Gameweek 29 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.
This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Everton and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.
As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.
GABRIEL MARTINELLI
- FPL ownership: 2.8%
- Price: £5.3m
- GW29-33 fixtures: LEI + LIV | avl | cry | BHA | sou
Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) is back on the Fantasy radar after netting at Watford on Sunday.
Now, the cut-price midfielder presents an intriguing differential to Bukayo Saka (£6.6m), not least because his minutes-per-expected goal involvement (xGI) figure is better than all of the other Arsenal midfield regulars in 2021/22.
It’s also worth noting that Martinelli has an identical minutes-per-points average as Saka (15.7), which isn’t bad considering he costs £1.3m less, while his seven big chances from Gameweek 13 onwards is only bettered by Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) amongst team-mates.
Positional rival Emile Smith Rowe (£5.8m) will presumably be free from Covid-19 in time for the weekend, but Martinelli has started each of the last 11 Premier League matches he has been available for, producing four goals and two assists, which is encouraging for those backing the Brazilian winger to shine.
As for Arsenal, they have won their last four Premier League matches in a row, and now take on Leicester City (h) and Liverpool (h) in Gameweek 29, before facing Aston Villa (a), Crystal Palace (a) and Brighton and Hove Albion (h). In fact, their schedule right through until the end of the season is favourable, with two more as-yet-unannounced Double Gameweeks to fit in somewhere.
Martinelli offers a budget route into Arsenal’s attack for this double-header, and could be a useful differential in the coming weeks too.
DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN
- FPL ownership: 3.1%
- Price: £7.7m
- GW29-33 fixtures: WOL + NEW | – | whu | MUN | –
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) has struggled for form since returning from injury, but now faces back-to-back home matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle United in Double Gameweek 29.
Everton’s problematic away form continued at Tottenham Hotspur on Monday, but it is worth noting that their Goodison Park performances under Frank Lampard have generally been good.
The former Chelsea man oversaw a convincing 3-0 victory over Leeds United in his first Premier League home fixture last month, seven days after beginning his reign with a comprehensive Goodison FA Cup success (4-1) against Brentford. Events conspired against them versus Manchester City in Gameweek 27, but there were many positives to take from their display.
As for Calvert-Lewin, he started the 2021/22 campaign in good form, scoring in each of the opening three Gameweeks, but then early momentum was halted after an injury that saw him sidelined up until January. Since his return, the England international has failed to find the back of the net in his six appearances, but has racked up 12 shots in the box, two big chances and 1.99 expected goals (xG), all team-leading totals.
Given their position – they are currently one place and one point above the relegation zone – these two home matches are crucial for Everton, and if they are to get back on track, there is a decent chance Calvert-Lewin will be central to it.
LUIS DIAZ
- FPL ownership: 2.2%
- Price: £8.0m
- GW29-33 fixtures: bha + ars | – | WAT | mci | avl
Luis Diaz (£8.0m) has hit the ground running at Liverpool following his January move from Porto.
Since making his first Premier League start in Gameweek 24, the Colombian winger has racked up 17 goal attempts, 11 shots in the box, five efforts on target, two big chances and 37 penalty area touches. He has also created nine chances, whilst amongst all team-mates, only Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) has received more passes in the final third.
At this stage, we should emphasise the rotation risk associated with the player. With Roberto Firmino (£8.7m) nearing a return to action, it’s at least five players competing for three spots in attack, perhaps leaving the likes of Diaz and Diogo Jota (£8.3m), maybe even premium option Sadio Mane (£11.7m), open to a spot of rotation. However, Diaz’s ability on the pitch has been clear for all to see, and if he were to get 120-ish minutes across the two matches, that could be enough for him to haul.
Liverpool return to Premier League action in Double Gameweek 29 when they visit Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal, as they aim to keep the pressure on table-toppers Manchester City. That’s followed by a Gameweek 30 blank, although they do have an appealing Anfield encounter against Watford to follow. For those looking further ahead, the Reds will also have another Double Gameweek to come between now and the end of the season.
Adding Diaz to Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) and Salah – both of whom are locked into most Fantasy sides – is an appealing move this week, and could pay off given Liverpool’s attacking firepower.
