Over 600,000 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers have already sold Ivan Toney (£7.4m) after he picked up his fifth yellow card of the season at the weekend.
The Brentford forward is now banned for Gameweek 15, returning to face Manchester City before we break for the winter World Cup.
As a result, Toney looks an easy sell, but who are the best sub-£8.5m replacements in FPL?
We’ll highlight three of our favourites below, plus a riskier fourth pick who is still worth considering.
CALLUM WILSON
Callum Wilson’s (£7.4m) goals since returning from injury earlier this month have helped power Newcastle United into the top four. Two goals and two assists arrived in the 4-0 win over Aston Villa on Saturday, taking his tally to seven attacking returns in his last six matches. In that time, Wilson is top among forwards for expected goals (xG), even if you remove penalties.
Above: Forwards sorted by xG (last six matches)
The Magpies, meanwhile, are bang in form, having claimed 62 points from 32 league games this calendar year – behind only Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal.
With Alexander-Isak (£6.7m) out until after the World Cup, Wilson looks set to continue as Eddie Howe’s lone striker for Newcastle’s next two matches before the World Cup, against Southampton and Chelsea. They rank 16th and 11th respectively for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last six matches.
Wilson has always been a good FPL asset when fit, and with the World Cup looming ever closer and English players looking to book their ticket on the plane, is one of the top forward targets.
DOMINIC SOLANKE
After enjoying a six-game unbeaten run under Gary O’Neil, Bournemouth have now lost three in a row. Dominic Solanke (£5.7m) has blanked in each of those defeats, yet prior to that, had been directly involved in six goals (two goals, four assists) in five league appearances.
For Solanke, his price is the main attraction, especially for those FPL managers wanting to push more funds into midfield. That’s because his underlying attacking numbers under O’Neil have been so-so. Indeed, he has mustered just 12 shots inside the box from Gameweek 5 onwards – 13 other forwards have managed more.
As for The Cherries, they have the lowest minutes per-xG tally in the division under O’Neil, so expectations should be realistic. However, to counter that, their next two opponents – Leeds United and Everton – rank 13th and 18th for xGC in the last six matches, so Solanke could still get some joy whilst potentially enabling a pricier purchase somewhere else in your team.
DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) scored his first goal of the season in Gameweek 13, as Everton recorded a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace. Encouragingly, he then completed 90 minutes for the first time this season at Fulham on Saturday evening, despite blanking.
The issue for Everton and Calvert-Lewin is that Gameweek 13 aside, they haven’t been about free-flowing, attacking football this season. In fact, they rank 16th for minutes-per xG in 2022/23. Calvert-Lewin, meanwhile, has been restricted to just four shots since returning from injury, but they were at least from decent shooting locations.
Above: Calvert-Lewin’s xG shot map in 2022/23
Everton’s next two fixtures appeal, even if Leicester City and Bournemouth aren’t quite as favourable as they were at the beginning of the season. They rank 8th and 17th respectively for xGC in the last six matches.
If Everton can provide the sort of crosses Calvert-Lewin thrives on, he could be a decent under-the-radar pick for the next two weeks.
GABRIEL JESUS
Firstly, Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) has already accumulated four yellow cards. That means a fifth booking in Gameweek 15 would mean he misses the final round of matches before the World Cup.
As a result, this move carries a bit more risk than others, yet it might still be worth it if you have a decent sub who – worst-case scenario – could potentially sub in Gameweek 16.
Against Nottingham Forest, the only thing missing from Arsenal’s 5-0 win was a goal for Jesus, who has now failed to score in each of his last four league games. Still, he’s created three goals in that time, and his underlying numbers have remained good. Indeed, he ranks fifth among forwards for shots inside the box and joint-second for big chances in that period, suggesting a goal is on the horizon.
For Arsenal, they face Chelsea and Wolverhampton Wanderers next, who rank 11th and 10th respectively for xGC in the last six matches. However, they arguably have the best attack of those teams discussed here, boosting Jesus’ potential.
