Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

1,458 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. umerlfc
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Best Sanchez replacement?

    A) Ramsdale
    B) De Gea
    C) Sa
    D) Guaita

    1. HD7
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A or B for me

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      B

  2. Pukki Blinders
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    have Dalot. What GKs would you have on WC?

    A. DDG + Bachmann
    B. Ramsdale + Bachmann
    C. DDG + 3.9
    D. Ramsdale + 3.9

    1. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      D

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      C

  3. Devos
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Bench one:
    a) ESR
    b) Gallagher
    c) Wilson
    d) Dennis

    1. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      If you think ESR is out, Gallagher. Otherwise ESR.

  4. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    I think KDB Foden & Jesus will start on bench-Mahrez,Grealish & Sterling front 3.Rodri Bilva & Cancelo return

    1. TopBinFc
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Good call, but god knows

  5. Pompel
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Any hints from Rodgers on Vardy minutes ?

    1. Pompey5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Having missed most of the last game i would expect him to start

      1. Pompel
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        He played 90 minutes in Europe, no?

    2. CRAZY TRAIN
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Fellow owner and my hunch is he will start with Daka like he did at Villa last weekend.

      1. Pompel
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Fingers crossed!

  6. Kodap
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    If I do Sanchez > DDG, would this team be G2G this week?

    DDG
    TAA - Rudiger - James - Cancelo
    Salah - ESR - Bernado
    Antonio - Dennis - Broja

    Steele - Jota - Son - Lamptey

  7. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    A) Kane/Foden/B.johnson> CR7/Bilva/Dalot
    B) Kane/Davis/Reguilon > Cr7/Broja/Dalot

  8. TopBinFc
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Play with 9 players or take a hit of -8?

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Hit

  9. King H
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    is jota dead?

    1. Zimo
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      No he's Portuguese

    2. The Philosopher
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Nah, heart rate 72 per minute last I checked

      1. CRAZY TRAIN
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Hello, is there anybody in there?

        1. The Philosopher
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 6 months ago

          Just nod if you can hear me

          1. Silva’s Left Nut
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 6 months ago

            Is there anyone home?

            1. The Philosopher
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 6 months ago

              There is no pain you are receding

              1. CRAZY TRAIN
                • 14 Years
                4 years, 6 months ago

                a distant ship smoke on the horizon...

                1. Silva’s Left Nut
                  • 9 Years
                  4 years, 6 months ago

                  You are only coming through in waves

  10. Jontharon
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Son to Mount for -4, or play ESR(Livramento if ESR wont start)?

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Take the hit

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Changed my mind, play ESR

    2. Peter O'Hanraha-hanrah…
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      I'd play ESR

  11. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Is Ederson, DDG or Ramsdale the best goalkeeping pick?

  12. SIUUUUU
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Did an early-4 this week. First time I ever did an early transfer in the fear that I'd be priced out of a move. Injury/covid destroyed my team. Ended up using my free hit.

    Am I mad?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      That's not madness, stupidity perhaps.

      1. mojoindojo
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Siu

  13. tinear
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Sanchez
    TAA James Cancelo Livra
    Salah Bilva Gallagher Jota
    Antonio Dennis

    Foster Brownhill Kane Veltman
    0ft 0itb

    Which one of these?

    1. Kane Jota to Bowen/Mount and Ronaldo (-8)
    2. Jota to Bowen (-4, and 9 player on field)
    3. Kane Jota Foster to Ronaldo Bowen Ramsdale for -12 and field 11
    4. Jota to Bowen/Mount and play Livra
    5. WC
    6. Hold and play the above

  14. matiakez
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Play Livramento or take a -4 and do Reguillon to Dalat?

    1. chelseabrad
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Play Livra

  15. striiiker
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Sanchez*, Foster*

    TAA, Cancelo, James, Livra, Reguilon*

    Salah, Gallagher, Jota*, ESR*, Son*,

    Wilson, Hwang, Toney*

    What the hell do I do?! 2 FT and 0.6 ITB used my wildcard. Tricky situation, any advice appreciated.

    Thanks.

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Whoa. You've been hit bad.

      Honestly, in your predicament, I'd take the hits and get a team you're happy with for the Xmas period.

      -8 or -12 in your predicament is ok.

      1. Old Bull
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        This is good advice in these circumstances. It can be quite liberating when you accept you are going to lose points. In the past I’ve taken big hits, built a nice team for that GW and made a very respectable score.

      2. @persecuted_by_mods
        4 years, 6 months ago

        All he needs is a keeper and 1 other transfer will get him 11 players

    2. Jimmers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      9 of those will start (I'm including ESR). I'd lose one of Son and Toney and one of the keepers.

      1. @persecuted_by_mods
        4 years, 6 months ago

        This, seems worse than it is especially with 2 FT and ESR all but confirmed fit

    3. striiiker
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks all for the advice.

      I have been hit hard! I'm not sure, part of me wants to go big and make 4 changes but if I can get 11 out with two tranfers I guess that is the sensible thing to do.

      Decisions decisions!

  16. Rowley Birkin
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    I have Kane, Toney, Sanchez, Steele, Jota, Reguilon, Brandon Williams out. Smith Rowe is a doubt.

    Free hit time?

    1. Espanyolie
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      A bit of a shame to use it now as there will probably be blank gameweeks, but in you situation its maybe worth considering.

      A lot of people taking hits though.

      Would you be able to field 11 with a -8 ?

    2. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      You have still Kane, Toney and Reguillon in your team next week. FH now, -8 next week?

    3. Home Late From Age
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      seems so...

  17. The Final Boss
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Why Jota is orange flagged? Based on klopp comments it should be yellow right?

    1. The Philosopher
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Apparently Jota is allergic to yellow colour

    2. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      It should. Perhaps they know more than we do?!?

    3. putana
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      he hasnt trained at all. seems unlikely

    4. Rassi
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Sounds to me he is less than 75 % likely to play so orange better than yellow, imo.

  18. RobMcM1991
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Lads in serious need of HELP! What to do?

    Ramsdale
    Trent • Cancelo • Reguilon* • Livramento
    Salah • Raphina • Foden • Jota • Gallagher
    Kane*
    (Foster / Hwang / Amartey / Davis) 1FT 0.4ITB

  19. themaindanger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    I can't remember a more difficult week.

    I have the following:
    Son - not playing (Covid)
    Dier - not playing (Covid)
    Duffy - not playing (Covid at Spurs and suspended)
    Toney - not playing (Covid)
    Sanchez (GK)- not playing (Covid at Spurs)
    Foden - flagged
    Jota - flagged

    I've already done Toney to Ronaldo and Son to Fred as I have 2FT.
    I'm going without a GK this week as my backup is Foster.
    If Foden and Jota both play I will get 10 outfield players. However I was going to take a -4 to bring in Dalot for Dier, but I have heard that AWB might play now.

    WTF should I do????

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      What's the AWB rumour? I heard he got injured.

      1. themaindanger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        On the FFS Team news they said the injury is not as bad. He may be available.

    2. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Fred?!

      1. themaindanger
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 6 months ago

        I wanted Ronaldo (I'm captaining) and had to go with a cheap Mid. I know Fred is not a great option, but Man U. have great fixtures and he is playing more advanced.

  20. damiang2233
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on who to bench? Currently on the below

    Ramsdale
    TAA Dalot Cancelo
    Salah ESM Silva Bowen
    Dennis Antonio Vardy

    Sanchez Rudiger Bissouma (game off) Johnson (Injured)

    So basically should I play Rudiger for someone?

  21. winchester
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    hey lads GTG or anything worth a hit? cheers.

    ramsdale
    taa - cancelo - james - livra
    salah(C) - bernardo - jota
    antonio - dennis - hwang

    (foster - gilmour - reguilon - son)

    a) GTG
    b) jota -> bowen -4
    c) son -> mount/bowen? -4
    d) hwang -> watkins -4

  22. LIARS POKER
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    On WC, take Jota out for Mount/Gundogan or just bench and play Dalot? (already have Bernado)

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      If I was on WC I'd go for mount

  23. baines is god
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Ramsdale, Manquillo TAA Cancelo Salah C jota Raphina CHO Bernardo Jesus Antonio and no playing subs. 2.3 itb, should I do Duffy or Williams to James and bench CHO?

  24. TopBinFc
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Is Cancelo worth a -4 on 4 YC's, knowing my luck I'll buy him and he'll get booked and miss midweek

    1. putana
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      no

      1. TopBinFc
        4 years, 6 months ago

        Any other suggestions, need to buy someone as only have 9 players fit

  25. putana
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    mount or bowen? money no issue

    1. TopBinFc
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Mount all day

    2. bombonera
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Same dilemma - thinking Bowen to play it safe for starts

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Bowen - Chelsea have 7 players for 3 attacking mid places

    4. cravencottage
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 6 months ago

      Bowen- better fixtures and will always start

  26. Nightf0x
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Rams
    Taa can rudi regi (lampty)
    Jota esr son salah bsilva
    Denis (watkins locadia)

    Which. ?.

    A) regi son -4 to dalot rash/mount/bowen (gw17 jota-bowen gw18 locadia-antonio)
    B) jota son locadia -8 to ronaldo bowen 4.5 mid.
    C) jota son regi -8 to rash/mount bowen dalot

  27. HD7
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    On -4:
    A) Take another hit
    Cornet to Bowen/Gallagher

    B) Play Livra and hope Cornet is ok for Watford midweek

    Ramsdale
    Trent Rudi Cancelo James
    Saka Salah Bernardo Cornet*
    Antonio Ronaldo

    Steele Livra Sissoko Scarlett

  28. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Risk Jota with Sissoko (bre) first sub or sell Sissoko for Bowen for a hit?

    A) Sissoko (bre)
    B) Bowen (bur) -4

  29. chrislt4
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Pick one…

    A) Gundo & De Gea

    B) Mount & Ramsdale

  30. Tinfoil Deathstar
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 6 months ago

    Is Raphinha to Bowen worth a -4 this week? Raphinha will likely come in for Jota otherwise.

    Rest of team is fine bar Sanchez as GK but I'm not taking a hit to fix that.