Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers brace themselves for December’s last quick turnaround, as we analyse the armband conundrum for the final round of festive fixtures.
With Erling Haaland (£13.9m) seemingly off the menu, four prime contenders slug it out in the most pivotal captaincy conversation this season.
Assets from Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa come under the microscope as we highlight which assets have the best chance of hauling.
First, we will assess the fallout of the weekly captain poll before analysing the best options, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 GMT deadline.
THE CAPTAIN POLL
Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) failed to score last time out in Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Burnley at Turf Moor, when he was the overwhelming armband favourite, despite producing some reasonable underlying numbers.
Salah forced a good save from the Clarets custodian, and smashed the crossbar shortly after, on his way to registering joint match-leading totals for both efforts in the box (three) and shots on target (two).
The Egyptian’s underwhelming Fantasy showing has done little to dissuade the faith of our users, with Liverpool’s right-winger backed by over three-tenths to put Eddie Howe’s battle-weary Newcastle United to the sword.
Meanwhile, Son Heung-min (£9.9m) supplied an assist as Tottenham Hotspur rallied in the latter stages of their high-octane 4-2 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Spurs marksman produced a match-leading five shots – four of which came from inside the box – but Son lacked his usual trademark accuracy by failing to hit the target.
The South Korean is backed by just over 15% of our users to rediscover his goal-scoring touch against Andoni Iraola’s high-flying Bournemouth side.
Julian Alvarez (£6.9m), now occupying a centre-forward role rather than being asked to play deeper, has experienced a surge in votes to narrowly overtake Son in the captaincy poll.
Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) occupies fourth place with 12.2% of the vote, followed by Phil Foden (£7.6m) further back.
THE PLAYER STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Salah’s appeal is obvious here. Ranked top for shots on target (12), Liverpool’s Egyptian registers a goal involvement every 143 minutes – which is third-best in this assessment.
Salah eclipses Son for total attempts (21 to 17) and efforts in the box (17 to 14), though the South Korean holds a slender advantage for big chances received (four to three).
The much-maligned Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) surprisingly joint-tops this assessment for shots (24), with the Colney graduate registering a goal involvement at the second-quickest rate: one every 131 minutes.
Saka sits at the summit for key passes (17), level with Julian Alvarez, and holds a slight advantage over the Argentine for expected assists (xA), by 2.47 to 2.21.
Five efforts on target by Alvarez ranks worst in this assessment, while four big chances received is one less than Richarlison (£6.8m), with Alvarez’s goal involvement every 149 minutes marginally slower than Salah’s.
Staying with Man City, and despite some encouraging displays, Foden registers a non-penalty goal involvement every 250 minutes – that’s second-worst among present company.
Despite Richarlison’s relatively low shot volumes – 12 shots and five efforts on target over the last six – the Brazilian ranks second-best for non-penalty xG.
Meanwhile, Watkins’ underlying numbers have slumped badly compared to earlier in the season, with the Villa marksman placing joint-worst in this assessment for both shots on target (five) and non-penalty xG (1.07). With just one big chance received and a goal involvement every 365 minutes, Watkins feels like an armband ‘avoid’ despite an appealing fixture.
For Chelsea, Cole Palmer (£5.6m) is set to return from suspension ahead of their visit to Luton Town, with the playmaker’s expected assist (xA) tally of 1.71 ranking third-best in this sample.
TEAM ATTACKING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Saka’s Arsenal have dramatically increased their goal threat recently, placing top for big chances (22), total attempts (123) and efforts in the box (87) over their last six league matches.
Arteta’s attack places second for non-penalty xG with a tally of 12.31 – bettered by only Newcastle United over the assessment period – but the Gunners have underperformed, scoring on just nine occasions.
Salah’s Liverpool registered 121 goal attempts, trailing only Arsenal over the last six, with the Reds joint-second for shots in the box (74).
Klopp’s side have impressed for accuracy, placing joint-top for shots on target (43) alongside Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton team.
Meanwhile, Spurs’ 14 goals over the assessment period are bettered only by Bournemouth (16), with Ange Postecoglou’s side sitting in the top five for efforts on target (36) and non-penalty xG (10.80).
Elsewhere, Watkins’ Aston Villa place in the bottom six for non-penalty xG (7.58), and rank in the bottom eight for big chances (12) and efforts in the box (45).
Guardiola’s Man City have lacked their trademark dominance on the team data table, sitting as low as seventh for shots in the box (62) and non-penalty xG (9.61).
Finally, Chelsea rank in the bottom half for efforts in the box (46) and shots on target (24). But 21 big chances are good enough to seal third place for Mauricio Pochettino’s side, who rank fifth for non-penalty xG (10.67) over the period.
TEAM DEFENDING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Encouragingly for Palmer’s Chelsea, Luton ranked worst in the division for efforts in the box against (80) and non-penalty xG conceded (13.11).
No side has conceded more goal attempts from set pieces than the Hatters (32), who have registered a solitary clean sheet this season.
Meanwhile, the underlying defensive data for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United has slumped recently, ranking second-worst for non-penalty xG conceded (12.1) over the last six matches.
The Magpies sit in the bottom three for big chances against (15) and open play attempts conceded (73) ahead of their visit to Anfield.
Man City’s visitors Sheffield United have improved in terms of defensive underlying data under new manager Chris Wilder, but 13 goals conceded by the Blades over the last six is joint-worst with Nottingham Forest.
Wilder’s side place in the top half for non-penalty xG conceded (8.71) and efforts in the box against (52), offering a glimmer of hope before their showdown with Pep Guardiola’s attacking juggernaut.
Meanwhile, Watkins’ Aston Villa host a Burnley side rooted in the relegation places but improved of late.
Only three teams have conceded fewer goals than Burnley’s six in as many matches, and while the Clarets have shipped 66 efforts in the box, their midtable placing for non-penalty xG (8.71) and two clean sheets further evidences their recent improvement.
Elsewhere, Saka’s Arsenal are hosted by Marco Silva’s Fulham side who are winless in three, with only two sides conceding more than their 12 goals over the last six.
The Cottagers place midtable for big chances shipped (15), efforts in the box against (56) and non-penalty xG conceded (8.75).
Finally, Son’s visitors Bournemouth sit second-best for non-penalty xG conceded (4.92), allowing the fewest big chances and goals (both five) over the assessment period.
RATE MY TEAM
Above: RMT’s leading captaincy selections for Gameweek 20
Foden tops the RMT ratings in Gameweek 20, with the Man City starlet forecast to score 7.19 points against Sheffield United.
In second place is Alvarez and his 6.62, followed by Mohamed Salah’s 6.58 points.
PREMIER FANTASY TOOLS
Above: The leading captaincy candidates for Gameweek 20 according to Premier Fantasy Tools
Our friends at Premier Fantasy Tools offer a whole range of captaincy tools on their website, one of which is the Captain Picker.
They side with Son Heung-min this week, with Phil Foden second and Julian Alvarez third from the key names we’ve mentioned here.
You can also use Premier Fantasy Tools’ Captain Analyser to assess your armband picks for the season – and see where they went right and wrong.
IN CONCLUSION
Arguably, Man City’s match-up with Sheffield United is potentially the most one-sided this season with market data collated by @robtFPL suggesting the highest projected goals (3.35).
RMT also favours the Citizens, with three prime candidates among the top five marking the Man City attack out as a very likely source of points despite Sheffield United’s defensive improvement.
Man City’s Alvarez is thrust into the captaincy conversation this week, and in the very likely continued absence of Haaland, the World Cup winner has assumed spot-kick duties.
His recent numbers, however, have underwhelmed – although an obvious caveat is that Alvarez started as City’s out-and-out striker in only three matches of the data sample.
Furthermore, it can’t be ignored that Alvarez’s fortuitous penalty at Goodison Park was the Argentine’s first since Gameweek 9.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s Salah and Spurs’ Son are very much in the frame despite a recent dip in their respective underlying numbers.
We are used to dominance with Salah – that isn’t there right now – and while Liverpool face a Newcastle United rearguard that has struggled with fatigue of late, the Magpies have shown themselves capable at UEFA Champions League level.
Elsewhere, Son hosts a Bournemouth side much improved under Andoni Iraola’s tutelage and boasting some of the division’s strongest recent defensive numbers.
All three are excellent options but in terms of producing a final ranking, I’m backing the fixture – and Julian Alvarez.
Taking second place is Mohamed Salah ahead of the visit of Newcastle United, with the Egyptian’s failure to score in his last four Premier League outings against the Magpies a blot on his record.
Completing the top three is Son Heung-min, with the South Korean in fine form for Postecoglou’s side – but a whole raft of injuries for Spurs and good form for the Cherries has cooled my interest.
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