What can FPL managers expect from Nathan Jones at Southampton?

After almost four years in charge, Ralph Hasenhuttl parted ways with Southampton at the start of November.

He survived numerous 9-0 defeats during his time but the concerning form that ended last season had carried over, putting the Saints in 18th position. This has since slipped to 19th.

Considering their situation, it is a bold and brave move to quickly hire Nathan Jones from Luton Town as Hasenhuttl’s replacement.

Will the 49-year-old spark a surge up the table and what Fantasy Premier League (FPL) impact will he have?

We’ll attempt to answer those questions below.

THE HISTORY

Used as both a left-back and left-midfielder during his playing career, the Welshman signed for Luton but quickly became homesick. He therefore moved to Spain for 18 months.

Upon returning in 1997, Jones’ time at Southend and Scarborough was followed by being part of three Brighton and Hove Albion promotions in five seasons. He moved to Yeovil Town for the 2005/06 campaign – the first of seven – before retiring aged 39.

By this point, he’d already developed an itch for coaching by working with The Glovers’ mens and women’s teams, soon becoming part of Brighton’s staff under Oscar Garcia, Sami Hyypia then Chris Hughton.

January 2016 saw Jones take his first managerial role, risking further homesickness at League Two’s Luton but successfully dragging them away from relegation, before coming fourth the next season. An injury-time own goal meant they lost to Blackpool in the play-off semi-final.

2017/18 ended in promotion whilst also becoming the first team to score at least seven goals on three occasions before Christmas. Luton were about to repeat this success when Stoke City tempted Jones away in January 2019.

However, he soon realised that the recently-relegated Premier League side was in a bad state and results went badly. He didn’t last long into the next season, being sacked with the Potters’ bottom of the Championship.

Returning to Luton months later brought a mixed reaction amongst fans who still felt betrayed by a departure that could have derailed their second successive promotion. Regaining their trust was helped by the Covid lockdown period’s empty stadia, allowing his management to do the talking.

Thanks to this, Jones saved them from relegation and – like before – followed it with a strong promotion push that ended in play-off heartache, this time to Huddersfield Town. His overachievement was recognised when named last season’s Championship Manager of the Year, impressing Southampton enough to make them risk Premier League survival on this top-flight newcomer.

FAVOURED TACTICS

Just as the Saints started the season with one system and then changed it, Jones has shown tactical flexibility throughout his years at Luton.

His first spell there was based on 4-4-2 and a midfield diamond, making the most of his players’ technical capabilities. Then, upon his return, Luton were suddenly in the Championship and thus Jones started using a three-man defence with wing-backs and a more direct style.

No short passes in defence but a system that presses from the front and uses vertical passes to counter-attack. It encourages the wing-backs to attack, despite it leaving themselves prone to wide overloads.

Luckily, we have Southampton’s Gameweek 16 trip to Liverpool to collect some clues on how Jones wants to play.

Above: Southampton’s average positions v Liverpool

The data above comes from our Members Area, where the starting XI are green. Here, Jones has gone for a 3-4-1-2, a system that Hasenhuttl enforced during pre-season but ditched after their poor start, returning to a back four.

Asking his wing-backs to run inwards explains why Mohammed Elyounoussi (£5.2m) has a fairly central average position. It allows technical wizard James Ward-Prowse (£6.2m) to take up a spot out wide that benefits his crossing ability – only Kieran Trippier (£5.9m) has attempted more of them so far.

“We have to do the basics right and make sure we get clean sheets. With the greatest respect, they have not done enough of it, but if we can lay a foundation and be hard to beat and then be really productive going forward, that’s a good recipe for getting points.” – Nathan Jones

It’s too early to determine that this is how Jones’ Southampton will play but there is consistency with his recent tactics and the club’s pre-season intentions.

THE PROSPECTS

As revealed in our club-by-club look of which players are at the World Cup, Southampton have only two taking part.

That means Jones will get to spend a lot of time with most of his squad before the first league match on 26 December.

We may even get a first glimpse at what he has planned, tactically, in the Carabao Cup match against Lincoln City, five days before the restart.

Over the next eight Gameweeks, Southampton have the sixth-best fixture run according to our Season Ticker. It was number one until Double Gameweeks were recently added.

Their one clean sheet is the league’s lowest, so it’s too soon to recommend defensive assets, although keep an eye on Romain Perraud (£4.4m) – he has scored twice during his last six matches.

Penalty taker Ward-Prowse is nailed-on, with Che Adams (£6.4m) a differential alternative to Ivan Toney (£7.4m) and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.8m). Behind these two, Adams has the most penalty area touches and goal attempts of sub-£8.0m forwards.