Seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar takes his usual weekly FPL Q&A, answering questions on Erling Haaland v Carlton Morris, chip conundrums and best defenders.
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Q. Sell Haaland to Morris for a hit? No Free Hit in Gameweek 29.
(via @AjdinMedic)
A: For those looking to go chipless in Gameweek 29, this is really the big question of the week. On paper, Carlton Morris (£5.2m) has three fixtures compared to just one for Erling Haaland (£14.5m). It’s not just quantity, either: the quality of fixtures has to be factored in, with Liverpool very strong at Anfield and Luton Town having three winnable games.
It’s obviously not so simple, though. Liverpool could potentially be without Ibrahima Konate (£4.9m) and are already without Alisson (£5.8m) in goal, though Caoimhin Kelleher (£3.7m) has shown himself to be an able deputy. Most of Luton’s goals have come at Kenilworth Road and you really cannot write off the possibility of a Haaland haul against any opposition.
If you make that move, I guess you go without Haaland in Gameweek 30, as well, when Manchester City play Arsenal. The cash saving from the transfer will likely allow you to buy Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) that week, something most people who used the Free Hit in Gameweek 29 will struggle to do without a hit. You could of course use your Wildcard or a free transfer to buy the Norwegian back.
Morris’s numbers have been excellent over the last few weeks and without Elijah Adebayo (£4.9m) in the side, he is getting more chances. I think it depends on your risk appetite. From what I can tell, a significant majority of the game is Free Hitting in Gameweek 29, which means that Haaland’s effective ownership is still likely to be close to 100% or even above. So a big haul from the Norwegian would mean a huge rank drop, especially if Morris underwhelms. Morris is likely to be part of many Free Hit Gameweek 29 teams, as well, so you are only getting the major rank gain from him this week. I think the home fixture against Nottingham Forest is actually the best one of the next three. Of course, this is not factoring in the possible gains from using a Free Hit chip later in the season, which is difficult to quantify right now with so much uncertainty.
It’s a move I’m considering for my team, as I have pretty much committed to going chipless in Gameweek 29. The thought of a Haaland hat-trick terrifies me. I am currently just around the top 50k and getting this wrong has the potential to move me outside 100k, which could really derail my season. I will probably make the move for a hit but will need to be mentally prepared to wait for a few weeks for the gains to really materialise.
On the flip side, let’s say you keep Haaland and still choose not to Free Hit next week. This will mean you will likely part with one of your midfielders, Bukayo Saka (£9.2m) or Phil Foden (£8.2m), in Gameweek 29 or go with fewer players. This is also reasonable with Saka away to Man City in Gameweek 30, so you could get James Maddison (£7.9m) for Saka and move the -4 hit to Gameweek 29 instead. Maddison outscoring Saka by four points in Gameweeks 29 and 30 seems likely.
It will make getting Salah in Gameweek 30 quite difficult, though, unless you go for someone cheap instead over Maddison. Saka can be Wildcarded back in for Gamweek 31.
It’s something I need to think about and it’s a move I will likely leave till very late.
Q: Would you sell Haaland for Solanke for a hit and put the armband on him?
(via CORGZ DARK SIDE OF THE LOON)
A: I think this is a move I would do without as much trepidation as the Morris one.
Dominic Solanke (£7.2m) plays the two teams with the worst expected goals conceded (xGC) figures in the league. I know we mentioned on the podcast that Bournemouth’s numbers away are significantly better but they are yet to play the two worst defensive teams at home. The xG numbers for the Cherries could be very different after these two fixtures and let’s face it, Solanke is not an Emmanuel Dennis. He is a good FPL pick who is capable of a haul on his day and with two bites of the Cherry (pun intended) against two of the worst teams, he’s a buy and an easy captain.
I do wonder who else you have in your side who you are keeping over Haaland. I guess you are saving your Free Hit in Gameweek 29 and have someone like Ivan Toney (£8.1m) as the third forward.
Q: I currently don’t have Solanke and plan not to Free Hit in Gameweek 29. Should I buy Morris instead of Solanke?
(via @Rodzicsky7)
A: As mentioned above, Solanke is easily the best pick for Gameweek 28 and you should not go without him, even if it means transferring him out for a hit again in Gameweek 29. Buy Solanke over Morris and stick the armband on him, no question in my mind.
Anything can happen in terms of actual results but on paper, the two players are not really comparable this week. Even though they have similar stats, the difference in the quality of opposition they are facing is stark.
Q: How many hits for how many players are worth it to save the Free Hit in 29?
(via @FPL_Gazza2000)
A: As mentioned in last week’s Q&A, getting the right attackers in place for Gameweek 29 is more important than the sheer quantity of players. The clean sheet odds look slim for that week and the key attackers to own in my opinion are Ollie Watkins (£9.0m), Toney, maybe Morris, Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m), Son Heung-min (£9.8m) and Maddison.
I think if you can get in five or six of these players, you will not lose significant points to the field that is Free Hitting in Gameweek 29.
Q: For Free Hit peeps in Gameweek 29 – who to prioritize for defence? Alfie Doughty or Illia Zabarnyi?
(via @StoryStefan)
A: Despite Alfie Doughty’s (£4.7m) upside, I think you get a Bournemouth defender, Illia Zabarnyi (£4.4m) or Milos Kerkez (£4.4m), if you are Free Hitting in Gameweek 29. Bournemouth’s clean sheet potential over the two games in the double is miles better than Luton’s, and the fixtures after Gameweek 29 are quite good for the Cherries. That’s not the case with Rob Edwards’ side.
Q: If I am not Free Hitting in Gameweek 29, which cheap defender should I buy to replace Marcos Senesi: Antonee Robinson, Micky van der Ven, Illia Zabarnyi or Sergio Reguilon?
(via COJONES OF DESTINY)
A: I think it would have to be Sergio Reguilon (£4.4m). The Gameweek 29 fixture is quite good and even the schedule on the other side of the break looks decent, with two home matches following immediately.
The left-back is constantly in the box, taking a lot of set pieces and has been unlucky not to find the back of the net over the last few matches. The ceiling is quite high and I think he is easily my preferred pick, especially if you already have Doughty.
Q: Chip question: is it Triple Captain time? I could also save for Gameweek 34 or 37 as I’ve already used Bench Boost and could use the chip on a doubler in one of those where I’m not Free Hitting.
(via FP ELEPHANT)
A: Just looking at the xGC numbers, goal projections, bookies odds etc, I think putting the Triple Captain on Solanke this week is as good as you are going to get all season. The only slight concern is the injury he’s playing through but after another week of recovery and training, he should be sharper than he was at Turf Moor.
We still don’t know how the doubles will land and what teams will be motivated by Gameweek 37 etc so just attack what’s in front of you. Triple Captaincy on Solanke is a go.
The only situation I can see where you don’t do it is if you are significantly behind in your mini-leagues and need a 50/60-point clawback in the field. Then you have to go for a rogue pick later on in the season and hope you get a De Bruyne-style 90-pointer.
Q: Would you sell Foden for Son if Free Hitting in Gameweek 29?
(via FPL VIRGIN)
A: I would not sell Foden in his current form and with the central role he is playing. There’s big potential for points there, even against Liverpool and Arsenal.
We discussed these questions and a lot more along with Wildcard timings on this week’s The FPL Wire Pod. You can check it out below:
