Introduction
As unpredictable as this season has been so far, a ‘temporary template’ squad has still emerged after the first 7 Gameweeks. According to livefpl.net, the top 10,000 current template is now relatively predictable. The 26.7% overall-owned Emiliano Martinez, at the time of writing, is owned by 55.6% of the managers inside the top10K. The other massive ownerships (higher than 30%) belong to Alex McCarthy (31.2%), Max Kilman (51.5%), Tyrick Mitchell (40.7%), Romain Saiss (32.6%), Heung-Min Son (86.0%), Mohamed Salah (79.6%), Jack Grealish (51.5%), James Rodriguez (39.3%), Wilfried Zaha (37.1%), Harry Kane (92.9%), and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (70.7%).
With such dominant figures, it seems very tricky for the managers outside the top 10k, including myself, to push into the famous prestige rank. Having those template players in our squad will not help our rank as lots of FPL managers already own them. Choosing differentials over the template implies that not only do we need our non-template players to haul, but we also need the template players to fail/perform worse than our non-template players. The question arises is whether that is even possible with the template players’ current form. The most owned top 10k player, Harry Kane, has produced 69 FPL points since Gameweek 2, averaging an enormous 11.5 points per Gameweek. He scored six goals and made eight assists during the same period, a result that transpired through the promising underlying stats. Delivering an unstoppable connection with Heung-Min Son, the Tottenham Hotspur duo do not look like they are going to stop any time soon.
Betting against them looks reckless while having them will not help us to climb the rank either. So, what do we have in our hands to overcome the situation? In this article, I would like to share my thoughts on the series of potential transfers that we can use to chase the points against the current template team.
The Fixture Swings – Hello!
Luckily, the fixtures provide us with a potential way to do what’s called the ‘upside chasing’, a method popularized by one of the best FPL managers of all time, Pranil a.k.a lateriser12 a.k.a the two time FPL champion of India. Starting from Gameweek 8 onwards, there will be teams whose schedule looks very tempting on paper for a prolonged period for each Gameweek, and should we capitalise on that, surely that could be our way to climb the ranks.
In Gameweek 8, both Crystal Palace and West Ham have particularly attractive sets of fixtures. Crystal Palace have Leeds (h), Burnley (a), Newcastle (h), and West Brom (a) in the next four. With the in-form Zaha looking set to be the Crystal Palace first-choice penalty taker once more following Luka Milivojevic’s red card in Gameweek 7. Both Zaha and Patrick van Aanholt could potentially deliver the points needed by the upside-chasers.
Meanwhile, West Ham have great fixtures up until the Christmas period, starting with Fulham (h), Sheffield United (a), Aston Villa (h), Manchester United (h), Leeds (a) and Crystal Palace (h) in the next 6 Gameweeks. The unexpectedly reliable backline haas plenty of cheap players to choose from, with Aaron Cresswell, Arthur Masuaku, and Vladimir Coufal emerging to be the standout options. Since they lost their first two Gameweeks, their xGC of 5.35 is among the best in the league. We should not forget their opponents during this period includes the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City, Wolves, Spurs, and Leicester. I will still be waiting before buying any West Ham attacking players due to Michail Anotnio missing out. I want to observe how they approach games without him.
After transferring in one or two of the Crystal Palace or West Ham assets, we also need to plan even further with Aston Villa and Manchester United being scheduled for another attractive set of fixtures ahead. The first seven fixtures from Gameweek 9 for Aston Villa are Brighton (h), West Ham (a), Newcastle (h), Wolves (a), Burnley (h), West Brom (a), Crystal Palace (h) with six of those currently sitting in the bottom half of the table. Holding an asset like Jack Grealish for a relatively long term will give us nothing but benefits. Regarding Manchester United, their Gameweek 9 fixture swing starts with West Brom (h), Southampton (a), West Ham (a) which makes assets like Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford appealing to enable a potential swift rank climb. Should they gain form at the right time, Edinson Cavani, Anthony Martial, or even Mason Greenwood could also be in the mix as options for our teams.
Gameweek 10 also provides us with more potentially key fixture swings with Newcastle United and Manchester City. Callum Wilson’s performances have caught our eye, with six big chances from his ten goal attempts in the last four Gameweek which is the best among forwards. Manchester City is another team that I believe we should get early should we need to chase the points. From gameweek 10 onwards, they’ll play Burnley (h), Fulham (h), Man United (a), West Brom (h), Southampton (a), and Newcastle (h), which is an unbelievable set of fixtures. The likes of Kevin de Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, Riyad Mahrez, and even Phil Foden will definitely become ‘must-have’ assets once they click, but with good planning, we can prepare to have them even before they become the must-have!
The fixture swings – Goodbye
The boundary condition of FPL, which also makes the game interesting, is that we always cannot have everyone we want. As much as we aim to chase the points, we cannot keep holding the like of Salah, Rodriguez, and Son without the sufficient budget to get the likes of Fernandes or Sterling. Thus, we have to prepare to say goodbye to some assets, obviously only if we are in the position of owning them right now.
For anyone looking to buy players from Crystal Palace West Ham United from Gameweek 8, Wolves’ assets are the potential sacrificial lambs, which could be a very easy switch. Wolves’ fixtures turn pretty rough soon, with seven of their next nine opponents finishing in the top half of the table last season. Despite settling as the traditionally reliable postman, Raul Jimenez has been posting unconvincing numbers this season, with only six shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks, generating an xG as low as 1.05. Add that with the uncertainties in the defensive options, particularly in the left-center back and the left wing-back spots, it may be time to say goodbye to Wolves players.
Gameweek 9 will provide a very tough test for Kane and Son owners. The first seven Premier League matches for Spurs starting from Gameweek 9 include Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leicester and Wolves. Getting off the Spurs train is going to be difficult remembering how reliable Kane and Son have been, but their FPL points are surely going to decline during these periods. Despite Kane’s consistent return, for example, his shot number have been shrinking in the last 4 Gameweeks from 7, 6, 4, to 2.
The final piece of the ‘upside chasing transfer’ in Gameweek 10 would be letting go of Chelsea assets. Despite their slow start to the season, Chelsea’s assets are still owned quite significantly. Timo Werner is still owned by more than 20% of managers, the same with Ben Chilwell. In gameweek 10, they face Tottenham (h), followed by Leeds (h), Everton (a), Wolves (h), West Ham (h) and Arsenal (a). The uncertainties in Frank Lampard’s team selection should make it easy for owners to let go, with Chilwell the only exception.
The ‘zombie team’
Although we are now talking about planning ahead, it will be pointless if the other FPL managers are going to spot the same transfer strategy anyway. However, by reading (and writing) this article, we are trying to get ahead of the curve, which will be discussed in the subsequent section. The question in this section is ‘who will we surpass should the strategy work well?’. There are at least two kinds of managers that well be left behind, at least logically, the ‘dead manager’ and the ‘non-fixtures’ managers.
The number of zombie teams will increases as the season goes. Pre-gameweek 7, according to the livefpl data shows that there are at least 9.5% of teams considered ‘dead’. Assuming that those ‘dead’ teams are below the 2m rank marks, the effective ownership of Kane and Son, for example, is still around 80% in that tier. Talking about Werner, there are still a good percentage of managers owning him.. It shows that those dead teams ranked below the 1.5m mark will have the players with the difficult run of fixtures. With our pre-planning to get in the likes of Man United and Man city assets, surely we’ll be all be climbing the ranks by Gameweek 11.
The ‘non-fixtures’ managers will also be affected, as they might be reluctant to let go of the assets that have been performing well for them. I do not intend to say at all that we should leave these on-form assets behind, it is about the risk and opportunity to get the assets with easier fixtures and hope they perform even better than the guys with the trickier fixtures.
Getting ahead of the curve – the importance of the squad price points
The tricky part of the transfer strategy is to get the budget right within our squad. It is easier to get the Crystal Palace, West Ham, Aston Villa and Newcastle united players considering their price, averaging below the £7m mark. However, with Man United and Man City players in mind from Gameweek 10 and Gameweek 11, obviously, we need to prepare a huge amount of budget, and our squad price points will be an integral part of that. The exciting Man United players, in particular, are only available at premium prices (e.g. Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford). I believe the likes of Juan Mata, Daniel James, or Odion Ighalo will find it hard to help our team getting those sought after FPL points. The direct swap with Son will probably be the easiest route for them. The Man City players, have different classifications. The wide range of options from the cheap 4th mid in Phil Foden, the mid-price Ferran Torres and Riyad Mahrez, right up to the premium De Bruyne and Sterling are all available. Only De Bruyne and Sterling though are relatively safe from Pep’s roulette. Should Aguero be back he is someone we could also prepare a slot for, perhaps by selling Kane. We need to keep our eye on the budget distribution if we want to get ahead of the FPL curves!
Conclusion
For those ‘fixtures’ managers, Gameweek 8 looks to be the most potent turning point in their fortune of this peculiar season. Should we be brave enough to gamble and chase the fixtures, we should prepare to hop on the Crystal Palace and/or West Ham United assets in Gameweek 8, followed by the Aston Villa and/or Manchester United assets in Gameweek 9, and finally the Newcastle United and/or Manchester City assets in Gameweek 10. The tricky part of FPL, where we cannot have them all, is the timing and planning on the method to get these assets in. Looking from the fixtures perspective, the cash-cows for the incoming players would come from Wolves in Gameweek 8, Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 9, and Chelsea in Gameweek 10. It is also important not only to jump on the team bandwagon, but also on the right players, and the squad price points will be key to provide such upside chasing routes.
