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Here, Burning Questions co-host Pras reveals who he is picking on his Gameweek 9 Wildcard.
It has been a strange few weeks, with the postponed Gameweek 7 followed by Blank Gameweek 8. It certainly changed the template, as some were forced to use a Wildcard and others like me chose to ‘dead end’ into Gameweek 8.
Having only scored 51 points in the last round of matches, that decision has not yet paid off. But I am hoping that the subtle but important differences in Wildcards – such as owing Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) alongside Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m), Reece James (£6.0m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) – will help me claw back some of the deficit.
So let’s get straight to the main talking points of my draft.
Picks that I consider locks
There are a few picks that are locked in for me and feel self-explanatory. Under Graham Potter, Chelsea’s James now looks more assured to start in the right wing-back role.
Maddison, Zaha and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) also have a sea of blue fixtures below and I want a share in all of it.
Regardless of their Gameweek 12 blank, Joao Cancelo (£7.2m) and Erling Haaland (£12.1m) are two of the best picks around, so they will stay in the team and sit on the bench when the time comes.
In defence, I really like the look of Kieran Trippier (£5.4m) for the Brentford and Everton fixtures. He could easily get some attacking returns given his set-piece duties, even during the defensively trickier trips to Fulham and Manchester United.
Finally, for budget enablers, Marc Guehi (£4.3m) with those Crystal Palace fixtures and Andreas Pereira (£4.6m) are the perfect first and second substitutes who can step in for their decent Gameweek 12 fixtures against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United.
Picks that I consider logical
Let’s come back to Salah and Alexander-Arnold. One is 35.2% owned, the other is 36.1%. Throughout the last four seasons, nobody has ever had to spend time justifying why these two are good picks, yet here we are.
First up, Salah. Yes, there is talk of him playing wider and Liverpool having poor form in general but what I see is an expected goal involvement per 90 (xGI/90) of 0.68, which is lower than last year’s crazy high of 0.86 but remains in line with 2019/20 and 2018/19 scores of 0.63 and 0.74 respectively.
This is despite not playing a lot with Thiago (£5.2m), so his return should benefit these numbers. Moreover, I see Salah as the top captaincy choice in two of the next four Gameweeks, which is why I’ll keep him for the trickier Arsenal and Manchester City fixtures.
Alexander-Arnold remains the defender with one of the best xGI/90 rates – Pervis Estupinan (£4.5m) and Ivan Perisic (£5.6m) have higher but are also rotation risks – so this aspect of his game hasn’t changed.
What has been worrying is Liverpool’s lack of clean sheets. They are at a non-penalty expected goals conceded per 90 (NPxGC/90) rate of 1.01 which, while fifth-best, isn’t at the exceptional levels of before.
My hope is that this soon turns around, especially for the favourable run from Gameweeks 12 to 16 where they face West Ham United (H), Nottingham Forest (a), Leeds (H), Tottenham Hotspur (a) and Southampton (H).
Picks I am unsure of:
Goalkeepers
A much talked about topic over the international break. Is Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) nailed? How many clean sheets will Nick Pope (£5.2m) keep? Does doubling-up on Chelsea or Liverpool’s back line take up crucial slots on their teams? Alternatively, can we go with Leicester City duo Danny Ward (£4.0m) and Daniel Iversen (£3.9m)?
Well, the answer to the last question is no. I also think there needs to be some flexibility for a third Liverpool or Chelsea slot – the likes of Luis Diaz (£8.2m), Darwin Nunez (£8.9m), Raheem Sterling (£10.0m) or Mason Mount (£7.6m).
Therefore, I have settled upon a £4.5m and £4.0m keeper combo, either Guaita and Ward or Everton’s Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) and Asmir Begovic (£4.0m). If nailed, I see Guaita having higher points potential but Pickford seems safer.
In today’s press conference, Brendan Rodgers said on Ward:
“When you concede the goals we have, the spotlight will be on him. But defending is a collective. I support Danny, I know his qualities and I know he’ll find a more consistent and better level.”
This makes me lean closer towards the Guaita and Ward duo, as there is some assurance that the latter can come in.
Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m) plus the third forward spot
Let me say this upfront: of all the options I am considering, Martinelli is the best by far. The issue is that he has a blank coming up and I want to be selective about the players I bench. There will already be Haaland and Cancelo there, so Martinelli would force a third and he also has Spurs and Liverpool beforehand.
So I can either have Martinelli and Sam Greenwood (£4.3m), giving me four non-players in Gameweek 12, go with the Leon Bailey (£4.7m) and Dominic Solanke (£5.7m) duo, or go with Harvey Barnes (£6.9m) instead of the Arsenal man.
I am leaning towards the latter, simply because Barnes is an easier return route to Martinelli who I will almost certainly want from Gameweek 13. He’d be risky, as Leicester could soon shift to a back five, but I think we’re allowed one Wildcard punt.
Additionally, I think Solanke is a fine pick and couldn’t have handpicked a better run of opponents than Brentford, Leicester, Fulham and Southampton.
My draft and future plans
The idea is to transition back towards the good teams from Gameweek 13 onwards. Therefore, I plan to move the two Leicester midfielders to Martinelli and an £8m option like Diaz, Bukayo Saka (£7.8m) or Phil Foden (£8.0m).
I could also move Trippier to someone slightly cheaper, such as Perisic, Gabriel (£5.1m), Aymeric Laporte (£5.8m) or Kyle Walker (£5.0m). This would give me numerous Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal assets to complement Zaha and Mitrovic.
Lastly, I am also not opposed to switching Salah towards Son Heung-min (£11.7m) for Gameweeks 10 and 11 if no other moves appeal next week.
Good luck!
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