams and once he gets more gametime under him surely he's only going to improve?

  12. R Whites
    6 years, 1 month ago

    McC (Steer)
    TAA, Justin, Taylor (KWP, Mitchell)
    Auba (c), Salah, Bruno, Barnes, Soucek
    Timo, Mitro (4.5m)

    Gtg? Before Auba to KdB next week, along with operation bin soucek..?

  13. Amey
    6 years, 1 month ago

    So Spurs are getting LWB & RWB from RM .... Nice one Jose

    1. Rocky FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Haha. Bale on the right will be scary though if he can stay fit.

      1. Amey
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Big IF 😉

        1. Rocky FPL
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          6 years, 1 month ago

          Very big. Also I think Reguillon will eventually replace Davies/Shaw wherever he finally ends up. The boy is quality.

          1. Amey
            6 years, 1 month ago

            Yeah

  14. Strchld
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Alli and Ings >> Rodriguez and Martial for a -4? Yay or nay

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Yay

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      6 years, 1 month ago

      yay

    3. Strchld
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks both

  15. Fudgy
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Bale to Spurs confirmed according to Jonty on the scout cast!!!

    1. keefy59
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Would love him at Everton
      Rich on left
      DCL up top
      J.Rod cam
      Bale on right

    2. FFSbet.com
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Mou going for top4 now

  16. Kasper the ghost keeper
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A) Pulisic -> Son/Rodriguez
    B) Ings -> Martial
    C Pulisic & Ings -> Bruno & DCL(-4)
    D) Pulisic & Ings -> Rodriguez & Martial (-4)

    1. linkafu
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A Son

  17. linkafu
    6 years, 1 month ago

    A- Alli to Greenwood
    B-Alli to James

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. Kasper the ghost keeper
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B

  18. Babelcopter
    6 years, 1 month ago

    It’s so crazy that people already using wc, doing multiple transfers and panicing all over the place. I think tears everywhere when GW 2 ends.

    1. Amey
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Amen

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Ameyn

        1. Amey
          6 years, 1 month ago

          😀

    2. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Because you didn’t act?!

    3. FFSbet.com
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Actually enjoying WC,cant understand some posters waiting to see how Man.Utd and City will play.

      If you want to punt on Greenwood and Foden ok but Bruno and KDB?nothing to see there

  19. primal33
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 month ago

    I'm now torn between:
    A. Ings > Martial (FT)
    B. Ings + Havertz > DCL + Bruno (-4)

    If B then next week is Auba to KdB

    1. FFSbet.com
      6 years, 1 month ago

      B set you up nicely

  20. FFSbet.com
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Best nailed 6.0M striker?

    Mitro not sure,they are after another striker in market

    Watkins,think they signed another striker

    Rodrigo/Bamford no go

    Bats nailed maybe?

    1. Amey
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Get 0.5 & buy Wilson or Wood

      1. FFSbet.com
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah Wilson is good option but hard to find 0.5

        1. Amey
          6 years, 1 month ago

          You're on WC !
          Find it 😀

    2. Lucky Z
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Yes Bats is very nailed. Have not played a single minute yet.

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Watkins?

      1. FFSbet.com
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Competition from new stiker?

    4. Pukki Party
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Adams

  21. Pep Roulette
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Are Willian & Bamford likely to have two rises this gameweek?

    1. primal33
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Strong likelihood

  22. bruuuno
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Who should I transfer out for Rasford?

    A. Alli
    B. Havertz

    1. Lucky Z
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. linkafu
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A

  23. Red-United
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Arghhh!

    Anyone else on a wildcard atm finding yourself 0.5 short of having the 'perfect' team?

    Desperately trying to fit Digne in but I don't think it's meant to be. Eyeing up Mina instead (who is 0.5 cheaper) for the next few gameweeks as he is always a goal threat.

    Do we think Digne will also rise in price before the next gameweek?

    1. Lucky Z
      6 years, 1 month ago

      No value in Mina. Digne is other thing.

    2. DRIZ ✅
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Reset it until can fit Digne

  24. Lucky Z
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Ryan
    TAA | KWP | Lascelles
    B.Fernandes | Son | Salah | Auba | Soucek
    DCL | Mitrovic

    GTG? On -4.

  25. Daniel Exeter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Son and Batshuayi > Rashford and DCL? -4

    1. Lucky Z
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Son was very lively. I would keep for next 2

      1. xHaTr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 years, 1 month ago

        He really wasnt

  26. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Who to bench folks?
    A. Taylor (lei)
    B. Egan (avl)
    C. JWP (TOT)

    1. DRIZ ✅
      6 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. Eytexi
      6 years, 1 month ago

      A

  27. JamTart
    6 years, 1 month ago

    So if I hold Alli and he swaps with Bale, I just get Bale for free in his place... right?

    1. DRIZ ✅
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Correct

      1. JamTart
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Saves me a hit too. Bargain!

    2. Greenbackbøøg…
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Is it a rumour Alli is in the Bale deal?

      1. JamTart
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, rumours of him falling out with Mou at the weekend. But who knows.I'd punted on Alli because I thought he'd be Mourinho's type of player

    3. Brosstan
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Bale will be the new Sanchez

  28. LanMi
    6 years, 1 month ago

    RMT

    GKP: Steer (McCarthy)
    DEF: Doherty, Ayling, Webster (Alexander-Arnold) (Vinagre)
    MID: De Bruyne, Aubameyang, Son, Saint-Maximin (Pereira)
    FWD: Mitrović, Bamford, Jiménez

    1. DRIZ ✅
      6 years, 1 month ago

      7/10 missing manutd coverage

      1. LanMi
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Next GW bringing Bruno/Martial.

    2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      6 years, 1 month ago

      Trent on the bench?

      1. LanMi
        6 years, 1 month ago

        Mistakenly

  29. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    6 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone know how long Nathan Ferguson is out for?

  30. stat sifter 888888
    6 years, 1 month ago

    I know it's crazy but I feel that price rises are forcing my hand. Thoughts:

    Ryan/4.0
    Justin/Lewis/Robbo/Mitchell/4.0
    Barnes/Pulisic/Salah/KDB
    Martial/Jimi/Wilson

    Bit scared of an Auba goal-fest but KDB's price is scheduled to go up and then I would have to compromise Wilson for a 6.0 striker. Unless someone tells me that De Bruyne's price definitely should not go up not sure I have much option.