Our latest Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goal (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show, asking if their recent output is sustainable.
The idea is to revisit these tables at regular intervals throughout the season, in an attempt to identify any recurring patterns and trends.
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TEAMS
First up, let’s take a look at the recent xG data over the last six matches.
It’s worth remembering, though, in the cases of Brighton and Hove Albion and Chelsea, that both teams have only played five matches under Roberto De Zerbi and Graham Potter respectively.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa, meanwhile, remain managerless. The latter, however, will have Unai Emery installed in time for Gameweek 15.
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
Not surprisingly, Manchester City are top for xG in the last six matches. Pep Guardiola’s side have racked up in excess of 2.0 xG against Southampton (2.47), Manchester United (3.30) and Aston Villa (2.10), while only Liverpool (0.98) have been able to keep their tally under 1 xG.
Newcastle United and West Ham United sit just below the champions, which may raise a few eyebrows.
However, if we break Newcastle’s figures down match-by-match (see below), we can see 3.55 of their 10.57 xG total was accumulated in one match at Fulham, when the hosts were reduced to 10 men inside the first 10 minutes. Still, it’s safe to say The Magpies are moving in the right direction again under Eddie Howe.
NEWCASTLE XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW8 (BOU) | GW9 (ful) | GW10 (BRE) | GW11 (mun) | GW12 (EVE) | GW13 (tot) | Total | |
| Newcastle | 1.92 | 3.55 | 1.53 | 0.91 | 1.46 | 1.21 | 10.57 |
Whereas Newcastle have overachieved their xG figure by +2.43, West Ham have underperformed in front of goal, scoring eight goals from 10.42 xG. It’s also worth noting The Hammers have faced an easier set of opponents in that six-match run: Bournemouth (h), Liverpool (a), Southampton (a), Fulham (h), Wolves (h) and Everton (a).
Despite some iffy form, Liverpool have maintained their status as a top-four attack, they have simply failed to put away a lot of their chances (-3.25 xG delta), the same of which can be said for Aston Villa (-3.68). The Villans’ fixture against Chelsea in Gameweek 11 stands out, when Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.5m) made a number of brilliant saves, the most notable being from close range to deny Danny Ings (£6.6m).
Brentford have been surprisingly flat, too, failing to score in four of their last six matches.
Elsewhere, Leicester City have been particularly clinical (+6.11), while Wolves just can’t seem to put the ball in the net, summed up best by Diego Costa (£5.5m): the 34-year-old has amassed 12 shots inside the box and three big chances since making his debut without scoring.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
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