In the latest article from our team of Hall of Famers and guest contributors, reigning worldwide champion Ali (FPL Gunz) looks at differential picks from four clubs in the run-in.
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It’s differentials time.
With eight Gameweeks left to go in a very interesting FPL season, even conservative managers are looking for spicy low-owned gems to gain ground over their rivals.
Some of us may have lost hope of reaching our initial goals and aspirations but it is never too late to squeeze some enjoyment out of the game in the final stretch.
There is no better feeling when your differential returns big points, so this article will help to scout a few hidden gems for the remaining fixtures. Hopefully, I’m not stepping on Tom’s toes too much here!
Here, I’m only looking at four teams without domestic cup fixtures down the road. Three of them are also not in Europe. Hopefully, this will mean less significant rotation in their squads.
I’m also not restricting myself under 5% ownership, as is the case with Spot the Differential.
NEWCASTLE UNITED
Newcastle United have only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 games, which pretty much scares everyone off recruiting their defensive assets. A long list of injured players at the back, including Kieran Trippier (£6.7m), Sven Botman (£4.5m), Tino Livramento (£4.1m) and Jamaal Lascelles (£3.9m), suggests the improvement on that front might not come soon, despite some favourable fixtures.
On the other hand, their attack continues to impress. They have also been hit with injuries in their frontline lately but they have failed to score only once in their last 15 games, averaging two goals per match.
Above: Newcastle United have scored as many goals as Manchester City this season
Having impressed coming off the bench, Harvey Barnes (£6.2m) is only 1.1% owned. In the absence of the injured Miguel Almiron (£6.0m) and the suspended Anthony Gordon (£6.0m), he is likely to start in Gameweek 31 and maybe even the matches beyond it. Even when Gordon comes back into the starting lineup, Barnes has very little competition – only Jacob Murphy (£4.8m), if Almiron is out for any length of time.
Above: Midfielders sorted by goals per 90 minutes this season
Alexander Isak (£7.7m) is more nailed in the absence of Callum Wilson (£7.8m). He is a bit more widely owned but with a great run of fixtures, could still prove great value.
BRENTFORD
Still under 10% ownership, Ivan Toney (£8.1m) looked very good at the weekend against Manchester United. He could and arguably should have scored have bagged a lot more than just assist points. Nailed, talismanic, on penalties, playing for an attacking team that needs points to feel safe… these are the exact attributes managers seek in their FPL assets. He’s also got a Euro 2024 squad place to be sealed, so motivation is high.
Forgotten man Bryan Mbeumo (£6.7m) is back fit and ready to feature with only 6% ownership. Many of these will be dead teams, too. Toney’s presence in the box could really benefit Mbeumo’s output despite taking penalty-taking duties off him.
- READ MORE: Mbeumo ready to start, Thomas Frank says
Above: Bryan Mbeumo was second for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) in the first 14 Gameweeks. He was injured in the very next match.
A sea of blue fixtures could be the catalyst in the turnaround of Brentford’s season as they have played tough opposition of late.
There’s no Double Gameweek to look forward to but few, if any, other teams have as good a run of fixtures as this, especially after Gameweek 32. How many times do we implore ourselves not to get tunnel vision with the ‘doubles’?
WEST HAM UNITED
West Ham seem a different team from what we saw in the first half of the season. A bit like Newcastle, their defence leaves much to be desired but their attack impresses. The well-documented ‘Paqueta effect’ is writ large in these numbers:
| with Paqueta in XI | without Paqueta in XI | |
| Games | 23 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 44 | 5 |
Despite European involvement, Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m) has proven to be a nailed and worthy FPL asset. The next four games are very promising in terms of attacking potential, if you are happy to bet against template pick Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m).
Kudus, interestingly, narrowly beats Bowen for attacking returns per 90 minutes this season (0.70 v 0.66)
Despite only playing around 65 minutes in each of his last games, Michail Antonio (£5.7m) – owned by less than 2% – managed to score in both games.
The two-legged UEFA Europa League tie against Leverkusen is something worth bearing in mind. That occurs either side of Gameweek 33. With how dominant Xabi Alonso’s side have been this season, however, there’s every chance that the Hammers will be quickly switching their attention back to domestic matters.
FULHAM
Fulham have scored 18 goals in their last eight games and Rodrigo Muniz (£4.7m) has been involved in 11 of them. He is still under 10% owned and Fulham seem to be flourishing without the pressure to perform.
Their schedule is decent until the end of the season, considering Muniz is a great budget enabler and very easy to bench for the tough fixtures.
Those tricky matches happen to fall in Double Gameweeks 34 and 37, too. So, anyone playing their Wildcard now and Free Hit in Gameweek 34 has five attractive fixtures in a row before a possible hopping-off point.
With his red-hot form, it is hard to assume he gets benched for Raul Jimenez (£5.0m) or Armando Broja (£4.9m) any time soon.
FINAL THOUGHTS
There is no right or wrong way of playing FPL but trying to nail the right differential is a high-risk, high rewards game. Differentials and template players are labeled as such for a reason. Those at my rank, which is around 1m, have absolutely nothing to lose and there is no point in playing ‘template’.
For those managers, I would suggest trying to differentiate your teams from the crowd in any given opportunity. This applies to chip strategies, as well captaincy picks every Gameweek. Template points will result in a small green arrow, possibly, but not enough to affect your standing in a meaningfully positive way.
Many managers have already used their Free Hit chips, so using it in Gameweek 34 or 37 will very likely boost your rank. But the most important chip in our locker is the Wildcard. It is crucial to time it well because it usually affects your team in the long run, rather than a one Gameweek gain such as the Free Hit and Bench Boost.
Good luck with the end of the season!
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