Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers provide Fantasy Premier League (FPL) tips and advice throughout the season. Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser offers a few last-minute thoughts on Gameweek 29.
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A very high percentage of Fantasy Premier League managers have deployed the Free Hit chip this week. Many teams are quite template, not helped of course by the shortage of fixtures.
In this article, I’ll give my general opinion on Free Hits, talking about the games in play and where I’d be tempted to take the template on.
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
First and foremost, amend your expectations when thinking about deploying the Free Hit chip.
When it comes to predicting the outcomes in a single Gameweek, especially when all the games on paper are slightly difficult to call, it can be quite random.
Obviously, we can put the odds in our favour by focusing on the small margins. But my point is to just make sure you are realistic as to what to expect in a standalone round of fixtures.
So, what are the small margins you talk about when on a Free Hit?
SMALL MARGINS
Outside of how you see the match-ups playing out, small margins like penalty takers and set-piece takers may count in your favour. They often add up and while I’ve been slightly guilty of ignoring penalty takers, I do think they are a free bonus that we need to pay closer attention to.
We know that Burnley are notoriously poor on set plays, which adds weight to the likes of Sergio Regulion (£4.4m) and Ivan Toney (£8.2m). I would not be surprised to see a headed set piece assist from Toney in such a game.
Nottingham Forest have conceded the most number of goals from set pieces this season, which is a feather in the cap for the likes of Alfie Doughty (£4.7m) and Carlton Morris (£5.2m). I believe that Luton Town are genuinely good at dead-ball situations and Doughty’s delivery is very accurate. We know he has the volume of chances created so I do like the match-up there, especially since the Hatters are at home.
WISSA THE DIFFERENTIAL
One differential I have a big gut feeling on is Yoane Wissa (£5.6m).
I see a lot of FPL managers doubling up on Brentford’s defence but I’m not quite convinced about them at the back, given the plethora of injuries they have. Christian Norgaard (£5.3m), whose influence is big in midfield, is injured as well.
I feel like Brentford are perfectly suited to play a team like Burnley, who will dominate the ball. Wissa has been doing a lot more predatory centre-forward work than Toney of late (you do need to take into consideration that his last two matches were against Chelsea and Arsenal). A lot more graft has been required by Toney, who is so good at holding up the play and incisive with his passing.
Just have a look at the images below (Toney on the left, Wissa on the right):
Both the touch heatmap (top) as well as the shotmap (bottom) in the last two games show that Wissa has generally been more advanced. That said, I would definitely not ignore Toney on a Free Hit as penalties and set pieces (especially against Burnley) count for something.
However, I would very much be happy to double up on Brentford’s attack with Wissa on a Free Hit. I just rate him as a finisher and think he has ‘brace potential’.
DON’T TAKE ON…
The players I would definitely not ‘take on’ if on a Free Hit are Son Heung-min (£10.0m) and Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m). They are template for a reason and have incredible goalscoring pedigree.
I would be tempted to punt on an Aston Villa defender or goalkeeper because West Ham are a little Jekyll and Hyde. I think it is largely being overlooked in Free Hit drafts this week. Only Bernd Leno (£4.8m) has more bonus points than Emiliano Martinez (£5.3m) this season and you would very much fancy him to also luck out and save a penalty given his, uhm, antics.
IF YOU’RE NOT ON A FREE HIT
For those like me who are potentially not on a Free Hit, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham players appeal as players to target as they have a decent match in Gameweek 29 as well as enticing fixtures in Gameweek 30 and beyond. In general, these two teams also have good FPL assets on paper, so that is where I would spend my transfers.
That is all from me this week. If you want more, Zophar and I discussed the four games in detail on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire, which you can view below:
