Dare I say, it seems like we don’t need to play short-term Fantasy Premier League (FPL) anymore and can indulge in a bit of planning. Keeping this in mind and the announced schedule in front of us, I just want to highlight a few important things that are factors to consider in your decision-making in the mid-term. Let’s call this ‘food for thought’. I don’t intend on citing any chip strategy here but just want to point out a few things that are worth bringing to your attention. Let’s start with the obvious.
SALAH TRIPLE CAPTAIN IN GAMEWEEK 26
Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) in Gameweek 26, in my opinion, is the best Triple Captaincy option this season. Yes, the Gameweek 26 matches are jammed in between an important away Champions League tie against Inter Milan and the Carabao Cup final against Chelsea but they are two home games against a couple of teams that sit in the bottom five for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season. If you’re wondering about recent form, both teams rank in the bottom five for xGC in the last six matches, as well. Either game as a stand-alone fixture would be a great captaincy option and even if we get 120 minutes of Salah against such opposition, it is going to be more than enough for me.
While writing this article, I’ve just seen a tweet from the reliable Paul Joyce citing that the Egyptian will be back in training on Tuesday and wanting to play against Leicester in Gameweek 24. Just a crucial bit of information that I thought I’d throw in here.
BENCH BOOST IN GAMEWEEK 26
The one scenario where I wouldn’t use the Triple Captaincy chip in Gameweek 26 is if your team is set up for a Bench Boost. I mention that because a lot of FPL managers own Watford forwards, two playing ‘keepers and players from even the likes of Everton, who some Fantasy bosses plumped for in the recent (but cancelled) Double Gameweek. Just have a look yourself at how your squad is placed for Gameweek 26 and if it seems worthwhile, I’d be tempted to Bench Boost instead. Make sure you’re captaining Salah, irrespective. It’s worth noting that I would not spend transfers on my substitutes at the moment to get a ‘Bench Boostable’ squad in Gameweek 26, but instead focus my moves on the first team where I see more potential for points given the incoming Double Gameweeks.
FREE HIT IN GAMEWEEK 27
If you are going big on Arsenal and Liverpool for their good fixtures in Gameweek 26, there is a definite opportunity to Free Hit in Gameweek 27. The good thing about doubling or tripling up on Arsenal in Gameweek 26 is that they have a guaranteed fixture in Gameweek 30, which reduces the need for you to Free Hit at that point. It’s also worth noting that Arsenal have three other matches to be scheduled, which could be Double Gameweeks in 28 and 29. Two of their fixtures to be rearranged are against Chelsea and Liverpool, who are both in the FA Cup as well as the Champions League, which is why the Premier League might want to get them out of the way early. There are a ton of great value picks for the Gunners and they are a team you need to closely look at in the upcoming period, in my opinion, especially if you have two Free Hit chips and can get away with using one in Gameweek 27.
SPURS, PALACE AND VILLA PLAYERS
If you’ve already used one of your Free Hit chips, the team I like the most to target for your transfers is Tottenham Hotspur. They have a Double Gameweek 26 and more importantly, good fixtures before and after as well. Their underlying numbers since Antonio Conte has arrived have been really impressive. They sit top for expected goals (xG) in the last six games in the league and are fourth-best for xGC in this period, too. I really like the look of Cristian Romero (£4.8m), who was incredible against Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday and who looks tailor-made for bonus points given his all-action style. It’s worth citing that he does like a booking, however!
Spurs have been very impressive in attack as well and a rested Harry Kane (£12.3m) has already been racking up some strong underlying numbers, topping the league for big chances, shots, shots in the box, xG non-penalty and expected goal involvement (xGI) in the last six matches. His compatriot, Son Heung-min (£10.6m) is fit now and has also done really well under Conte, returning in every one of his last six starts. Given that Spurs have a good fixture in Gameweek 27 as well as a double in Gameweek 26, they are a team I’d definitely look at if I’ve already used one of my Free Hits (and otherwise as well).
Crystal Palace also fall in this category for me as they have a Double Gameweek 26 and good matches around it, including a fixture against Burnley at home in Gameweek 27.
One other team I like for the mid-term is Aston Villa, despite their current lack of a scheduled Double Gameweek, mainly because their fixtures look strong in the mid-term and they have definite matches in Blank Gameweeks 27 and 30 – so if you’ve used a few of your chips, they are a very handy purchase in my opinion.
Odsonne Edouard (£6.5m) has posted some encouraging underlying numbers of late, being ranked fifth for xGI in the last six matches, second for non-penalty xG and tied-first for big chances amongst all outfielders. Him along with Lucas Digne (£5.1m) are two players that I really like from these two teams. It is worth noting that Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m) and Jordan Ayew (£5.7m) are returning from AFCON for Crystal Palace and Michael Olise (£5.4m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.2m) have done pretty well, which means some competition for Edouard. I still like him as a pick irrespective but it’s worth citing the downside for the more risk-averse FPL managers.
That is it for me this week. My last bit of advice is that a little bit of planning in this part of the season goes a lot way and I do think that the current FPL climate is improving and we can afford to plan from now onwards in the season. Good luck this Gameweek!
