With Fantasy Premier League (FPL) live for 2023/24, we’re welcoming back our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers for the new campaign. Next up, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly Q&A – and reveals his own Gameweek 1 team.
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Q: With the new rule changes, we are going to see games last considerably longer. What effect do you see this having? Are we likely to see fewer clean sheets and more goals? Should we prioritise attacking defenders over clean sheets? Are the City defenders less appealing as they are more prone to one-point cameos? And should we be picking a team of 90-minute players over the ones who are usually subbed early (eg Odegaard vs Martinelli)?
(via Hueng-min Son of a)
A: My initial instinct about the rule changes is that players who are more nailed for minutes, such as Martin Odegaard (£8.5m) and Bruno Fernandes (£8.0m), become a lot more valuable because the later minutes in the games are when we are more likely to see goals, with the opposition often chasing the game.
It’s not always a clear-cut decision, though. A case in point being Gabriel Martinelli (£8.5m) v Odegaard, as we would always think that the Brazilian is far more explosive but is more likely to get subbed around the 60th or 70th minute. Odegaard would get the 100 minutes but have a lower expected goal involvement (xGI) than Martinelli. I think this adds a new element to our selection which we haven’t really factored in before and you’d really know the patterns more as the season wears on.
It could mean fewer clean sheets, with an increased likelihood of the dreaded ‘clean sheet wipeout’. As always, we should prioritise attacking defenders but for me personally, it means that I am less likely to double up on a defence now as I just don’t want to deal with the anxiety. That’s the only change in terms of defence for me, personally.
You make a good point with the sub-on cameos being more likely, as teams are more likely to use all five substitutions. Nailed-on defenders are certainly more valuable now.
Q: Is Alejandro Garnacho an option? Could he be the one to unlock the Harry Kane/Mohamed Salah + Erling Haaland draft?
(via pundit of punts)
A: We did a two-hour attackers pod last night on the FPL Wire and while my United-supporting co-hosts Lateriser and Pras fans were quite keen on Alejandro Garnacho (£5.0m) as an enabler, I am afraid I don’t share the same sentiment. I think Manchester United spots are quite valuable in defence and attack, and Garnacho also takes up a midfield slot which is prime real estate this season.
Q: Do you think a bare-bones bench is risky early on? Especially with Sheffield United losing key players and both Burnley and Luton Town blanking in Gameweek 2.
(via AC/DC AFC)
A: This is a question I’m asking myself as I very rarely go into a season with a bare-bones bench of two £4.0m defenders but this season in particular, we actually have options who we can expect to start from the promoted teams.
The main problem here is Gameweek 2, where two of these promoted teams blank. I also don’t really want a Sheffield United defender in the long term. I think it depends on how many minutes-risk players you have in your squad. If you have just one, maybe somebody like John Stones (£5.5m), you could risk it, because I think it is more valuable having that £0.5m in the bank early on to give you that flexibility for early moves.
Q: Is 3-4-3 an option, with a frontline of Erling Haaland, Ollie Watkins and Joao Pedro plus a strong first substitute such as Ben Chilwell?
(via @alexwaterbaby)
A: My main problem with the 3-4-3 formation is the lack of forward options this season, especially with the injuries to Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) and Christopher Nkunku (£7.5m). I think there are way better options available in midfield and that fifth midfield spot could be useful. I plan to use that as possibly my ‘flair pick’, the low-owned midfielder who I will keep hopping on/off according to fixtures/form. I see a lot of love for Joao Pedro (£5.5m) in the community but I’m not a big fan of it myself as I know very little about the player and how he would fit into Roberto De Zerbi’s system.
The problem with going with somebody like Ben Chilwell (£5.5m) as a first substitute means that you will have at least one million tied up in your 12th player, which I really don’t like early on in the season. You want as much cash available to spend in your first XI because bandwagons do emerge early on and I think that price structure will constrain you from making the moves you want.
Q: What do you think the expected minutes of Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard are?
(via @mario_bajada)
A: Arsenal have way more tactical options this season and Leandro Trossard’s (£7.0m) form in pre-season simply cannot be ignored. His versatility means that he can play in several positions, whereas Gabriel Martinelli (£8.0m) you have to think can only play on the left. Odegaard is in a different bracket altogether: he is nailed on for minutes and I think he’s one of the most likely attackers to play every game without getting subbed off. But the problem again is what will his role be with the new signings, how will Kai Havertz (£7.5m) affect him and how forward will he get.
I am guessing Martinelli gets more minutes than Trossard but the Belgian international could yet benefit from Gabriel Jesus’ absence in the short term, with possible minutes up top. Once the Champions League kicks in around Gameweek 5, it’s going to be a lottery every week.
So in terms of ‘xMins’, I’d go Odegaard, Martinelli and Trossard in that order.
Q: Who’s the best £4.5m goalkeeper to start the season with?
(via @FPL_Gazza2000)
A: The £4.5m goalkeeper slot for me comes down to two options: Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) and Sam Johnstone (£4.5m). I currently prefer Pickford because when Everton have difficult fixtures, you could possibly rotate him with somebody like Matt Turner (£4.0m). Turner has good fixtures in Gameweeks 2, 5 and 9, when Nottingham Forest play Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton. Everton have difficult games against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Liverpool in those weeks.
Palace are also a good defence and are known for allowing a lot of low-xG shots, which should bode well for Johnstone’s saves and bonus – so I wouldn’t put anyone off him either.
Zophar’s current Gameweek 1 team draft
We already have done a lot of pre-season content on Arsenal, Brighton, Man City, Liverpool and defenders on the FPL Wire. We have now recorded our attackers pod, which you can check out here:
Bring on the football!
