This Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective. We’ll also identify the top expected goal involvement (xGI) performers.
Having last looked at these tables ahead of Gameweek 5, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
Newcastle United have had the Premier League’s most potent attack in the last six matches, leading for xG and actual goals scored. If we break the figures down by Gameweek, we can see a large chunk of their 13.78 xG total was accumulated in one match at Sheffield United. However, even removing that fixture from the equation, they are still averaging just under 2.0 xG per game, a hugely encouraging stat.
NEWCASTLE’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW8 (whu) | GW7 (BUR) | GW6 (shu) | GW5 (BRE) | GW4 (bha) | GW3 (LIV) | |
| xG | 2.01 | 3.19 | 3.92 | 1.44 | 1.23 | 1.99 |
Manchester City have lost all three matches during Rodri’s (£5.6m) suspension. Two of those losses have been in the Premier League, a period which has seen Pep Guardiola’s side create just 1.35 xG. It suggests the Spaniard is not only key to the defensive cover he provides but also crucial to building attacks. Between Gameweeks 9-15, Man City face four of the ‘big six’, plus Aston Villa and Brighton and Hove Albion.
Tottenham Hotspur’s license to play free-flowing attacking football under Ange Postecoglou is reflected, yet a more surprising name appears one place below in sixth.
Everton‘s fixtures have been favourable, yet remarkably, they sit top for big chances (24) and second for shots taken (105) in the last six matches. Creating chances isn’t a problem, but they do need to sharpen up their finishing, given that they have underperformed their xG by 2.57, more than any other side bar Bournemouth and Luton Town.
The recent performances of Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) at least provide some encouragement that opportunities might be taken in the future: Everton visit Liverpool and West Ham United on return from the international break.
Elsewhere, Manchester United aren’t creating enough in the way of clear-cut chances and are finding it difficult when opposition sides double up and man-mark Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m). Roy Hodgson and Crystal Palace, meanwhile, don’t have the luxury of calling upon Eberechi Eze (£6.1m) and Michael Olise (£5.8m) right now, which has seen a change in approach, as they prioritise a solid defence and keeping clean sheets.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
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