A one-sided six-goal thriller played out at Anfield on Monday night as Liverpool set a new expected goals (xG) record en route to victory over Newcastle United.
We’ve got the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from Merseyside covered in this Scout Notes article.
SALAH HAULS – AND EXITS FOR AFCON
At half-time of the match at Anfield, Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) was sat on a Gameweek 20 score of -1.
A missed first-half penalty had threatened to seriously sour his farewell party before his imminent departure for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
Fast-forward 45 minutes and Salah had posted his joint-biggest FPL score of the season, having played a part in three of Liverpool’s four goals.
“I missed the pen. At half-time I was like, ‘Do you want to leave for the national team with that performance?’ Not really! So I had to really focus, step up and make the difference, and I managed to do so.” – Mohamed Salah
Salah had tapped home the Reds’ opener and brilliantly teed up Cody Gakpo (£7.2m) before exorcising some demons with a converted 86th-minute spot-kick, finishing with a 16-point haul.
The Egyptian winger now links up with his country for the delayed AFCON 2023 in Cote d’Ivoire, where he could remain for up to six weeks – the equivalent of four Gameweeks in FPL.
AN UNEXPECTED RECORD
Newcastle’s recent wobbly defensive performances had made this fixture look more favourable from Liverpool’s perspective but not many of us would have anticipated the extent of the bombardment that followed.
The hosts’ total of 34 shots was their highest in a league match in over six years.
Newcastle, meanwhile, had the sixth-best defence for expected goals conceded (xGC) before kick-off. After 90 minutes at Anfield, they now have the sixth-worst record.
Nine big chances were created by Jurgen Klopp’s side as they racked up a record-breaking 7.27 xG.
“I didn’t have to look at the stats because I saw it [in the game], it was really special. It was [Martin] Dubravka but it was ourselves as well. There were moments where we forced it, when the technique was not great, but then there were moments when Dubravka had a top save as well. We scored twice [where] we squared the ball and put it in the empty goal. We didn’t stop, that’s the most important thing.” – Jurgen Klopp
DARWIN FAILS TO EVOLVE
But it was an altogether more predictable story for Darwin Nunez (£7.4m), who missed three big chances – all of them saved by the inspired Martin Dubravka (£4.2m) – and who failed to score with any of his eight shots.
Only Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) has underachieved more on the xG front this season, with Darwin -3.62 goals behind his expected output.
Klopp again leaped to the Uruguayan striker’s defence, pointing out his unselfish assist for the game’s opener.
“When we talk about Mo and again two goals, and Darwin [Nunez] didn’t score – but, to be honest, the situation that brought the game in the right direction was the first goal of Mo, when Darwin squares that ball. I would say everybody in the stadium would have tried to hammer that ball through the goalie just to make it happen. He squares that ball – incredible.” – Jurgen Klopp
Liverpool’s two other spurned big chances came back to back, with Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) ballooning over a close-range rebound from Salah’s saved penalty. This was the first match in which Alexander-Arnold had failed to return an attacking return, clean sheet or bonus point since Gameweek 11.
The right-back was booked for the fifth time this season but there’ll be no one-match ban as the threshold was raised to 10 yellow cards after Liverpool’s 19th league fixture on Boxing Day.
AGEING DUB PROVIDES FOUNDATION
For Newcastle, it’s not just the results but also the underlying defensive numbers that are providing concern at present.
An xGC of 19.67 in the last six Gameweeks is more than what Arsenal and Manchester City have allowed in the whole of 2023/24.
Injuries and an unsettled side haven’t helped. Newcastle have only been able to start their first-choice back four together on six occasions this season, and just once since Gameweek 6.
Whether you accept the mitigation or not, a clash against the Magpies is clearly no longer a formidable test for opposition attacks at present – and it’s Manchester City and Aston Villa up next.
Dubravka at least emerged from this game with a lot of credit, producing a timely performance that may persuade Howe against the idea of bolstering his goalkeeping options in the January transfer window.
The 34-year-old Slovakia international made 10 stops in all, keeping the Reds at bay as best he could and limiting the damage.
“He was magnificent tonight. Obviously, the penalty save, a lot of other big moments for us. He really stood up and showed what a great goalkeeper he is.
“He’s an outstanding player and he showed tonight what a good goalkeeper he is because some of those saves were of the highest level – especially the penalty save, which was a big moment for us.
“He distributes the ball well, as well, so we’re very, very pleased with him. That would do him the world of good.” – Eddie Howe on Martin Dubravka
It’s not all bad: Newcastle are six goals up on where they were at this stage last season.
Anthony Gordon (£6.1m) and Alexander Isak (£7.4m) kept their impressive points-per-start averages up (4.7 and 5.4 respectively) by combining for Newcastle’s first goal before Sven Botman (£4.5m) nodded in a late corner.
TRIPPIER + WILSON INJURY LATEST
Newcastle were without Kieran Trippier (£6.8m) and Callum Wilson (£7.8m) for this match thanks to groin and calf injuries respectively.
The extent of Trippier’s problem isn’t known yet but Wilson now looks like he will miss out in Gameweek 21, as well as this weekend’s Tyne-Wear cup derby.
“Both injuries picked up against Nottingham Forest.
“Kieran’s got a groin problem, we’re unsure how serious it is. We hope we can get him back pretty quickly.
“Callum will be missing the next two games.” – Eddie Howe
Liverpool, who recovered Alexis Mac Allister (£5.8m) for this game, suffered their own fresh injury scare when Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.1m) limped off just after the hour mark.
“We wanted to take him off, that was the plan, but unfortunately it was somehow a minute late because in the last situation he felt the hamstring.
“Now we don’t know the extent of it, obviously, so we have to wait.” – Jurgen Klopp on Dominik Szoboszlai
