Hauling and Shot Calling

I watched an episode of the brilliant FPL BlackBox last week in which Mark and Az spoke about Double Digit Hauls and shared some insights on what drives them, who gets them and who concedes them – this inspired me, and I felt like there was definitely more gold that could be mined there. So I went Gameweek by Gameweek and rebuilt the data set to do my own analysis – it took me a few hours, but here’s what I found. I sent this to Az on Twitter, and he suggested I share it on Scout because he thought it might benefit the broader community – hope this helps, would love to know your thoughts / feedback. I’m new to the FPL community, would love to get to know all of you better!

DDHs (Double Digit Hauls) by position

• Midfielders have most (~50%) of the hauls, followed by defenders (~25%) but forwards and goalkeepers have much more consolidated hauls (you’re more likely to know which of the forwards or goalkeepers will get a haul)
  • The top 5 midfielders account for 21% of the total midfield DDHs –> Bruno is top with 6% of the midfielder hauls, Son is next at 5%, Gundogan at 3.9%, KdB and Mahrez at 3.5% each
  • The top 5 defenders account for just 17% of the total defender DDHs –> Cresswell at 5%, with Robertson, Justin, Shaw and Dias all at 3%
  • The top 5 forwards meanwhile account for 40% of total forward DDHs –> Kane and Vardy leading the way with a massive 10.5% each, followed by Bamford and Wilson at 7% and Ollie Watkins at 5%
    • This becomes even more pronounced for Kane when you look at mega-hauls (15+ points), where Kane’s share jumps to a massive 25% of the total forward mega-hauls (which are 20% of the total mega-hauls) while Vardy’s is at 12.5%.
    • Bruno meanwhile accounts for only 7% of mega-hauls for midfielders (vs. 6% share for Bruno in DDH for midfielders)
    • This shows me that yes while a midfielder is more likely to get a mega-haul overall, it’s harder to predict which midfielder will get it while if a forward gets a mega-haul it is highly likely to be Kane or Vardy
  • Meanwhile for goalkeepers, Martinez, Meslier and Pope account for 40% of the goalkeeper DDHs –> meaning if you have had one of these 3 goalkeepers, then you have likely had goalkeeper hauls. Mendy though, who is increasingly popular, hasn’t had a DDH all season vs. 6 for Meslier and Martinez (level with Kane and Vardy, as was mentioned on BlackBox too)
• Forward hauls spiked in the first 10 Gameweeks, and have dropped off heavily since –> GW 1-10 saw 44% of the total forward DDH, while GW 11-20 and GW 21-29 saw only 28% each
  • Reasons for this could be the form that Kane, Vardy, Bamford, DCL, Wilson showed in the first 10 Gameweeks after which Kane and Wilson have had spells of injury while DCL and Bamford dropped off and it coincided with midfield heavy sides like Man City and Man United hitting top goal-scoring form driven by Bruno, KdB and Gundogan and also much better defensive displays all-round leading to a growth in defender DDHs
  • Also, let’s remember that the first 10 Gameweeks were essentially an extended holiday for defenders, with the league going bonkers and goals flying in everywhere – if Jose’s Spurs were scoring that freely while Pep’s City were struggling to find the net, we all knew a correction was coming
  • This also relates to the point above that the hauls are consolidated, actually 45% of Fernandes’ hauls also came in GW1-10, and then 28% each in GW11-20 and GW21-29 but the emergence of Gundogan, Soucek and Pogba in GW11-20 maintained the overall midfielder share of the total. However, for Kane and Vardy they got 50% of their hauls in GW1-10, and then the hauls dropped for the entire set of forwards after this period.

Who gets the hauls?

• Man City (11.65% of total), Leicester (8.2%), Man United (7.95%) are the top 3 sides that get DDHs followed by Spurs and Villa at 7.14% each
  • Man City’s hauls are NOT consolidated, with Gundogan leading with 16%, KdB and Mahrez having 13.5% each. By contrast for Spurs, Son has 33% of the DDH while Kane has 22% so if Spurs get a DDH it is highly likely to be Kane or Son (not surprising)
  • United is even more consolidated with a whopping 37% of United’s DDH going to Bruno Fernandes –> Shaw, Rashford, Pogba and Martial all have 10% each so United’s hauls are quite heavily consolidated making them a great side to target for the end of the season or at any point this season
    • Further, 2 out of Shaw’s 3 hauls have come in the last 9 Gameweeks so this is a good time to get on him as he seems to have the momentum heading into the final leg of the season
  • Leicester’s hauls are also decently consolidated with Vardy, Maddison and Barnes accounting for 50% of their hauls (20% Vardy, 16% Maddison and 13% Barnes); important given Leicester’s favourable run-in and Vardy’s good form coinciding with Maddison’s return from injury
• Chelsea have 26 DDHs, 13 of those in the first 19 game weeks under Lampard and 13 more under Tuchel in the next 10 game weeks
  • During the last 10 Gameweeks, Chelsea’s 13 DDHs are second only to City (23), followed by United on 10
  • Chelsea also have the most defender hauls in the last 10 Gameweeks, with 6 vs. City’s 5 proving that Chelsea are very much the defence to back until the end of the season
    • Of the 6, Azpilicueta has 2, Rudiger has 1 and Alonso, Chilwell, Christensen have 1 each. This means the hauls are not consolidated, but Azpi seems the best bet given he gets the most starts followed by Rudiger
    • Mendy is a solid pick but won’t have a high ceiling – he has 0 DDH
• Aston Villa have had the biggest drop-off, topping the league with 14 DDHs in GW1-10, 9 in GW 11-20 but only 4 in GW 21-29
  • With harder fixtures now coming Villa’s way, it looks like it is time to get off the Villans on Wildcard or otherwise for the last leg of the season. They were impacted heavily in GW 21-29 by the Grealish and Cash injuries, it’s important to mention and it looks like both will be back but the drop-off is considerable regardless of that
• Man City, Spurs tend to have multiple players haul in the same game while United and Leicester are more spread out hauls with a lesser chance of multiple hauls in the same game
  • Man City have had 17 Gameweeks with DDHs, same as Man United and one more than Leicester but they have had 50% more DDHs than Man United and Leicester meaning a much higher likelihood of the hauls coming to multiple players in the same Gameweek (as evidenced by more thrashings and less consolidation of hauls for Man City vs. Man United and Leicester)
  • Spurs also have almost as many hauls as Leicester but in 3 fewer Gameweeks (13 vs. 16 for Leicester), meaning once again that Spurs have multiple players in the same team haul when they get DDHs though they get them slightly less often than City (17 Gameweeks), United (17 Gameweeks), Leicester (16 Gameweeks)
  • This has an important implication on double-ups and even triple-ups –> you would want to double-up on Spurs attack because if one gets a DDH, chances are another will as well because on average they get 2.1 DDHs per game week when they get a DDH
    • This also intuitively makes sense given how Kane and Son have been assisting each other all season –> so, with Spurs, the upside of having multiple attackers is terrific vs. a Man United where Bruno is likely to be the only hauler or even a Leicester (where Maddison, Vardy and Barnes don’t haul in the same Gameweek that often)
• Man City, Man United and Leicester lead the way on midfielder DDHs, while Chelsea, West Ham and Man City lead the way on defender DDHs
  • Man City account for 17% of the midfielder DDH, while Man United account for 10% and Bruno Fernandes alone accounts for 6%
  • Chelsea account for 11% of defender DDH, while Man City and West Ham account for 10% each
  • Leicester account for 14% of forward DDHs with 10% Vardy and 4% Iheanacho while Spurs account for 11% of forward DDHs (Kane) and Newcastle (YES!) and Leeds account for 9% each of forward DDHs (Bamford 7%, Wilson 7%, Rodrigo 2%, Joelinton 2% – YES, Joelinton has one haul)
  • This means having West Ham and Chelsea defenders, with City, United and Leicester mids (until City lose interest in the league and start rotating massively) and Leicester (Vardy + Ihenacho), Kane, potentially Bamford in the final Gameweeks seems to be the way to maximize hauls in the last leg of the season (also given the fixture run-ins for these clubs)

Marrying who gets the hauls with who gives up hauls, who has the best run-in / which players and teams should we target?

Mark and Az did an amazing job on BlackBox summarizing who gives up the most hauls so I’m not going to repeat anything on that. I’m going to combine some of what I have done with some of what they had to come up with my hypothesis on which sides have the best run-ins and which players we should accordingly target (especially for double and triple-ups)

• Who tends to give up multiple hauls in the same Gameweek the most?
  • Crystal Palace: given up 3 hauls in the same game 3 times, 2 hauls in the same game twice
  • Leeds: 3 hauls in the same game twice, 2 hauls in the same game twice
  • West Brom: 3 hauls 4 times, 2 hauls twice in the same game
  • Sheffield United: 3 hauls twice, 2 hauls 4 times
  • Southampton: 3 hauls once, 2 hauls 4 times
• Which teams have multiple players haul in the same Gameweek the most?
  • Spurs, City, Villa (start of season, dropped off now), West Ham, Leeds (feature in both lists – what an entertainer, Bielsa!), Arsenal (recently) are the sides that have multiple players haul most often in the same Gameweek
  • The intersection of these sides with the sides above is likely to produce the most multiple DDHs in the same game
• Now, let’s look at the ticker and adjust for other factors out of our control like the Leeds pitch and Europa League priorities for Arsenal (for instance) – summarizing my thoughts below
  • City play Leeds at home and Palace away (possibly after they have won the league, this one) –> City are relatively less attractive for DDHs in my view from now until the end of the season
  • Leicester play West Brom, Palace and Southampton back to back, so a Leicester forward and perhaps a Leicester mid as well are definitely worth considering – for me, despite Ihenacho’s recent form, Vardy’s consistency and Maddison’s consistency despite injury mean they are the prime two to target (also Leicester’s top two for DDHs this season)
  • Chelsea defence will continue to get hauls –> get Azpi, Rudiger and potentially a triple up with Mendy (in that order), with Azpi most likely to get DDHs given most starts likely for him
  • West Ham despite no hard fixtures don’t play one of the most favourable sides except for West Brom and Southampton right near the end of the season –> so it makes sense to have some West Ham and then heavily load up on them for those last two matches of the season because multiple DDHs are likely (I would recommend Cresswell, and two out of Antonio / Soucek / Lingard for the last 2-3 matches of the season)
  • Spurs play Sheff United and Leeds back to back –> must have multiple Spurs players for those games, DDHs highly likely (Kane and Son will always be the best picks, don’t bother with defenders – Spurs’ DDHs are 67% forward and midfielder led, and the defender hauls are completely spread out over 5 players whilst midfielder and forward hauls are very concentrated with Kane and Son)
  • Arsenal play Sheff United, West Brom and Palace but have Europa League commitments so tread carefully
    • Arsenal hauls are also extremely spread out so best to tread lightly –> Tierney for all the buzz has only one DDH away at West Brom, Lacazette seems to be the best bet with 3 DDHs and he might not start every Europa League game making him more likely to get league starts possibly. I would overall still say tread lightly / avoid
  • Leeds play Sheff United at home in GW30, but the pitch is a key consideration. Leeds also play Southampton and West Brom in the last two matches so perhaps important to keep a plan to jump back on multiple Leeds for those two games
    • Leeds hauls are also super interesting by position – maximum for the goalkeeper with 6, Bamford has 4 and Dallas has 3. Raphinha has just 1 DDH
    • Since Leeds give up so many shots, Meslier’s save points often help him cross the DDH mark easily but he’s also at the receiving end of many thrashings so best to get off him now with the difficult fixture run and jump back on for the last two matches if you own him
    • One cannot discount Raphinha despite just the one DDH – he has been dodging points all season, and was extremely unlucky not to get more DDHs over the last few Gameweeks especially so I would suggest him, Bamford and one of Dallas / Meslier are probably the best 3 to get for the last 3-4 matches of the season

Once again, I’d like to thank Mark and Az for triggering the thinking on this topic. It definitely inspired me to some very interesting findings that will help inform my FPL decision-making during the run-in. Hopefully, this will help some of you as well!

Happy Easter Hauls to everyone!