Pro Pundits - Tom

The FPL forwards I am considering for the last two Gameweeks of the season

With seven Gameweeks crammed in since the beginning of April, it’s been a challenging period for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers. But here we are, with just two rounds of fixtures to go.

For myself, I’m hoping for a strong finish that would cap off a testing season that saw me down at an overall rank of 271,064 in Gameweek 30.

However, since then, I’ve managed six consecutive green arrows, and head into the final stretch at 67,097.

So, with two Gameweeks to go, I need to carefully consider my options in an attempt to break the top 50k, which I’m 14 points off.

My initial plan, at least prior to Diogo Jota’s (£7.0m) injury, which has ruled him out for the remainder of the season, was to sell Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.2m) and bring in a new forward.

To scout potential recruits, I plugged in my ‘Hitman’ custom table, which focuses on a selection of statistics I like to look at when searching for goalscorers. In this particular example, I’ve included the top ten using data from the last six Gameweeks:

The idea behind using statistics to start my search is to filter players, and as a result focus on a smaller, more manageable group who I can then run the eye test over.

Having factored in, amongst other things, fixtures, rotation concerns, fitness and price (my budget is £6.9m), I removed Christian Benteke (£5.5m), Jamie Vardy (£10.2m), Matej Vydra (£4.8m), Callum Wilson (£6.5m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m) from my search, leaving three forwards to consider.

CHRIS WOOD

  • Price: £6.5m | Minutes played: 2561 | Goals: 12 | Assists: 3 | Bonus points: 16 | Total points: 134
  • GW37-38 fixtures: LIV | shu

Chris Wood (£6.5m) has been in superb form since the start of March, scoring eight goals and providing three assists in 10 matches. There have been goals against Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, West Ham United and Fulham, and of course his hat-trick at Wolverhampton Wanderers. 

That upturn in form has coincided with an increased attacking output from Sean Dyche’s side.

However, part of me does feel like I may have missed the boat with this one, and it’s hard to get too excited about his Gameweek 37 fixture against Liverpool, which means I’ll probably look elsewhere.

JOELINTON

  • Price: £5.7m | Minutes played: 1934 | Goals: 4 | Assists: 2 | Bonus points: 5 | Total points: 73
  • GW37-38 fixtures: SHU | ful

“I think he’s coming to terms with the language, the Premier League and to England. He’s far better than what he was and we know there’s a player in there – that’s for sure. I’m delighted he’s got a few goals now and looks a threat.” – Steve Bruce

Okay, hear me out.

We all know Joelinton (£5.7m) has struggled since he completed his £40m move from Bundesliga side Hoffenheim, but it’s worth noting he has been one of Newcastle United’s better performers since the beginning of March, and has now scored three goals in his last seven appearances, despite just five starts.

I also expect him to be on penalties, which does boost his potential.

However, regardless of my stance on Joelinton, do I trust the Magpies’?

It makes sense to focus on their performances from Gameweek 30 onwards, which is when Steve Bruce reverted to a back three formation.

Above: Newcastle United’s attacking record in the Premier League since Gameweek 30

Looking at the attacking data, it all looks reasonably encouraging ahead of games against relegated Sheffield United and Fulham. The return of Allan Saint-Maximin (£5.1m) and Wilson, at least for a period, has proved crucial, as did the decision to switch to a 3-5-2 and recall Matt Ritchie (£4.9m).

Despite this, you can never be sure which Newcastle will turn up. Remember Arsenal in Gameweek 34?

I’m probably not going there with Joelinton, but I’m not completely against the move, especially if you’re in need of a mini-league miracle.

MICHAIL ANTONIO

  • Price: £6.5m | Minutes played: 1814 | Goals: 9 | Assists: 5 | Bonus points: 16 | Total points: 107
  • GW37-38 fixtures: wba | SOU

Gameweek 34 saw the return of Michail Antonio (£6.5m) to West Ham’s attack, after recovering from a hamstring injury which forced him off against Wolverhampton Wanderers last month.

He responded with a quickfire double, but has since blanked against Everton and Brighton and Hove Albion. However, he ended Gameweek 36 with four goal attempts, one big chance and seven penalty box touches, which is encouraging.

It’s also worth noting that no forward with substantial game-time to their name has a better rate of expected goal involvement (xGI) per 90 minutes this season, and with games against West Bromwich Albion and Southampton to come, Antonio looks like my best option given his schedule and numbers over a longer period.


So, I now have two options to mull over before deadline.

I can either press ahead with my planned Iheanacho > Antonio transfer, and as a result bench Jota and bring Craig Dawson (£4.5m) into my starting XI, or I can focus on that problem area in midfield.

If I do choose the latter and sell Jota, I like Raphinha (£5.5m) as an option, despite looking a little off the pace on Saturday. 

Mason Greenwood (£7.2m) and Phil Foden (£6.1m) are other alternatives, but minutes are a concern here, knowing that they could be hauled off early given their team’s respective commitments in Europe.

However, another name at Newcastle has caught my eye, too.

JOE WILLOCK

  • Price: £4.7m | Minutes played: 1036 | Goals: 6 | Assists: 0 | Bonus points: 2 | Total points: 60
  • GW37-38 fixtures: SHU | ful

Joe Willock (£4.7m) is an intriguing differential, currently owned by just 1.0% of FPL managers.

Against Manchester City last time out, he scored his fifth goal in as many games, and looked a real threat running from deep. He’s generally been the most advanced of Newcastle’s midfield three, and with matches against Sheffield United and Fulham coming up, I see no reason why he can’t maintain his form moving forward.

Above: Midfielders sorted by expected goals (xG) since Gameweek 30.

His budget price tag would give me more flexibility with transfers in Gameweek 38, too.

GAMEWEEK 37

So, as attention turns to Tuesday’s deadline, here’s how I’m currently setup, with the captaincy, at least for now, on Harry Kane (£11.8m):

That may change to Mohamed Salah (£12.8m), but the fact Aston Villa conceded 23 shots to an average Crystal Palace side in Gameweek 36 is encouraging for owners of Kane, Son Heung-min (£9.7m) and Gareth Bale (£9.2m).

As it stands, I’m leaning towards a forward transfer (Iheanacho > Antonio), but will decide on that closer to deadline.

So, best of luck for the run-in everyone, and thanks for reading.

Pro Pundits 21

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615 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Mac90
    • 7 Years
    29 days, 8 hours ago

    Next 2.

    Son Willock

    Greenwood Harrison

    1. jason_ni
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      Sw for me.

  2. ryacoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    29 days, 8 hours ago

    Play one:
    A) Watkins (tot)
    B) Iheanacho (che)

    1. jason_ni
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      A

  3. Better Call Raul
    • 1 Year
    29 days, 8 hours ago

    Start Ings(LEE) or DCL(WOL)?

    Bit concerned after Ings went off on 58' last game

    1. Honourvolley
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      DCL

  4. jason_ni
    • 5 Years
    29 days, 8 hours ago

    This week's captaincy feels like one of the seasons toughest.

    On paper its bruno, but with nothing to play for and upcoming final, good chance he gets 60 mins at best.
    Salah and kane, pushing for gb, slightly tougher defences, but have recently been leaky.

    I've been switching over and over on who is best!

    1. Monster Muppets
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Bruno HATES rest.
        If anything he will rest 10-15 min in GW38

        1. jason_ni
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          This is true, but it doesn't take away that pool/salah and kane have more to personally play for. Suppose if bruno gets a brace he's right in the gb race.

          The early game is putting me off slightly!

        2. El Presidente
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          He's not playing 38

      • Eh, just one more thing ...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Madness to risk Bruno in 38

    2. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      Figured out getting in Greenwood exact money.

      Coufal+Foden to Mitchell+Greenwood

      47pts ahead in ML rivals don't have Foden and I had Coufal on bench anyway

      1. jason_ni
        • 5 Years
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        47 is a huge swing in 2 games, id be 97% sure you have it won!

    3. Cabra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      Son to Greenwood?
      Have Bale and Kane, no Bruno.

      1. ButterB
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Tempting, but there's always the risk Spurs go crazy this week V a dodgy back line with Villa and you have all three of the Spurs assets. You will probably be getting rid of Greenwood then the weekend ? I am bringing in Greenwood myself this week, but for Jota. Have Bale and Son, no Kane.

        For you, is there another midfielder that you could drop out for Greenwood ?

        1. Cabra
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Depends on Ole's comments. He has a history of planyng his players alot.

          Not without a hit unfortunatly.

          1. ButterB
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            Ole does that alright. Think with Martial and James back he will be wanting them involved in matches before the final in case they're needed, but as ya say it is Ole.
            As you have the two Spurs assets in Bale and Kane (and every move has a risk of the lad going out outscoring who you're bringing in) then bringing in a United midfielder makes a lot of sense for the fixture they have. Can always get rid in 38 if you feel Greenwood won't play for Willock or someone else, cheep options with good fixtures.

    4. Mac90
      • 7 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      Predict MU front 4 for next 2 fixture

      1. El Presidente
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Vs FUL
        Rashford, Cavani, Greenwood and Bruno

        Vs WOL
        VdBeek, James, Martial and Greenwood

      2. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        FUL: Greenwood, Bruno, Rashford, Cavani
        WOL: Diallo, Mata, James, Martial

    5. PP6
      • 2 Years
      29 days, 8 hours ago

      Any suggestions would be great 1FT .1 ITB Thanks.

      Martinez
      Azpi Trent Ayling
      Salah Siggy Mahrez Raphinha Mané
      Kane Bamford.

      Areola Rudiger Kelechi Burn.

      1. Mickellcameron
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Take out Mahrez abit risky may punt on greenwood?

      2. 2OLEgend
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Nacho first on bench and you're good to go

      3. Mickellcameron
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Any suggestions?
        Tempted to bring in Bruno and a cheap def like Alioski or Mitchell for Son and Dunk

        My team is

        Martinez
        Dallas Shaw Digne Dias
        Willock Raph Son Lingard Salah (c)
        Kane

        Sanchez (GK) - Richarlison Ineanacho and Dunk

        1. Mickellcameron
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Already used free transfer to bring in Willock *

      4. John Nerdelbaum
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Who do you prefer this week? Will probably ship Rashford for 38 if I get him
        Bench boosting so they will all be in action

        a) Shaw and Son
        b) Castagne and Rashford

        1. PP6
          • 2 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          A easily

          1. John Nerdelbaum
            • 8 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            Yeah that was my first thought. No Bruno though so a bit nervous with just Greenwood

            1. ButterB
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              29 days, 8 hours ago

              I think if you've one of Bruno or Greenwood this week you're good to go. As you probably won't want either of them for 38

              1. John Nerdelbaum
                • 8 Years
                29 days, 8 hours ago

                Will be bringing Greenwood in for Jota. No United as it stands

        2. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          A but I'd consider Dallas/TAA/Robbo instead if you don't already own, as I don't think Shaw will play 38

          1. John Nerdelbaum
            • 8 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            Cheers, got Dallas and TAA from those and would only be able to stretch to 6.1.
            Not the end of the world if Shaw does not play 38 as should have a decent bench

            1. ButterB
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              29 days, 8 hours ago

              Sorry didn't read that properly. (A )for me this week

              1. John Nerdelbaum
                • 8 Years
                29 days, 8 hours ago

                No worries, I didn't mention I would be getting Greenwood in

      5. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Current front 7: Salah, Son, Raph, Lingard; Nacho, Watkins, Kane (Jota bench)

        A) Watkins to Antonio
        B) Jota to 7.1 mid* (and bench Nacho)

        *Don't want Raph/Harrison double up, so thinking of keeping it simple with Pereira for that option

      6. focaccia
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        29 days, 8 hours ago

        Joint top of my mini league and would love some thoughts on my team. Am tempted to either roll my transfer or do Martinez > Ederson although a GK transfer at this stage of the season seems a tad boring!

        Martinez
        Dallas - TAA - AWB
        Salah (C) - Son - Lingard - Raphina
        Kane (v) - DCL - Bamford

        subs: Forster - Rudiger - Veltman - Jota

        1. ButterB
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Best option of points there. No Villa CS next two so maybe 4-6 points for Martinez Vs a hopeful 12 for Ederson

          Looks good to me. Could you do Jota to Greenwood or Willock this week instead and keep Martinez ? Could do better than the Ederson transfer

      7. FPL_Pugster
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          I have 1FT, don't really think rolling a transfer is worth it considering how much rotation GW38 will have.

          Martinez
          TAA, Digne ,Holding
          Salah(c), Son, Mahrez, Lingardinho
          DCL, Kane(v), Bamford

          Subs : McCarthy/ Gundo/ Elmo/ Veltman

          1) Mahrez > Greenwood (Free)
          2) Gundo/DCL/Veltman > Greenwood/Antonio/Phillips (-8)
          3) Roll the FT

        • Wee Jinky
          • 9 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          According to predicted line-ups, Greenwood will not start, thinking of bringing in Torres for Jota.

          1. Oggle22
            • 4 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            He's in every line up I've seen

            1. Reacher
              • 11 Years
              29 days, 8 hours ago

              Not in the scouts predicted team but still may start

          2. ryacoo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            IMO Pogba will play deeper and Greenwood will start with Bruno, Rashford and Cavani

        • And nothing else Mata'…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Zaha out for free for:

          A - Willock
          B - Greenwood
          C - none, save transfer
          D - someone else

        • ButterB
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Hi all,
          Any help appreciated.
          1 FT Rival has Antonio and Greenwood
          A Nacho to Antonio
          B Jota to Greenwood and drop Nacho to the bench

          Would do Greenwood to one of the Leeds lads or Willock for GW38 with the FT

          Pickford
          TAA Shaw Dallas

          Son Bale Salah JWP

          Watkins DCL Nacho

          Martinez Holding Jota* Veltman*

          1. Reacher
            • 11 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            Greenwood seen as rival has him

            1. ButterB
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              29 days, 8 hours ago

              Yes, that's the job. Feel it's the move I'd make regardless of who the rival has this week anyway..Added bonus of blocking.

              Nice one for the reply.

        • Reacher
          • 11 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Who to bench,

          A, Lingard

          B, Greenwood

          C, Reguillon

          1. wulfrunian
            • 4 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            C

            1. gengo
              • 9 Years
              29 days, 8 hours ago

              C

            2. ButterB
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              29 days, 8 hours ago

              A

        • wulfrunian
          • 4 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Zaha->Greenwood/Harrison(-4)?

          1. gengo
            • 9 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            Hold

        • gengo
          • 9 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Pick
          TAA Digne Dallas
          Son Foden Mo Lin
          Harry Bam DCL

          Sub: Button, Coufal, Mitchell, ESR

          Any tweaks/transfers needed fellas? 2nd and 14pts off 1st in my ML. He has Greenwood and Shaw but no Bruno currently

          1. Reacher
            • 11 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            you need to pray Foden starts and you could do with some United cover

        • manu4life99
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Bench 1

          A) Bamford
          B) Dallas

          1. ButterB
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            A

          2. ryacoo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            29 days, 8 hours ago

            B

        • LloristheHounds
          • 3 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          A) zaha to greenwood - 4
          B) ihenacho to Antonio -4
          C) start zaha

          Go

        • SuperG
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          29 days, 8 hours ago

          Got Kane and Salah. Was going to captain Kane today and Salah Sunday. Now a tad apprehensive what impact Kane leaving Spurs may have on selection/performance. Thoughts?

        • baggs
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          29 days, 7 hours ago

          Bench inacho or rudiger against each other ?

          1. Superninteno Chalmers
            • 3 Years
            29 days, 7 hours ago

            Bench rudi of those two

        • Ando My Son
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          29 days, 7 hours ago

          Who to start:
          A) ESR
          B) JWP

        • Jokesy87
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 7 hours ago

          Leno
          TAA Godfrey Coufal
          Harrison Greenwood Son Fernandes (c)
          Kane Antonio Watkins

          Sanchez, Lingard, Rudiger, Struijk

          A) G2G
          B) Advice on changes - chasing, so open to ANY suggestions!

        • Kabaranko
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          29 days, 5 hours ago

          Joelinton will be my mini league miracle

        • BusbySwede
          • 3 Years
          29 days, 4 hours ago

          Who to bench?
          A) Harrison
          B) Lingard
          C) Bamford
          D) DCL

        • DycheDycheBaby
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 3 hours ago

          Literally 0.1 from the 3 transfer choices I was considering, thanks to stupid price changes this week 🙁