Pro Pundits - Mark
16 October 2020 3031 comments
Mark Mark
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Mark Sutherns explains why he’s sticking to his guns amid the Liverpool defensive firesale.


I remain defiant when it comes to Liverpool’s full-backs. An avalanche of goals is flushing funds from Fantasy Premier League defences and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Andy Robertson (£7.0m) are rapidly being classified as disposable. But I’m not having it.

I’m not denying the logic. Liverpool have kept just four clean sheets in 13 matches since the restart and the injury to Alisson (£6.0m), a crucial component in Jurgen Klopp’s defensive jigsaw, nudges a hapless Adrian (£4.5m) into the firing line.

That worrying scenario provides a sub-plot to a season that, so far, has seen 144 goals scored, a rate of 3.79 goals per game. That’s a ridiculous figure: the record for a Premier League season was set in 1992/93 when we witnessed a rate of 2.65 goals per game.

So FPL managers are reassessing their team structure and flooding to the major benefactors of the goal rush, notably Spurs’ Harry Kane (£10.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.1m).

Expensive defenders are being sacrificed and, should Alexander-Arnold and Robertson fail to return in Saturday’s Merseyside derby, the evacuation will only gather pace.

But the recent explosion from the Spurs pair isn’t enough to convince me to give up on my two defensive investments. I may well move funds from Lucas Digne (£6.1m) and Reece James (£5.1m) and replace them with £4.5m options, but I’m remaining steadfast on the Liverpool full-backs.

At this stage, FPL managers normally start to seek out trends and patterns vital to drive our decisions – our transfers, our early-season Wildcards.

But we’ve never experienced a start to the season like this. We’re in the midst of something extreme that, to my mind, makes it impossible to find the comforting foothold of reliable data and form.

So with just this small and extraordinary sample of matches as my reference, I’m refusing to write off a player who, prior to Gameweek 1, was the first name on almost every FPL teamsheet.

At the time of writing, over almost 240,000 managers have sold Alexander-Arnold heading into Saturday’s deadline.

Admittedly, his performances have contributed to that trend. He has been short of his best by some margin and has been strangely peripheral to Liverpool’s play. However, Alexander-Arnold’s numbers remain impressive: only West Ham’s Ryan Fredericks (£4.4m) and Aaron Cresswell (£4.9m) have created more chances among players in his Fantasy position, and with seven efforts on goal, no defender has bettered his direct threat. If you are brave enough to use data given the bizarre four Gameweeks we’ve had, there’s little in the numbers to drive you to sell.

Alexander-Arnold is a player that has provided 28 assists and five goals in his previous two campaigns, with his points tally improving from 185 points to 210. Since the start of the 2019/20 campaign, only Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) and Jack Grealish (£7.1m) have created more chances and on Boxing Day last year, the right-back coupled that creativity with an eye for goal to haul of 24-points, a record for a defender in the history of FPL.

Is this really an asset we can reject on the basis of four bizarre Gameweeks?

On Liverpool’s opposite flank, Robertson appears to be reaching new levels as an attacking outlet. He’s overshadowed Alexander-Arnold since the restart, creating more chances (22 vs 20) and more big chances (six versus three), while he’s surely passed the eye test.

The Scot is pouring forward on the left flank, overlapping Mane time and time again. He already has a first goal to his name and there should be more to come.

Fabinho bolsters Liverpool defence as Werner shows promise ahead of West Brom

Liverpool will be backed to be second only to Manchester City for goals scored again this season and, collectively, their full-backs have provided 34% of the assists since the start of the 2018/19 season.

So while the chances of clean sheets in the short-term may be diminished by Adrian’s tenure, Klopp’s side will have to score more goals to win matches and that will surely benefit their primary source of creativity.

And I’m not giving up on defensive returns, either.

We have to expect Klopp to react to the Villa Park mauling. He will surely focus on shutting down the gaps that were exploited in that defeat. The return of Jordan Henderson (£5.4m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) – both vital to Liverpool’s pressing game that denies opponents the time to exploit a high line – must also be factored in.

That aforementioned record of four clean sheets from 13 outings includes eight matches when the title was almost in the bag. But Liverpool cannot show any complacency now. Pep Guardiola will demand that his City side match Liverpool’s own relentless consistency, so Klopp will know that he has to quickly find a solution to their defensive frailties.

The fixture list convinces me that I can give him time.

Liverpool face just a Gameweek 8 trip to the Etihad and a home clash with Spurs in Gameweek 13 as major tests before the deadline for the first Wildcard.

So for this FPL manager, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson remain at the status they held before the madness ensued: unique assets who can present outstanding value.

They are investments worthy of that extra five million, particularly when I can compensate for that spend by investigating mid-price assets in attacking areas. We’ve already seen that Grealish, James Rodriguez (£7.6m), Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) are options that offer the potential of returns that keep pace or even better the top tier players.

It’s going to take a Jose Mourinho team to go on scoring five and six goals a game to convince me otherwise. At that point, the madness shifts to a whole new level.


Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,031 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. KDB4PREZ
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    RMWCT please and thank you. Any input appreciated

    Martinez/Forster

    Taa/Semedo/Lamptey/Dallas/3.9

    Salah/Son/Pulisic/Grealish/Trossard

    Kane/Richarlison/Brewster

    1. Emiliano Sala
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      G2g

  2. H-SF
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    KDB drop tonight?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      No, but Trent will.

    2. Emiliano Sala
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Yes

      1. Emiliano Sala
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        Just checked. Not very likely.

    3. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Unlikely. Trent, maybe, but I'll say unlikely at this point in time

  3. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Who's biting the bullet and holding KDB this week?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      o/

      Squad is strong enough to cope.

      1. FPLMACKEM
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        My replacements are Burke then Lewis. I'm tempted to hold and hope Burke plays at home to Fulham.

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 17 Years
          6 years, 3 hours ago

          you never know. Probably more likely than Brewster starting, actually.

          1. FPLMACKEM
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 3 hours ago

            Yeah and TBF Fulham at home is the exact game you'd want to use Burke if you had him.

    2. F_Ivanovic
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      not me... i was already debating to get rid for Son before the injury... so now he's confirmed out it was a no brainer.

  4. Scratch
    • 17 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Which one to get

    A. Grealish
    B. Pulisic
    C. Fernandes
    D. Jorginho then figure out which mid I really want & upgrading my £4.5m next week

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      A

    2. theoldgit
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      B

  5. Emiliano Sala
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Sorry to ask again

    Which one on WC??

    A) Werner + Reguilon
    B) Richarlison + Robertson

    *Own TAA, Pulisic and Hames
    Currently on A

    1. Old Wulfrunian
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      If you don't have Dcl then B.

      1. Emiliano Sala
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        No I don't

  6. -RAKEY-
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    A) Dallas & Trossard (352)
    or
    B) Semedo & Soucek + 0.1m (442)

  7. Skout
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    How long is KDB likely out for?

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      No-one knows, but it looks a short term injury.

    2. Andre W
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Short term apparently. I've heard 1-2 weeks

  8. -RAKEY-
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    A) Dallas & Trossard (352)
    or
    B) Semedo & Soucek + 0.1m (442)

    Rest of team is:
    Martinez
    Chilwell - Robertson - Castagne - Lamptey - Dallas/Semedo
    Salah - Son - Rodriguez - Grealish - Trossard/Soucek
    Kane - Calvert-Lewin - Brewster

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      A imo

      1. -RAKEY-
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        Currently what I'm siding towards. Semedo is tempting me though

        1. Pep Roulette
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 3 hours ago

          Is this your WC?

          1. -RAKEY-
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 3 hours ago

            Yes, this is WC

            1. Pep Roulette
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 3 hours ago

              Choose one from Castagne & Semedo then. Keep Dallas & Trossard.

  9. Lignja
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Wilson or Grealish for last spot on Wc?

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Grealish ez

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Grealish.

    3. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Grealish all day don't look back

    4. Lignja
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      thanks, had Wilson since gw 1 done nice to me feal bad losing him 🙂 but yes Grealish look nice

  10. Sarriball Time
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    One question guys, Will Reece James start...? If he doesn't then should I swap him with Chilwell for -4...? Thanks.

    1. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Too Sideways Chance James with a decent first sub

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Not worth a -4. I'm starting him but don't have massive expectations. Who's your backup if he doesn't feature?

      1. Sarriball Time
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        Dunne from Burnley.

        1. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 17 Years
          6 years, 3 hours ago

          Dunne is your 4th defender?!

          1. Sarriball Time
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 3 hours ago

            Sorry my bad. It's Mitchell.

    3. Old Wulfrunian
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      If you have a playable sub it's not worth.

    4. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Might not play but not worth -4. You probably have a fine sub if noshow from James anyway?

    5. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Seems 50/50 on the Chelsea forums at least
      Not sure it's worth a -4 if you have a bench option

  11. waldo666
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Price changes in half an hour or hour and a half?

    1. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      latter

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      h n a h

    3. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Around hour and a half

    4. waldo666
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Cheers all.

  12. LucasMoregametime
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Ryan (pickford)
    Rjames, VVD, Saiss (justin, mitchell)
    Salah, Son, Hamez, Zaha, Podence
    Kane (C), Jimi (brewster)

    G2G?

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Is this WC?

      1. LucasMoregametime
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        No WC

        1. Pep Roulette
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 3 hours ago

          GTG then

    2. storr84
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      G2G.

  13. storr84
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Need help, please.


    Martinez

    James Justin TAA Saiss
    Salah KDB Barnes Podence
    Maupay DCL Jimenez

    Steer Mitchell Anguissa

    A KDB - Son
    B KDB - Rashford
    C KDB - Grealish
    D Something else

    1FT - 1.9itb

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      A

  14. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Any Sheffield United fans know if Burke is likely to start on Sunday?

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Has a knock, so not sure

  15. jia you
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    KdB + Foden + Ings to Son + Pulisic + Watkins (-8)
    ...back to my hit happy self 😉

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Selling Ings with Kepa in goal? 😉

      1. jia you
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        did Son and Watkins early as thought Son would skyrocket... joys of early transfers!

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      I'd only do KDB to Pulisic for free.

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        KDB to Son**

        1. jia you
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 3 hours ago

          yeah but moved early on Son so was on a -4 before the KdB news unfortunately

    3. ZimZalabim
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      dont sell ings this week

    4. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      So basically KDB to Pulisic? I think I've talked myself into going Grealish instead of Puli. The next three look too good to ignore. Really want Pulisic too but might just hold until after United.

  16. ZimZalabim
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    so kdb to son for free ? any reason to wait ? any other option that looks better that ive missed ? or that is captainable ?

    own Salah and Sterling also

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Do it

    2. jia you
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      easy move, Son will likely be my captain

  17. have you seen cyan
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    TBH I have already used my FT and wasnt planning on doing another as I dont think I need to, but how would you upgrade this team (no wc).

    Guaita (Nyland)
    Saiss - Lamptey - Digne (KWP, Ferguson)
    Son - Trossard - Zaha - Bruno (Elneny)
    Jimi - Wood - DCL

    7.9 itb

  18. Skout
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Is Mitchell likely to play any more?

    Best 4.2 or below defender now? On WC

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      I think he plays this one. I'm starting him!

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Hopefully this week, but I wouldn’t be getting him on a WC. If he’s your 4th defender, I think you need to rework your team to grab 0.2 elsewhere. If he’s your 5th, go down to Kilman or Brathwaite

  19. bitars
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Bench one of

    A) Lamptey

    B) Digne

    C) Saiss

    1. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      B

    2. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Probably A

  20. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Sterling captain anyone?

    1. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      With KDB out probably not. Son for me

    2. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      not for me

  21. waldo666
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    1 FT and 0.4 ITB

    Ryan
    TAA Semedo Mitchell
    KDB* Bruno Salah JWP
    Jiminez Wilson Mitrovic

    (Nyland* Bissouma Lascelles Douglas*)

    A) KDB to Son
    B) JWP to Trossard
    C) Save
    D) Something else

    1. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      A

      1. waldo666
        • 16 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        Cheers mate, leaning that way.

  22. ZTF
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Who’s more likely to start- Bailly or Lindelof

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Why?

  23. FPL_DON
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Evening chaps, desperate to sleep (lol) so any input would be hugely appreciated! Would you wildcard this team, I'm already on a -4?

    McCarthy (fodder)
    *Dier* TAA Taylor (Justin Mitchell)
    *KDB* Salah Son Soucek (*Reed*)
    DCL Maupay Jimi

  24. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Maupay or Watkins?

    1. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Maupday for me

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Watkins for me. I like Trossard more.

    3. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Watkins if only Avl. Rate the fixtures

    4. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Maupay. Pens swung it for me.

  25. Sz21
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Jimenez-> Kane for a -4?

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      no

    2. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      no

    3. Old Wulfrunian
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Tough.Probably it's worth.

    4. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Only if you don’t have Salah or Son to captain

      1. Sz21
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        Have both. May leave it off.

    5. waldo666
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Absolutely not.

  26. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Best option to bring in for KDB ?

    A Grealish
    B Pulisic

    1. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      B, but more risky

    2. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      A - fixtures are tasty

    3. yanky
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      ive debating this same thing but its for a 4 pt hit and not sure what to do... i have werner already so my head is leaning grealish...

    4. Unfathomable Ruination
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      A for sure!

  27. Atwood
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Thoughts on this wildcard ?

    Martinez - Steer
    Robertson - Dallas - Justin - Saiss - KWP
    Salah - Grealish - Son - Rodriguez - Bissouma
    DCL - Kane - Wilson

    1. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      I would move Justin on and free up funds

    2. Unfathomable Ruination
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Looks pretty good, I'd say, if you are happy with your front 3.

  28. dmcnam12
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    KDB -> Sterling for a second hit? :/

    1. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      I am just benching KDB. Who would your sub be?

      1. dmcnam12
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 hours ago

        Probably Mitchell (BHA)

        1. dmcnam12
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 3 hours ago

          And if he doesn't play, Targett against Leicester

          1. Goons
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 3 hours ago

            Tricky I don't think either pull off a clean sheet. Got son?

  29. Alli
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    KDB to Sterling or Mané?

    McCarthy
    TAA - Justin - Mitchell
    KDB - Salah - Son - Zaha
    Wilson - DCL - Jimé

    Nyland - Stephens - KWP - Holding

    1. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      mane imo

    2. Unfathomable Ruination
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Same dilemma - I am thinking Mane if you can afford him. I worry Sterling will be rested next week against WHU due to CL commitments. Mane seems to be a big differential in my minileague. I figure if I, like you, have Salah and Mane, it could work out well if a lot of your ML rivals have neither.

  30. Unfathomable Ruination
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 hours ago

    Alright he's my team:

    Guaita
    Digne - James - Castagne
    Son - Salah - Klich - Podence - KDB*
    Werner - DCL

    4.0, Saiss, Davis, Dunne and 2FT.

    WHO DO I TRADE KDB FOR? James and then upgrade Podence to the likes of Grealish?

    1. have you seen cyan
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Well Werner is also an issue, and Kane is a great option. But you will want KDB back at some point

    2. Goons
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 3 hours ago

      Quite like KDB + Pod ---> Grealish + Puli