Captain Sensible
17 March 2023 608 comments
Hibbo Hibbo
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Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers enjoy a brief respite from the helter-skelter of endless “doubles” by welcoming the reduced seven-game schedule of Blank Gameweek 28.

Harry Kane (£11.7m) and a triumvirate of Arsenal attackers assume the roles of chief protagonists, with alternative options from Aston Villa, Brentford and Chelsea providing the supporting cast.

As usual, the Captain Sensible article is here to highlight which assets have the best chance of hauling.

First, we will assess the fallout of the captain poll, before then analysing the best options, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Friday’s 18:30 GMT deadline.

THE CAPTAIN POLL

Harry Kane tops the captain poll of Gameweek 28, backed by over 40% of our users at the time of writing.

Bukayo Saka (£8.5m) sits in second place, with 17.3% of the electorate.

No other player has garnered more than 8% of votes at this stage, with Ollie Watkins (£7.4m) occupying third place backed by a mite under one in 14 of our users, followed by Ivan Toney (£7.8m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m) further back.

THE CANDIDATES

BUKAYO SAKA/MARTIN ODEGAARD/GABRIEL MARTINELLI

Arsenal’s title challenge continues unabated, with Mikel Arteta’s young Gunners’ holding a five-point lead over nearest rivals Manchester City.

This finely tuned and youthful attack has the underlying numbers to sustain a title challenge, ranking second-best this season for non-penalty expected goals (NPxG, 51.79), which is only marginally behind Pep Guardiola’s side (52.23).

Bukayo Saka assumes the role of talisman in this attacking unit and boasts strong underlying numbers which highlight his importance for the north London outfit.

The England starlet has demonstrated remarkable consistency this term, ranking third-best in the division for attacking returns (20), with double-digit tallies for both goals (10) and assists (10) highlighting his all-round appeal.

Saka’s 16 attempts, 11 shots in the box and five on target all place in the top four for Arteta’s charges over the last six matches but is underwhelming compared to the division’s best over that same period.

Analysing the expected data confirms a recent dip in Saka’s production, only sneaking inside his team’s top four for NPxG and NPxGI (non-penalty expected goal involvement) with 1.32 and 2.21 respectively.

Meanwhile, Martin Odegaard (£6.9m) scored in Arsenal’s 3-0 demolition of Fulham last Sunday. The Norwegian’s second strike in three Premier League outings highlights a return to form.

The playmaker has been operating a ‘shoot on sight’ policy in recent weeks that yields strong underlying goal threat numbers.

Over the last six matches, the Nordic maestro sits second-best in the division for goal attempts (22) – an impressive tally which supplements his third-best number of chances created (18), supplying two big chances for his Arsenal brethren.

Gabriel Martinelli has overcome brief concerns about his status as a first-choice starter and instead turned into their star attacker. The Brazilian’s five goals over six matches rank joint-best in the league, with an upturn in production due to a partnership forming with Leandro Trossard (£6.6m).

Martinelli’s 13 shots in the box, six big chances and six on target all placed top among Arsenal assets over these half-dozen games. In fact, he excels throughout the whole league, ranking second-best for NPxG (3.26) and inside the top four for NPxGI (3.93).

Arsenal host Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace in Gameweek 28 – a side winless in their last 11 Premier League matches. Despite demonstrating reasonable mid-table underlying defensive stats, the Eagles have registered only one clean sheet in the last six and place in the top twelve for conceding shots in the box (49), big chances (12) and expected goals (xGC, 8.16).

HARRY KANE



Hibbo Author of Captain Sensible. I write Fantasy Premier League articles, focusing on stats and strategy. Four top 10k finishes. 22/23 Rank - 6123.  Follow them on Twitter

608 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    If Schar is out, would you

    A: move him on to Chilwell for a hit?
    B: Play 10 as Schar will come back for dgw29 and also has dgw31
    C: Play 10 and move Pinnock >> Chilwell (-4)

    1. Toby Lerone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Not sure a hit is worth it tbf

    2. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Would do the hit for chilly I reckon.

      1. Boberella
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        *that’s for Schar by the way

  2. Pep Roulette
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Chances of Martinelli & Zinchenko starting on Sunday?

    1. Jengkreng
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Martinelli play full time...quite worry he will be rested...but still hope martinelli will play...i have him too

    2. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Given minutes in Europa, I can see both starting on the bench, with Tierney and Jesus/Trossard etc in the wings.

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Martinelli will start but come off around 60.

      1. Hughes Your Daddy
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Around 59 probably 😀

        1. Amartey Partey
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 21 days ago

          Probably

    4. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      The only game of the EPL on Sunday not on TV.

      What a joke

    5. Jengkreng
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      But after palace they will rest untill 1 april ...hope they will play beyond 60 minutes...quite worry with white too

  3. Toby Lerone
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Morning all. Happy Gold Cup day

    1. :
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      A Plus Tard for me. Let's hope I'm not calling him A Bas Tard at 3.40!

  4. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Can't decide what to do? I have 2 FT's.

    A. Henry > Chilwell
    B. Haaland > Watkins

    1. March > Maddison
    2. Haaland > Watkins

    Or something else that I am missing?

    Current Team

    Kepa

    Zinc / Henry / Trippier / Schar

    Saka / Odegaard / Rashford

    Haaland / Kane / Toney

    Raya | Mitoma | March | Estupinan

    Thanks

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      1&2 cos I think/hope maddy outscores chilwell this week and gives you more players keeping Henry

  5. Boberella
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Is Bowen being overlooked for the DGW29? Southampton and Newcastle at home. Decent fixtures. Suppose it has to be an arsenal mid making, way but a tempting differential

    1. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Pity it seems he is off penalties...benhrama maybe...risky though

      1. Boberella
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Agree on the penalties thing, but Bowen has looked way more lively the last few games… but it is still west ham

    2. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Certainly considered it but inconsistent of late.

  6. Venom Snake
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    I have all my chips still available. Thoughts on hitting the WC today and preparing a BB for next GW?

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Depends on your team obviously, but it’s a popular strategy.

      1. Boberella
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        (Eg: loading up with 14-15 doubles for 29 and still fielding 10 this week)

        1. Venom Snake
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 21 days ago

          Is Steele locked in now?

          1. Boberella
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 21 days ago

            Don’t know. I’m getti by Rod of Sanchez this week but it won’t be for Steele.

            1. Boberella
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 21 days ago

              *getting rid

    2. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I did it yesterday……feels good! Only got 13doubles though, but that’s enough to bench boost the hell out if it next week!

      1. Venom Snake
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        There are a lot of good options with a single GW so I’ll probably do the same

  7. Djemba-Djemba
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    What's the best possible FH team?

    1. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      You will find out late sunday

      1. Djemba-Djemba
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Ever considered a career in stand up comedy?

  8. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    If schar is out just for this gw, who would you sell for chilwell?

    A. Estupian
    B. Mee
    C. Schar

    1. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      schar

    2. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      What's wrong with Schar?

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Not included in the Swiss squad due to injury

        1. JohnnyCroat
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 21 days ago

          What was he out for previously? Might be that, squads mean nothing if a player can be called up later.

    3. DavvaMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I think Schar is OK, was seen in training pics yesterday.

  9. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Don't we play FPL to work out and decide that for ourselves ?

    You can copy the Scouts Picks here if you want a good guide.

  10. Pep Roulette
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Is Reece James going to start?

  11. Roy Rovers
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    GW 29 & BB time = 12 DGW with Kane, Saka & Marty sat on the bench.

    Is that enough??

    1. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      More than enough!

  12. dansmith1985
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Have played my FH,not sure who I should play between Cash and Maddison though?

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Surely Maddison? Be weird not to play the attacker

  13. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Is Steele Nailed?

    1. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      No idea but I got a nice haul from him last week, you're welcome.

      1. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Thanks

        1. JIMMY TUGGINS
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 21 days ago

          Really though, he's safe for the moment until he messes up which is a possibility, I don't rate him or Sanchez.

  14. BusbySwede
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Have 11 starters, i hope.
    1 FT, roll it or do Mee to Chilwell now?

    Kepa
    Gabriel, Trippier, Mings, Mee
    Saka, Odegaard, Maddison
    Kane, Toney, Watkins

  15. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Who is ur C ?

    1. NZREDS
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Kane this week, no two ways about it

    2. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Øde

    3. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Between Kane, Ode, Madds and Chilwell for me. Chasing, so would like to go a differential, but will end up on Kane I think.

    4. Zimo
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Toney

  16. padamy
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Need help.

    Kepa
    Trippier, Zinch, Henry, Botman
    Mitoma, Martinelli, Saka
    Kane, Haaland, Toney

    Ward, March, Estupinan, Rashford

    2 free transfers, 4,2itb

    What do?

    A.) Estupi->Chilwell
    B.) Haaland->Watkins
    C.) A+B

    I hate the thought of selling Haaland. The only thing I'm leaning towards is that I'm sure Toney will get a yellow within 3 games (gw28 and dgw29).

    Opinions?

  17. pnitishmk
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Kepa
    Mee, Trippier, Botman, Zinchenko, Estu*
    Martinelli, Saka
    Watkins, Kane, Toney
    (Raya, Mitoma, March, Rashford)

    A) Estu -> Chilwell
    B) March/Mitoma -> Maddison

    1. NZREDS
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I’d go chillwell, Maddison too unreliable (although I’ve got him and not chilly)

  18. it lies in the proles
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Only 6 players for BGW and all chips left.

    What’s more efficient, to FH now and BB next week with some hits or WC now and BB next week without hits?

    In other words, is it better to maximise both gameweeks separately (even if it requires some hits) or use the same players for both weeks?

    Current team: kepa, ward, triple ars, liverpool, couple brighton, rash, halaand.

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      WC this week to set yourself up nicely for BGW28 and then BB DGW29.

      1. Boberella
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        This. 100%

  19. Botman and Robben
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    How many on here captaining Watkins?

    1. el polako
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      7.06%

      1. alsybach
        • 16 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Good, very accurate answer.

  20. gellinmagellan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Hey guys, a bit confused and could use with some feedback. I have my WC, FH and BB left. For this week, I have 6 starters and can get to 8 with -4 or 9 with -8. Probably seems like the week to use a chip though considering such few starters but not sure which one - FH or WC?

    Current team:

    Kepa
    Trippier Tarkowski White (Shaw Bueno)
    Saka (Salah Rashford MacAllister Mitoma)
    Toney (Haaland Mitrovic)

    1. Ranger3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      WC now with your eyes on GW29

    2. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Wildcard the hell out of it it ready for a juicy bench boost in 29. There is NO other option. None!

      1. Bruno Commando
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        This

      2. gellinmagellan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Thank youu, needed that assertiveness!

  21. JohnnyCroat
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    I'd be interested in input re: Martinelli. Didn't watch last night but they said he was one of Arsenal's best players. But did play all the minutes. Sunday game, at home, should be okay to start right? Minutes managed of course.

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I am mentally prepared for him to be benched. Bummed.

    2. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Yes he will start because it’s riskier for Arteta to start Jesus. Saka looked more tired than Martinelli anyway.

      1. Bruno Commando
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        I certainly hope that you are right!

  22. alsybach
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    I’m on a WC with an eye firmly on 29 is Martinelli to Bowen suicide or genius?

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      High risk but could pay off tbh. He will likely start on the bench or have his minutes managed even if he starts on Sunday. Only 1 fixture in GW29.

      And Bowen has DGW29 so...it might really pay off.

    2. Ranger3
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      There are better options on WC, Bowen does not even have a fixture this week

      1. Bruno Commando
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Ah I didn't know the Hammers aren't playing this GW! Ok no to Bowen then!

      2. alsybach
        • 16 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        I’ve got plenty of players this week!

        1. Ranger3
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 21 days ago

          Ok so you do not have Rashford, or Brighton boys on your bench.. Thats different, go for it if you feel it then

    3. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I’m strongly considering losing an Arsenal mid for Bowen in 29 for the japes. High upside. Could go horribly wrong!

    4. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      You decide its your team 🙂

  23. Amartey Partey
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Does Estupinan land in England the day before Brighton vs Brentford or two days before?

    1. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I remember there was this guy who stalked the hell out of someone's plane. Hilarious and we will probably need him again.

      1. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 21 days ago

        Was his name Surely?

        1. Bruno Commando
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 21 days ago

          I can't remember his Twitter name and who he was tracking. The regular updates of the plane location was so funny!

          1. Jordan.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            3 years, 21 days ago

            i think it was raphinha returning from brazil,no idea on the tracker tho

            1. Bruno Commando
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 21 days ago

              Ah yes I think it is Raphinha too!

    2. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Not sure.
      Personally think he’s worth keeping despite this risk. He’ll at least get one game and has another two doubles down the line.
      Uses a transfer up too.

  24. M2.0
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    My transfers are out of the way already. Don’t normally do it this early but wanted to avoid the noise of content creaters etc. and enjoy my Friday. 2FT:

    Estupinian > Chilwell
    March > Barnes

    Good luck everyone!

  25. tibollom
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Chasing about 80pts, did halaand to Watkins and have 1 FT left.. should I...

    a. roll FT
    b. Veltman to Chilwell and play chillwell instead of Pinnock.

    Currently I can field a full 11...plan is to BB in 29 so maybe best to keep that extra FT??

    Kepa
    Pinnock White Mings Trippier
    saka Ode Maddison
    Watkins Kane Toney

    Raya Rash Mitoma Veltman

  26. Evasivo
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Play Kepa or Raya?

    1. M2.0
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I’m playing Kepa as i brought in a Leicester mid. Didn’t like the idea of Barnes up against double Brentford defence.

    2. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Kepa

    3. Il Capitano
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Kepa

  27. The Mighty Whites
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    A - Estupinan to Chilwell (11 players)
    B - Henry to Chilwell (10 players)
    C - Keep Estupinan & Henry and roll transfer, play Henry (10 players)

    1. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      B

    2. Bruno Commando
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      A

    3. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      A
      And maybe get third Brighton Mid for DGW 29

    4. Quality Quality Qualit
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      I'm doing C

  28. Amartey Partey
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    A

  29. Dotherightthing
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    Thoughts on Mudryk?

    1. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Too risky.

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      No thoughts

    3. Dotherightthing
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      Big differential… he did play up front against Leicester though…

  30. JIMMY TUGGINS
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 21 days ago

    How important do you think it is to own Chelsea def in 29? I BBed last week and don't have any at the moment, considering bringing in Chilwell for Estup.

    1. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 21 days ago

      It would be silly not to have chilly!