Spot the Differential
27 August 2021 857 comments
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Gameweek 3 is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more Fantasy Premier League (FPL) differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Leeds United, West Ham United and Southampton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

FPL points predictions for Gameweek 3 and beyond 3

JACK HARRISON

  • FPL ownership: 3.6%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: bur | LIV | new | WHU | WAT

There were signs in midweek that Jack Harrison (£5.9m) is back to his best, as his late double fired Leeds United into the third round of the Carabao Cup.

His first effort, a lovely dink over the goalkeeper, was then followed by a thunderous drive into the corner, which served as a timely reminder of exactly what the former Manchester City man is capable of.

Overall, it was an exciting display by the 24-year-old as he attempts to get back to his 2020/21 level, when he weighed in with eight goals and provided 10 assists for Marcelo Bielsa’s side. Those performances ensured he finished as the sixth top-scoring midfielder in FPL, averaging 4.4 points per match, the same as team-mate Raphinha (£6.5m).

In the current season, it hasn’t quite happened for Harrison so far, though we have seen glimpses of his potential. Now, following his midweek brace, the expectation is that he can kick on as Leeds’ fixtures ease, particularly from Gameweeks 5 to 10. However, now might be a good time to act, with Burnley (a) up next, a fixture he thrived in last season with a 16-point FPL haul. It’s also worth noting that despite an Elland Road tie against Liverpool in Gameweek 4, Bielsa’s side have proven that they are capable of scoring against any opponent, which does suggest that he can be a set-and-forget pick right up until the beginning of November, possibly longer.

Encouragingly, throughout his time at the club, Harrison has improved year on year, and now having opened his account for the season, can build on that this coming weekend with a trip to Burnley. 

JARROD BOWEN

  • FPL ownership: 1.2%
  • Price: £6.4m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: CRY | sou | MUN | lee | BRE

Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Hull City in 2020.

In his first season in north London, the 24-year-old established himself as a regular starter and in 13 league appearances, scored one goal, provided four assists and played a significant role in the club securing their top-flight status. He then followed that up with a combined 14 goals and assists last term.

During the opening two rounds of 2021/22, he’s been unfortunate not to return, given his -1.12 expected goal involvement (xGI) delta. However, he’s certainly made an impact against both Leicester City and Newcastle United, as shown by his six created chances and eight successful crosses. Only Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) can beat that latter total, which does suggest that FPL points are on the way, especially with the likes of Tomas Soucek (£6.0m) and Craig Dawson (£5.0m) lurking in the box.

David Moyes’ side are currently top of the table with six points from their first two matches, and will now take on Crystal Palace and Southampton either side of the international break.

This weekend’s opponent, Palace, is particularly appealing. A heavy 3-0 loss at Chelsea on the opening day, followed by a goalless draw with Brentford and Tuesday’s loss to Watford in the second round of the Carabao Cup, means that the Eagles are yet to win or even score a goal under Patrick Vieira. 

Betting against Said Benrahma (£6.3m) would be a bold move right now, but that’s what this column is all about, and for those eyeing up an under-the-radar mid-price midfielder with bags of potential, Bowen is worth a look.

TINO LIVRAMENTO

 1
  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: new | WHU | mci | WOL | che

Southampton’s new signing Tino Livramento (£4.1m) is already proving himself in the top-flight after two impressive appearances.

The 18-year-old, who joined from Chelsea in a deal worth just £5m earlier in the transfer window, earned a surprise start in Gameweek 1 and then followed it up with a man-of-the-match display in Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United. 

Starting ahead of Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.9m), who was Saints’ first-choice right-back last season, Livramento’s six interceptions and three successful take-ons stood out, as did one storming run down the wing which almost produced an assist for Adam Armstrong (£6.0m).

It’s also worth noting that Ralph Hasenhüttl switched from his usual 4-2-2-2 formation to a back three at half-time, as Jan Bednarek (£4.5m) replaced Theo Walcott (£6.0m). That meant Livramento took on a wing-back role, though his attacking instincts were often curtailed by Luke Shaw (£5.5m) and Paul Pogba’s (£7.7m) forward runs.

Up next for Southampton is a trip to Newcastle United, who are on a three-game losing streak across all competitions and have only managed three home wins from their last 12 attempts in the Premier League.

Having won the Chelsea Academy Player of the Year award in 2021, following in the footsteps of Mason Mount (£7.5m), Reece James (£5.6m) and Billy Gilmour (£4.5m), Livramento has real potential, and with a bargain-bin price tag could be a nice differential pick-up for FPL managers.

857 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. The Final Boss
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    What an eventful window this has been?

    1. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      What Kane not moving and Ronaldo not moving.... yet

  2. unclesbasement
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Choose one for the next two gameweeks
    A)Bruno+Kane (no Salah)
    B)Salah+Kane(no bruno)
    C)Kane+Son
    D)Bruno+Salah

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      I'm going D

      1. THL33
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        B

    2. Warby84
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      B

    3. Stephen benge
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 2 days ago

      E) Son+Lukaku

  3. SKENG
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Play 1:

    A) Amartey (nor)
    B) Duffy (EVE)
    C) Ayling (bur)

    1. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Annoying one, Amartey and hope.

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      B

  4. enourouz
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Digne/Ings out

    Livramento/vardy in

    Vardy (c)

    Yes or no?

    1. luk46
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Nah, why would you do that?

      1. The Knights Template
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Great question

      2. enourouz
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Digne is so worthless. I’ve back him so many times over the last few years and he never comes through. Thought for sure this was the season with James leaving.

        Ings not having pens…his price tag is too high if he’s not on pens

  5. FPL Brains
    • Has Moderation Rights
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Ronaldo to Manchester United.

    You just can't make it up. What a transfer window.

    1. ☈☾
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Done deal?

      1. FPL Brains
        • Has Moderation Rights
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Nah not yet. Sounds serious. Just watched Ole's presser.

    2. Qaiss
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      They only want him because City are after him.

      1. FPL Brains
        • Has Moderation Rights
        5 years, 3 days ago

        We've wanted him back since the day he left.

    3. Wakanda
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      looks more likely honestly

  6. Bobby Digital
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Haven't seen Wolves this season. Are they defensively a unit or still trying to adjust?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Two of their defenders, Boly and the mosquito guy are due to be part of the squad this weekend. So once they're up to full strength, they could be decent, esp with those upcoming fixtures.

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Cheers!

  7. wildnothing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Off to a great start. What would you do here?

    Bachmann
    TAA Shaw Coufal
    Salah Bruno Benrahma Greenwood
    Antonio Ings Toney

    Foster Veltman Tsimikas Brownhill

    2 ft 0.5 itb. My target is DCL but I don't know how to do it.

    1. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Just do Ings to DCL next week....

  8. Rainer
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Glazers now happy to go in for a player who's 37 in February? They really do everything for their clubs fans.

    Great owners, who'll no doubt be unfairly blamed after the next loss.

    1. tokara
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      1) Cr7 sell shirts

      2) Martial cant score shitz

      3) Cavani playing for Uraguray

    2. FPL Brains
      • Has Moderation Rights
      5 years, 3 days ago

      If only Liverpool had any commercial nous eh.

      1. Qaiss
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        They don’t spend over 100m every year to try and win

  9. DRIZ ✅
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Ronaldo 7/4 Mancity Easy money

  10. Dynamic Duos
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Bringing in 2 players with a combined 11.5% tsb, differential heaven

    1. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      I thought i told you not to make those moves lol

  11. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Who you going with A)ntonio or B)runo for the armband?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      A

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Of the 2 , has to be Antonio

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      B

  12. Sandy Ravage
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    WC in GW 7 incoming.
    Double Chelsea defence looks tempting

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Only if they start

    2. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Yes. We should know who to target by then. Hopefully, James will be one.

    3. Sandy Ravage
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 2 days ago

      WC in GW5 looks better

  13. Gunners in Haaland
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Breaking: Man City are NOT signing Cristiano Ronaldo. They were offered him and the move wasn't ruled out this week, but it isn't happening.

    https://twitter.com/City_Xtra/status/1431247055629037568

    1. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Good decision from City. Long term...

  14. ☈☾
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Man City won't be signing Ronaldo

    https://twitter.com/sistoney67/status/1431246918991101962

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      cool, now Man Utd should announce the same.

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Yep n then he goes to Newcastle , called it lol

        1. Holmes
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 3 days ago

          😀

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      He's coming home.

      It's looking like a GW4 WC to get Ronaldo(C) against NEW.

      1. The Final Boss
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        For his second hatrick against the same team

    3. FPL Brains
      • Has Moderation Rights
      5 years, 3 days ago

      How reliable is that source?

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Good question. The problem is that MU doesn't need him atm with Cavani there too. But perhaps they could sell Lingard, Martial and James for him 😉

    4. The Final Boss
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Agent Bruno

    5. lilmessipran
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Legit source?

      1. Andy_Social
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Coulda had Messi and Ronaldo, but they went for Grealish.

  15. smix
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    A. Salah,Greenwood, DCL or
    B. Jota, Son, Lukaku

    Better option for next 3 games ?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      A

  16. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Why do most think Livramento is a better pick over Duffy?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Cause of Veltman

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        This

    2. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      this week? not sure why someone would think that.

      Long term? probably due to Veltman

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      I would assume more nailed, more potential (including OOP possibility). He's also very exciting to watch. However I agree in the shorter term Duffy still has the better fixtures, is just as attacking (headed attempts) & in a better defense.

      I would guess Livramento outscores him over the course of the season, so he's still a good long-term option,

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Very clear! Thank you

    4. FPL Pillars
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      I picked Duffy, better defence. Big goal threat. His place to lose

    5. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Cause of Sanchez

  17. Miguel Sanchez
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Ronaldo captain at home to Newcastle in GW4 then for United?

    1. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      TC!

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Really need him to come in at no more than 12.5m FWD to be able to do a simple Bruno to Ronaldo (-4)

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Doubt Utd wants him eighter

      1. Indpush
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Oops! 🙂

  18. Donny_Rover
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Current team for the weekend:

    Sanchez
    TAA Dias Shaw Ayling (Livremento)
    Salah Bruno Mahrez Benny (Brownhill)
    Antonio Ings (Obafemi)

    1FT and Mahrez will be on his way, but is it worth holding for one more week or transferring to Harrison? Plan next week (and I have just enough for this) would be to transfer DCL & Jimi in for Ings & Obafemi. Just can’t decide whether Mahrez is worth hanging onto for one last spin of the wheel.

  19. Warby84
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Sa (4m)
    Ayling James Reguilon Livramento Duffy
    Salah Raphinha Sarr Benrahma Bissouma
    Kane Lukaku Antonio

    Ready to go early on the attack

    But do I go?

    Lukaku and James

    Or

    Trent and Calvert-Lewin

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Lukaku and James
      Gray over Sarr

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      TAA and DCL is clear.

      I'd go Lukaku over Kane.

  20. OLLY G
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    "Manchester City have decided to LEAVE negotiations for Cristiano Ronaldo. He’s NOT joining Manchester City - club position has been so clear in the last minutes."

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      So clear. You can't even imagine.

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Ronaldo to Man City done deal then

  21. Stupendous
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Anyone else's Twatter not working or have I just been kicked off?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      even after you are logged in?

      1. Stupendous
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 3 days ago

        Yea. Weird

  22. The Mandalorian
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Mason Greenwood owners GW3 is your last game, CR7 is coming home.

  23. Oggle22
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Sanchez
    TAA Shaw Digne Coufal
    Salah Bruno Barnes Jota
    Ings DCL

    Forster Amartey Brownhill Obafemi

    Salah to Son?
    Want to use a ft as have two just can't see were

  24. Goonsquad245
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Bruno off pens and onto the bench then? How will he cope with not being the main man? National team vibes.

    1. THL33
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Hope so, I may take him out for Kane funds

  25. Parsnips
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Gtg?

    Amartey livramento Shaw Trent
    Son(c) Salah Bruno Benny
    DCL Antonio

    Foster Brownhill Balogun white

  26. The Final Boss
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    David moyes always has 'knocks'.

  27. THL33
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Tierney looks like he will drop in price, for 4.9 he must be considered when arsenals fixtures turn, assuming he can stay fit. Right?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      For sure, his assists and BPS magnetism will def be worth the extra 0.5 over White

    2. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Still a no from me, Arsenal and incredibly injury prone

  28. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Is Ronaldo heading back to Manchester United afterall and after Portugal International duty?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/27/cristiano-ronaldo-transfer-live-manchester-city-united-solskjaer/

  29. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 days ago

    Do you think that Barnes might get a rest?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      Why should he? Needs to continue building up match fitness

    2. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 3 days ago

      I think he'll just be dropped