Arsenal have already added big-money signings Declan Rice (£5.5m), Kai Havertz (£7.5m) and Jurrien Timber (£4.9m) to their squad this summer. Yet perhaps the most intriguing capture from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) perspective is David Raya (£5.0m).
The goalkeeper has joined from Brentford on a season-long loan that could later be made permanent for £27m. This is an arrangement that allows them to comply with Financial Fair Play regulations.
However, 18.5% of FPL managers began the season with Aaron Ramsdale (£5.0m) in their squad. How concerned should they be about Raya’s presence?
We’ll take a look during this Moving Target piece, where we have included data and images from our Premium Members Area.
HISTORY
Now 27 years old, frequent first-team action didn’t arrive until Raya was aged 22 at Blackburn Rovers. Beforehand, he was Jason Steele‘s (£4.5m) understudy during a 2016-17 relegation to League One – both stoppers have landed on their feet since then!
Rovers bounced back with immediate promotion and, after a year in the Championship, Raya joined Brentford for £3m. His debut season for the Bees ended with a share of the EFL Golden Glove award alongside play-off final heartbreak versus Fulham.
Fortunately, the Premier League was reached at the next attempt. And Raya celebrated keeping an opening-night clean sheet by getting the date tattooed onto his neck. The opposition that day? Arsenal.
More successful shut-outs soon followed but a knee injury forced him to miss several months. Yet last season saw Raya – now a Spanish international – play every minute for Thomas Frank’s side.
COMPARING RAYA AND RAMSDALE
2022/23’s Brentford had a strange combination of conceding the second-most shots on target (197) whilst also allowing the fourth-fewest big chances (67). No team had a bigger difference.
This allowed Raya to be a sweet mix of clean sheets (12) and lots of saves from poorer, non-threatening attempts.
In fact, Raya was FPL’s top-scoring goalkeeper of last season with 166 points. He was also number one for saves (154), save points (39), bonuses (20) and save percentage (78.2%) amongst regulars.
When looking at the numbers, Ramsdale kept more clean sheets but only saved 69.9% of shots he faced on target. Furthermore, whereas Raya prevented 2.80 expected goals on target (xGOT), Ramsdale went under by 2.20.
| Clean sheets | Saves | Shots on target faced | Save rate (%) | xG prevented (xGP) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramsdale | 14 | 97 | 136 | 69.9% | -2.20 |
| Raya | 12 | 154 | 197 | 78.2% | +2.80 |
The Opta graphics below hint at why there’s such an xGP difference, with Ramsdale conceding on more occasions from shots that were hit at the centre of the goal:
Both goalkeepers played all of last season’s minutes. This Premier League video shows that the similarities don’t end there.
And both ‘keepers are good with the ball, with Ramsdale having a better pass completion rate during last season – although Raya was often asked to go direct more often at Brentford.
| Passes into final third | Long passes | Successful long passes | Pass completion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramsdale | 234 | 322 | 104 | 68.5% |
| Raya | 384 | 621 | 263 | 64.3% |
So it’s not like Raya is here to replace a weakness of the England keeper when it comes to distribution.
Then again, he does have a history as an outfield futsal player. At Blackburn, he played footgolf weekly in order to improve his long-distance kicking and it certainly shows. 42% of 2022/23’s long passes found a team-mate and – according to Opta – his nine secondary chances created (the pass before the pass) were four more than any other stopper.
Similarly, his 22 completed progressive passes were almost four times that of the next best.
QUOTES
From manager Mikel Arteta’s perspective, this transfer is purely about increasing competition throughout the whole squad. As centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.0m) discovered in Gameweek 1, the Gunners don’t want to stand still after last season’s title challenge. No player is immune from rotation.
“That’s what we’ve been trying to do. Increase the depth of the squad and the quality as well, the ability to be more flexible and have more quality and more interactions with players that can make us better. That’s the whole point of it.” – Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta
After all, Ramsdale did the same to Bernd Leno (£4.5m) when he joined in the summer of 2021.
“Bring it on. Nothing comes easy in football but also, at the same time, you need to move along and need to adapt as well as yourself.
“I’ve done it (replaced the number one goalkeeper) to other people so I am not going to be thinking that it is never going to happen to me. If it happens, it happens and then we will fight and make each other the best version of ourselves” – Aaron Ramsdale on Raya’s arrival
Meanwhile, Brentford staff are respectful of Raya’s wish to depart, realising they had a talent destined for bigger things.
“David has been a magnificent goalkeeper for us. He thoroughly deserves his move to a Champions League club and the next step in his career. In our view he is one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League and will show himself to be one of the best in the world in the next few seasons.” – Brentford director of football Phil Giles
Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp has already spoken before about Raya’s footwork. After September 2021’s 3-3 draw, the exasperated head coach felt he possessed the skills of a playmaker.
“The goalkeeper could wear the number 10 shirt. He has sent several incredible balls, exactly what you should do when you play against us.” – Jurgen Klopp
Whilst former Blackburn and Aston Villa stopper Brad Friedel is struggling to separate the two.
“When you see the stats – specifically shot stopping and handling which shows where the goalkeeper is parrying the ball out to or holding onto – Raya has much more efficiency.
“Sweeping is where Ramsdale has the advantage owing to the way Arsenal play and he’s very good at it. This is why Ederson fits with Manchester City. It’s going to be huge competition between the two and not a decision I’d want to make if I was a coach.” – Brad Friedel
RAYA’S FPL PROSPECTS
Right now, Ramsdale has the shirt. He faced Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 1 and, despite a couple of shaky moments, couldn’t do much about the close-range Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.5m) goal.
A new contract was signed in May that supposedly doubled his wage, so his future seems to remain at Arsenal. However, beyond the next couple of matches, there is more uncertainty about who will be number 1. Perhaps there’ll be more clues when the Champions League group stage begins, i.e. with one ‘keeper starting domestic fixtures and the other between the posts in Europe.
Arteta hopes having both will raise general standards, pushing each other on to become the very best version of themselves. But this one swoop instantly hurts two popular FPL goalkeepers – neither can be recommended, as a result.
Perhaps the main impact of this deal is that Matt Turner (£4.0m) was therefore allowed to join Forest, finally giving us an option at the lowest starting price.
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