FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 10: GOALSCORER ODDS
Starting off with the goalscorer odds and we won’t dwell on this segment for long because it’s Erling Haaland (£12.2m) with perhaps the biggest lead we’ve ever seen, with the bookies giving him a 63% chance of finding the net. The Norwegian has plundered 14 goals and three assists in his opening eight games, which represents his best-ever start to a season.
Callum Wilson (£7.2m) sits in second and perhaps he’s a player we’re overlooking, given that he’s just 1.2% owned despite scoring three goals in four appearances. The risk with Wilson, of course, is that he’s historically extremely injury prone: he’s missed four matches already this season before returning in Gameweek 9. He knows how to find the back of the net and it’s a case of timing it right if you do get him.
Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang (£9.0m) scored on his league debut for Chelsea and again in the Champions League in midweek, and this week is third with a 37% chance of scoring any time. The Blues are at home to Wolves, who play their first match following Bruno Lage’s sacking.
A note on Cristiano Ronaldo (£10.2m) in fourth: the bookies’ odds always assume that the player starts and in the veteran’s case, you’d be surprised.
After his hat-trick last Gameweek, Phil Foden (£8.1m) has a 34% chance of scoring against Southampton. Kevin De Bruyne (£12.4m) is close behind on 32.5%. As tempting as it might be, Foden is perhaps not a sensible transfer in due to his blank in Gameweek 12, unless you have the Wildcard still intact or enough transfers to spend shuffling your players around.
Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) was on the scoresheet in midweek in the UEFA Champions League, albeit from the penalty spot. He and Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) are tied in the goalscorer odds (31.5%) and face one another on Sunday.
GAMEWEEK 10: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Onto the clean sheet odds and Chelsea and Manchester City are tied with a 51.5% chance of a shut-out. Reece James (£6.0m) hasn’t hit the same heights of last season yet and as it stands, he’s 15th among defenders for points. Chelsea not keeping a clean sheet in their last six games hasn’t helped, of course. James really needs to start returning imminently over these kinder fixtures or questions need to be asked as to whether he’s worth it. There were potentially good omens on Wednesday night, at least, when James registered a shut-out and two attacking returns in the Blues’ 3-0 win over AC Milan.
Plenty of managers doubled or even tripled up on the Newcastle defence and this week they’ve been given a 36% chance of shutting Brentford out. At home, Newcastle have an expected goal conceded (xGC) every 93.5 minutes: only City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs have fared better.
Palace’s favourable fixture run begins in Gameweek 10 and this week, they have a 36% chance of a clean sheet. They have some potential bargains in defense, including Vicente Guaita (£4.5m) and Marc Guehi (£4.3m). These are the sort of cheap assets that you’d be happy to start or sit first on your bench.
It was a long road but after eight matches and 22 goals conceded, Danny Ward (£4.1m) at last kept his first clean sheet of the season in Gameweek 9. There was some doubt over the international break as to whether Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) would get a chance but it’s clear now that Ward is first choice for the time being. In Gameweek 10, the Foxes have a 31.5% chance of a clean sheet on the road to Bournemouth. The Cherries sit comfortably rock bottom for expected goals (xG) this season (3.65); the next worst is actually Crystal Palace on 7.48, just over double Bournemouth’s xG tally. Those are discouraging numbers for those who have picked up Dominic Solanke (£5.7m) in recent weeks.
Arsenal have been really impressive thus far this campaign and are home again off the back of a win in the north London derby. It’s fascinatingly poised and Liverpool look there for the taking after conceding three goals themselves to Brighton.
Rock bottom this Gameweek for clean sheet odds is, unsurprisingly, Southampton, who make the trip up north to the Etihad. Managerless Wolves, away at Chelsea, have a mere 14.5% chance of a shut-out.
GAMEWEEK 10: MOST TRANSFERS IN
Onto the most transferred players and Leandro Trossard (£6.7m) is top, with just under 600,000 managers picking the Belgian up off the back of his hat-trick. On paper, it’s another tough fixture for Brighton – but Gameweek 10 opponents Spurs haven’t kept a clean sheet since Gameweek 4.
The next most popular transfer is also a hat-trick hero, Phil Foden, with almost 330,000 picking the City midfielder up. It’s perhaps not the time to be buying Arsenal and City players, barring Haaland, if there’s anyone out there who still doesn’t own him. It’s a very short-term play and realistically only worth considering if you’ve got two free transfers already or have a Wildcard to use for Gameweek 12.
William Saliba (£5.0m) is another player among the top transfers in who doesn’t have a great short-term outlook, as it’s Liverpool, Leeds and then a blank. Gameweek 13 looks primed to pile in on Arsenal and City assets again with favourable fixtures up until the World Cup.
Is Miguel Almiron (£5.1m) a player we’re overlooking? He’s a bargain asset with home fixtures to Brentford, Everton and Villa in his next five matches, and is cheap enough to bench. He has 37 points this season, one less than Son Heung-min (£11.7m) for less than half the price. His 3.43 expected goal involvements (xGI) ranks eighth among all midfielders.
GAMEWEEK 10: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
As for the most transferred out players, top is Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) with over 450,000 sales. We’ve come a long way from complaining about how underpriced he was at the start of 2022/23 and he’s even dropped again since this above graphic was made.
Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) is the second-most sold after being withdrawn injured in Gameweek 9. We await to find out how serious the injury is: if it’s a one-week absence, for example, then you can easily make the case for holding given Fulham’s good fixtures beyond Gameweek 10.
Mohamed Salah certainly hasn’t justified his hefty price tag so far but him and Alexander-Arnold are two players that we shouldn’t rule out of our thinking once Gameweek 12 rolls around, with West Ham at home followed by Forest away.
Ivan Toney (£7.3m) is another surprise name among the most-sold players but don’t give up on him just yet after two blanks. He blanked against Everton and Crystal Palace not long ago before following up with a hat-trick, and he’s one player still fighting for a spot in Gareth Southgate’s England squad.
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