Our latest Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show, asking if their recent output is sustainable.
Having last looked at these tables after Gameweek 21, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
Manchester City and Brighton and Hove Albion are the league’s two most potent attacks right now, leading the field for xG and actual goals scored. Both sides have created an abundance of chances in their last six matches, averaging over 2.00 xG per game, which is hugely impressive.
Brentford extended their unbeaten run to 10 matches at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. They have now racked up a whopping nine big chances across their two away matches at Arsenal and Man City this season. Ivan Toney (£7.6m) has found the net on both occasions, as The Bees remain in the hunt for a top-six finish.
Their home form has been particularly impressive, having won six and drawn four of their 11 matches, averaging 1.66 xG per game. It’s the foundation of their stellar season, with home games against Crystal Palace and Fulham to come before they ‘double’ in Gameweek 27.
Newcastle United (-6.17 xG delta), Liverpool (-5.98) and Chelsea (-5.24) are the three biggest xG underachievers in the sample and need to become more clinical. The Magpies have been in a real finishing slump since the restart, scoring just six times in seven league games from 11.07 xG.
Leicester City, meanwhile, have served up two of their best attacking displays of the season in Gameweeks 22/23, putting eight goals past Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur. That’s coincided with Tete’s (£5.5m) arrival, which has freed James Maddison (£8.0m) up to play through the middle behind the impressive Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.1m).
LEICESTER’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW23 (TOT) | GW22 (avl) | GW21 (BHA) | GW20 (nfo) | GW19 (FUL) | GW18 (liv) | |
| xG | 1.68 | 2.57 | 0.99 | 1.02 | 1.70 | 0.99 |
| Starting attackers | Tete, Maddison, Barnes – Iheanacho | Tete, Maddison, Barnes – Iheanacho | Praet, Barnes – Vardy | Albrighton, Barnes – Vardy | Perez, Barnes – Vardy | Perez, Barnes – Daka |
As for Leicester’s opponents last weekend, Spurs, their attacking process has been poor, with an improving West Ham United outfit up next on Sunday. The Hammers are now unbeaten in three league games, with their defence looking solid (see below). David Moyes has mostly used a more conservative shape (a wing-back system) in the last month, which perhaps bodes well for future clean sheets.
Finally, Crystal Palace are without a goal from open play in the above sample, averaging just 0.79 xG per game. They next face Brentford, Liverpool and Aston Villa.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
