This Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores each Premier League side’s expected goals (xG) data, assessing them from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also identify the players who are top for expected goal involvement (xGI) in 2023/24 so far.
Granted, four matches (Burnley and Luton Town have played one game fewer) is a small sample size, but already we are seeing some familiar patterns emerge: Manchester City and Brighton and Hove Albion are among the top clubs for xG, for instance, while newcomers Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town languish near the bottom for both xG and expected goals conceded (xGC).
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TEAMS
MINUTES PER XG
Brentford’s attack is thriving despite Ivan Toney’s (£7.9m) absence, having achieved the highest xG in the top-flight so far.
The team is creating numerous opportunities to score and even discounting penalties (they have been awarded two), are averaging 2.1 xG per game, a hugely encouraging stat for Thomas Frank’s new-look strikeforce.
Man City and Brighton follow closely with 43.6 and 43.8 minutes-per-xG respectively.
Chelsea had one of the easier starts according to our Season Ticker but their run of four games has yielded only five goals. They have created enough chances, but Nicolas Jackson (£7.2m) is still adjusting to life in the Premier League and has only scored once from 3.03 xG so far. If he can find his shooting boots, expect results to pick up quickly.
It’s been an odd start for Aston Villa but they have beaten the Premier League teams you’d expect them to (Everton and Burnley). They have been dominant in both wins, racking up a combined 5.7 xG, displaying just how good Unai Emery’s side can be against weaker opposition. That’s worth remembering in a few weeks’ time: from Gameweeks 8 to 14, they embark on a ticker-topping run:
Elsewhere, the Ange Postecoglou era at Tottenham Hotspur has started very well, with Spurs unbeaten in four. They have overperformed their xG so far (+3.65 xG delta), but only Brighton have attempted more shots than their tally of 73, so their attack is clearly progressing.
Finishing has been a problem for Manchester United (-3.05 xG delta) but it’s been even worse at Everton (-5.28 xG delta).
They started the season with three losses, without a goal scored, but did create chances, especially in Gameweek 1 against Fulham, when they recorded 2.72 xG. Summer signings Beto (£6.0m) and Arnaut Danjuma (£5.5m) at least provide some encouragement that future opportunities might be taken, perhaps in Gameweeks 7 and 8, when the Toffees host Luton and Bournemouth at Goodison Park.
Newcomers Sheffield United sit bottom, but the arrivals of Gustavo Hamer (£5.0m) and Cameron Archer (£4.5m) give cause for optimism.
MINUTES PER XGC
