Throughout the 2022/23 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season, our team of Pro Pundits, Hall of Famers and guest contributors will be sharing their thoughts, tips and own transfer plans.
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Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser speaks about Brighton and Hove Albion, World Cup fatigue and how to select defenders.
The opening half of our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season is almost done. Enough people have covered short-term punts, so I’m just going to talk about some specific things that I find interesting.
PICK DEFENDERS BASED ON TEAM OR OPPONENT?
Firstly, the scenario where you are faced with having to play either:
A) A good player from a good team (such as Ben White (£4.6m)) but against a top-six opponent
B) An attacking defender from a poor team, versus poor opposition (like Neco Williams (£4.1m) or Nathan Patterson (£4.0m)).
More often than not, player A wins. We’re faced with such a dilemma on many occasions and you just have to trust the better defence irrespective of the opposition. Quality, premium defences win out more often than not.
This is very subjective because if you look at the current situation at Chelsea – a usually elite defence having a bad period – they do not currently qualify for player A. The good defence needs to have all main personnel fit for scenario A to win out, which we FPL managers will be aware of.
This was very nicely displayed by @FPLGromit in these charts, plotting expected goals against (xGA) relative to the strength of opposition. It is worth noting that this is for the 2021-22 season.
Manchester City and Liverpool were the standout defences of last campaign (with Liverpool probably replaced by Arsenal and Newcastle United this time) but – even against more difficult opposition – their xGA was often less than the likes of Everton produced against weaker opponents.
It is also worth noting that the mindset of these lower teams, when facing each other, is to ‘go for it’ and this league seems to be losing low-block managers in favour of more modern ones with an attacking mindset that will ‘go for it’ irrespective of the opponent.
That latter thought in particular is an important factor to consider when deciding how much defensive investment should be in our Gameweek 17 squads.
WORLD CUP FRESHNESS AND FATIGUE
A trend in recent press conferences is managers talking about not worrying about their players going to the World Cup because they will remain match-fit, adding that those not taking part will need to work hard on their sharpness.
I used to think that players who are fully rested will be great after the World Cup, as we already saw after this year’s African Cup of Nations how Mohamed Salah’s (£12.7m) accumulated fatigue led to a reduction in productivity.
Now, I believe there is no point generalising because we will probably only need to worry about the players who reach the semi-finals and beyond. Whilst we will have this information closer to the Gameweek 17 deadline, it might just be worth making a mental note that teams that don’t have many World Cup participants could do well in late December and January.
ATTACKING SEAGULLS
I also wanted to mention how incredibly impressive Brighton’s attack is. Irrespective of the opposition, Leandro Trossard (£7.1m) and Kaoru Mitoma (£4.9m) might be great picks.
They are an extreme version of how things were under Graham Potter. They are very aggressive, create plenty and have impressed me enough to put them down as part of my thinking for the season’s second half.
One thing I do want to mention is that your one-week punts should not transfer out players who you have accumulated substantial value on. The likes of Erling Haaland (£12.2m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Kieran Trippier (£5.9m) will continue to be very important, so have a look at your squad and the value accrued when transferring out players for Gameweek 16.
Additionally, prices can rise on Saturday night of Gameweek 16 based on transfers made before the morning deadline. If you want some of these imminent risers for your Gameweek 17 team, remember to act quickly and get them in place.
This is all from my end. I hope you have a great Gameweek 16. Enjoy your FPL break.
