In the latest article from our team of Hall of Famers and guest contributors, Lateriser compares the scoring trends of big hitters to see if Erling Haaland should always be the default captaincy candidate during 2024/25.
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So the majority of us have been captaining Erling Haaland, for the most part. But there’s already a big question emerging for 2024/25: can we take the Norwegian on, or is he simply untouchable?
As things stand, there aren’t many challengers to his mantle. Mohamed Salah will have turned 32 by Gameweek 1, without the superpowers of Jurgen Klopp. Then there’s Son Heung-min, who looked visibly older and slower in the final part of the season.
Some hope comes from ‘Cold’ Palmer but we have no idea what Chelsea will be up to, given how keen they have already been in the transfer market. It’s way too early to guess how the big hitters will square off next season but let’s see whether we can take Haaland on when it comes to the armband.
THE KOLAROV, THE LESCOTT + THE BRAMBLE
Some of you will be familiar with the table below but – for those who aren’t – I create these to explore how our big hitters perform versus adversaries of different calibres, in an attempt to identify trends.
Basically, I’ve organised the opposition into three groups based on their expected goals conceded (xGC) stats: ‘Kolarov’ for the best six, ‘Lescott’ for the next six and ‘Bramble’ for the worst eight.
This time, I’ve also done a home/away split.
Of course, we don’t really know how these defences will perform next season but this is as objective as I could get when comparing how top names perform.
Using our Members Area, I was able to filter some points per start data.
The first thing that jumps out to me is Haaland’s poor points per start numbers against the Kolarov and Lescott teams. If he’s up against good centre-backs, there is definitely some scope to take him on in regards to captaincy.
However, the Manchester City forward is a flat-track bully during easier games against bottom-half opposition. You’d really need to be careful when looking elsewhere. Another interesting point is that there’s not much difference in Haaland’s home and away points, so you don’t need to worry about him against weaker rivals, regardless of the venue.
Haaland’s eight double-digit hauls came in the following games:
| HOME: | Fulham, Everton, Luton Town, Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| AWAY: | Burnley, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur |
While his nine blanks (of more than 45 minutes) arrived against:
| HOME: | Newcastle United, Chelsea, Arsenal, West Ham United |
| AWAY: | Wolverhampton Wanderers, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Fulham |
Notably, he failed both times against Arsenal, plus once at Liverpool, which is in sync with him not really being a ‘big match’ player. Furthermore, each of his double-digit hauls were on occasions where you’d expect him to do well versus weak defences.
But, to play devil’s advocate, it might be worth noting that Haaland has seemingly been carrying a knock all season and hasn’t been the same player since supposedly returning from injury. Therefore you should definitely own him whilst also considering alternative captains when he’s about to face a tough opponent.
PALMER POTENTIAL
One asset to talk about here is Chelsea’s Palmer. His points per start when facing Bramble sides (10.1) and being at home (10.8) are comfortably the best in class. Staggering numbers, really.
When I’m watching, it always feels like everything he does is relevant to FPL. We might have an heir apparent for Salah, as he’s matching and bettering Haaland’s numbers against all kinds of opposition – especially at Stamford Bridge.
Yes, Palmer had an absurdly high number of penalties this season. Not only that, defenders will be more aware of his threat next time, doing everything they can to stop him. But, to counter that, it’s worth noting that Palmer is just 22 years old and might still be far from the peak of his powers.
Such a ‘swerve’ captaincy has plenty of potential but it now depends on how the new Chelsea manager uses him. When talking about Palmer, I like referring to something my good friend Baker says:
“He seems like he has the guile of Ozil and the power of Harry Kane.”
He’s had a truly incredible breakthrough campaign and I’m excited to see how much further he develops.
OTHER CANDIDATES
Another asset that reliably succeeded against Bramble opposition (7.5 points per start) was Alexander Isak, especially when at home (7.8).
Newcastle will be without European football next season, which makes their players a lot more attractive in FPL. Though team-mate Callum Wilson provides a slight caveat. Should the latter both stay and remain fit, minutes may be shared.
A few other bits from this data stand out to me:
- Haaland has the highest away points per start among all players.
- Salah does very well in big games against Kolarov and Lescott teams, as he’s their outlet on counter-attacks. His home numbers are also the second-best but the Klopp-less future might be different.
- Kai Havertz fares poorly against Kolarov rivals, with colleague Bukayo Saka fairly consistent in these situations and good against Bramble opposition. He performs better when away from home.
- Whereas Ollie Watkins isn’t reliable when facing the poorer Bramble sides.
- Like Salah, Son is a counter outlet and hence is one of the best performers versus Kolarov foes.
Anyway, that’s all from me this week, I hope you enjoyed reading this article. Meanwhile, in my long season review pod with fellow Pro Pundits Zophar and Pras, we talk about the lessons we’ve learnt and set some markers for the next campaign.
