Leicester hit over 60 goals for the third season in a row under Brendan Rodgers, despite the UEFA Europa League/Conference League sideshow and myriad injury issues.
The underlying stats aren’t as impressive, with the Foxes ranked 15th for both goal attempts and shots in the box.
While the overall shot count was way down on those of many other teams, Leicester did carve out quality opportunities with the attacks they had.
Rodgers’ troops were fourth in the Premier League for big chances per shot (16.78%).
Despite the respectable rate of big chances, Leicester still had to spectacularly ‘overachieve’ on the expected goals (xG, above) front to hit the 60-goal mark.
No club came close to matching their whopping xG delta of +9.15.
But if you think that’s unsustainable, the gap between xG and actual goals was even more extreme (+11.86) in 2020/21.
Jamie Vardy (£9.5m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) were a massive part of last season’s overachievement: one’s a clinical finisher from close range, the other possesses a dead eye from distance.
Vardy and Maddison’s combined xG deltas were +7.92, accounting for a big chunk of the overall Foxes figure.
LAST SEASON: DEFENCE
Total
Rank v other Premier League clubs*
Goals conceded
59
14th
Clean sheets
7
17th
Shots conceded
565
17th
Shots in the box conceded
392
=18th
Shots on target conceded
192
18th
Big chances conceded
88
16th
Expected goals conceded (xGC)
70.77
17th
Far less impressive were Leicester’s defensive numbers, which are more relegation candidate material than top-eight challenger.
Ranked in the bottom four for the concession of shots, efforts on target, attempts in the box and expected goals (xGC), they were also 17th for clean sheets with a miserable seven.
It could even have been worse: Opta’s xGC data estimated that the Foxes should have shipped over 70 goals, rather than the 59 that actually flew in.
Set plays were a real Achilles heel, as no club allowed more chances from free-kicks and corners (176) or had a worse xGC from dead-ball situations (20.0).
Leicester had rotten luck with injuries last season, with not one of what could feasibly be described as their first-choice back four – Jonny Evans, Ricardo Pereira, James Justin and Wesley Fofana (all £4.5m) – starting more than 16 league games.
Midfield shield Wilfried Ndidi (£5.0m) didn’t fare much better, only making the starting XI on 18 occasions.
Not once was Rodgers able to name those five players in the same team in 2021/22.
The Castagne-Fofana-Evans-Justin back four was in place on just three occasions last season, all of them without Ndidi, with Leicester conceding exactly one goal in each fixture.
OPENING FIXTURES
The opening fixtures aren’t great, with four ‘big six’ sides to come in the first eight Gameweeks.
That sees the Foxes rank a lowly 17th on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty.
A Brentford side missing arguably both their first-choice centre-halves and a Southampton outfit that the Foxes scored six goals against last season could be favourable opponents in Gameweeks 1 and 3, however.
The time to pounce would seem to be Gameweeks 9-16, the start of which is immediately after the September international break.
Rodgers’ side rise to second in our Season Ticker for that string of games, with two newly promoted sides and Leeds, Wolves and Everton among the opponents to come.
PREDICTED GAMEWEEK 1 LINE-UP
Pereira’s injury should make the back four easy to predict, if it is indeed a back four: Justin could alternatively play as a third centre-half, with Luke Thomas (£4.5m) or Marc Albrighton (£5.0m) fielded at wing-back.
Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) was traditionally a secure starter for the Foxes but with the Belgian supposedly wanting to depart the club, he’s not been all that prominent in the pre-season line-ups.
I’ve moved away from having a 4.5 defender slot, but it was between Dalot and Jonny. I’m not getting why most are favouring Ait-Nouri to be honest, he seems a little less nailed and Jonny’s a more proven FPL asset
I personally would go Jonny too. He appears to be more likely to keep his place when Semedo returns from injury and seems to have a bigger goal threat.
I guess this just shows how highly people rate the fpl Royalty of Harold. Pretty certain these figures will change drastically once Haaland starts breaking the net on regular occasions.
In my very first season 2009/10 I played without both Man Utd and Chelsea as I don’t like either club tbh. I remember Rooney going mental in a dgw that year and that was that….fpl gives you no morals what so ever 😆 Utd and Che assets all over my team the next season 😛
B for me, Kane is a slow FPL starter and Haaland stats V Liverpool were decent... (Plus early WC safety net with the free WC during the World Cup this year!)...
I guess the argument would come from only being able to choose 2 from Salah, Darwin, Robbo and TAA if you already have Ali in... maybe that's where the thinking comes from?
I felt the same way but struggling to fit in City backline cover other than Walker and I'm just not much of a fan... the guy offers zero threat going forward, hence why I was playing with the option of Ali in goals to get Cancelo in.
I quite like Leeds fixtures and think an attacker might be a good shout. He’s probably the cheapest of the viable Leeds options. Not a fan of Wolves attackers.
Just watched the best 5 mil mid pod from the guys at Planet Fpl and Docherty looks a much better option than most are giving credit for…..but out of those Trippier ➡ Gab ➡ Cash
I think no Salah is extremely high risk, high reward. I wouldn't be able to relax knowing I don't have a single midfield premium.
Salah (c) on a good day would take several players to beat. For the money you have to spread with that line-up I think you should be able to afford decent forward cover.
From Conte comments seems match fitness may not quite be there but only way he gets that is starts - I think he's safer to start then Doherty. I think while it's one game a week Perisic is pretty safe but when it's 2 per week may need to reconsider but even then if he gets 60+ and then subbed that's no bad thing for a def which could well be the case.
Watched the highlights vs Roma though and had to squeeze him in.
Wavering re: keepers but currently Sanchez / Ward but hopefully starting Ward gw1 and maybe gw3.
Patterson is just until Coleman returns though - Neco is nailed unless he does something very wrong or breaks!
Been in my team for weeks. He’s had a great pre season too and “dazzled” in the last game. Good fixtures and easy swap should it not work out. I love a GW1 punt and was on Michu all those years ago, so I do have some form. 🙂
