Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers provide Fantasy Premier League (FPL) tips and advice all year long. Here, two-time Indian FPL champion Lateriser pinpoints a few lessons from 2023/24 to take into next season.
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The curtain is about to fall on another Fantasy Premier League season. Before the campaign ends, I thought I’d list a few lessons I want to keep in mind for next season.
2023/24: A MORE ENJOYABLE SEASON?
Despite not having a good 2023/24, I’ve really enjoyed playing FPL a lot more than I did in the previous season. Then, there were two main things that really curbed my enjoyment of the game.
I found myself very confused in terms of whether I was listening to my own instinct or whether I was going off the instinct of people I was regularly having conversations with. I wanted to get back to doing my own research, writing notes and being responsible for my own decisions.
It might not be the same for you but I’ve found that once I take full ownership of my decisions, there’s a lot less frustration if things don’t go my way – primarily because there’s little to no regret. I find it a lot easier to deal with ‘bad outcomes’, and poor decisions, if I make them alone. I struggle a lot more with bad outcomes when decisions are made against my own instincts.
But there is a fine line and, obviously, I want to do well in FPL. So if you’re going to trust yourself a lot more with decisions then honing in, reflecting and evolving your process becomes much more important. Now, processes and the manner of playing FPL are subjective to different managers so I will leave that to you.
Another thing that I didn’t enjoy about 2022/23 was finding myself chained by fixture chess. Last season was not fun, especially from around Gameweek 25, because the pool of players you could pick from was very, very limited. Even though you wanted to select players that had merit, you couldn’t because of blanks and doubles. I found that to be very constrictive. In that aspect, I’ve found that this season has been a lot more freeing. Or at least, that is what I’ve told myself.
If we’re spending the best part of a year playing this game, it’s important that we do whatever we can to maximise fun from it. Of course, fun is often related to doing well and one isn’t independent of the other.
WHEN MY SEASON DERAILED – AND WHY
I absolutely got beat by going against Bukayo Saka (£9.0m) and Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) at the turn of the year.
This period between Gameweek 21 to 26 exponentially derailed the season. I never really recovered.
Saka was on a dry run, blanking between Gameweek 16 and 19. But, as you can see below, Saka and Watkins were top scorers for FPL points between Gameweeks 21 and 26. This, combined with their high effective ownership, absolutely murdered my rank.
Above: Players sorted by points from Gameweeks 21 and 26
Now, there are a couple of things that happened at that point that are definite lessons to learn from.
Just before I made the transfer out, I did a podcast with my fellow Pro Pundit Pras where I pointed out that Saka’s underlying numbers were actually improving again. So, there were signs of a definite uptick in form.
The problem was the ‘predetermination’ of my moves. In my head, I had for a while decided that Saka wasn’t a good pick. While there was objective proof that underlying numbers were increasing for him, I decided to ignore it.
There was another reason for the predetermination and that was getting sucked in by Kevin De Bruyne’s (£10.5m) double in Gameweek 25. This meant a Saka-sized compromise. I got reeled in by De Bruyne’s 21-minute cameo against Newcastle United, where he got a goal and assist, and made some errors of judgement.
I didn’t correctly assess De Bruyne’s expected minutes and form in the next few games by not taking into consideration that he was just about returning from a really big injury. It might sound basic but I want to write down that when it comes to players returning from big injuries, we need to tread carefully with them and it isn’t necessary at all to jump on them early. This is something we’ve seen time and again with the likes of De Bruyne, as well as Erling Haaland (£14.2m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.4m) this season.
I need to revisit my decisions when new data presents itself and not be attached to predetermined ideas. Being flexible and objective in decision-making in this game is a huge strength which I need to get back. At such times, talking it out to a trusted FPL friend (as long as you are open-minded) should help. Promise to be honest and objective to yourself. Don’t necessarily curb your instincts; it’s just sometimes okay to change your mind during the course of the week.
PENALTIES + FINISHING ABILITY
Other things I want to overvalue next season are penalties and finishing ability. Not doing so has been a definite weakness in my game.
I have long fallen into the trap of incredibly attractive underlying data when it comes to the likes of Darwin Nunez (£7.5m) and Chelsea-era Timo Werner (£6.3m). While it is okay to go for them as picks, I need to weigh in historical underlying data such as conversion rates and xG under/overperformance. The idea to put these down is to reflect on my own weaknesses and improve as an FPL player next season.
These are the numbers for some of the FPL players in 2023/24 when it comes to penalties scored.
- Palmer: 9
- Haaland: 6
- Saka: 6
- Isak: 5
- Salah: 5
- Fernandes: 4
Even if you presume that, on average, these players should get five penalties a season, that is a significant 14% chance of getting a penalty every game, which is a very high number. These are just free points on offer that I need to start weighing in when making my decisions.
Again, you might think this is obvious but I’m just zero-ing this in my head so I don’t repeat the same mistakes next season.
It isn’t all doom and gloom, though. After Sunday’s matches, I am sitting at 237k. This might seem poor but I was down at 753k in Gameweek 33, so there has been some consolidation in the last three Gameweeks.
It might be a good idea to reflect on your own season, both strengths and weaknesses, before you switch off. It definitely helps. It’s something I have actively avoided most years but that is probably a mistake.
Here’s wishing you a good run-in for the season. Good luck!
