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Why Haaland’s form isn’t down to luck

Over the summer Fantasy Football Scout entered into partnership with StatsBomb who, like Opta, provide statistics for football matches. 

Championed by many in the analytics community, the reason we decided to team up with StatsBomb is that they provide the most granular event data on the market. 

From player and defender locations on every shot to pressures, shot height and shot velocity, StatsBomb collects more data points from matches.

This extra context makes their expected goals (xG) model the most accurate and realistic available.

Most Premier League teams, including data pioneers Liverpool, use StatsBomb to help inform player recruitment and team performance.

And Premium Members can now access this data through a series of tables in our Members Area

This article will take a look at some of the insights we can gain from those tables. 

What makes Haaland essential?

Earling Haaland’s (£15.3m) finishing has been outstanding this season. 

With goals like his third versus Ipswich Town, he’s transformed low-quality chances into good goalscoring opportunities. 

The StatsBomb Shots table illustrates this. 

His nine non-penalty goals had an xG value of 4.36, but taking into account his clinical finishing ability he’s registered 8.21 post-shot xG. 

Expected goals (xG) factors in everything up to the moment of the shot but tells us nothing about the shot itself. In essence, it measures the quality of the chance presented to the player. 

Post-shot xG, on the other hand, measures the quality of the shot

It tells us that when it comes to shot execution, not only has Haaland made the most of the chances that have come his way, but his over-performance is not as great as xG alone would have us believe. 

StatsBomb Shots table from the Fantasy Football Scout members area, sorted by Shot Execution

StatsBomb Shots table sorted by “Shot Execution (Post-Shot xG minus xG)”
(click to expand)

Indeed, the 3.84 xG he’s added to his shots is more than double that of any other player.

It’s also notable that Mohamed Salah’s (£12.8m) smaller xG over-performance can be explained by the quality of his shooting. His three goals match his 3.00 post-shot xG exactly.

Why does this matter?

Well, it tells us that Haaland’s xG over-performance is less about luck, such as goalkeeper or defender errors, and can be attributed to shot execution. If he keeps shooting this well you’d expect him to sustain this level of output, as crazy as that sounds.

Fortunate Finishers

For players such as Jhon Duran (£6.1m), Harvey Barnes (£6.5m) and even Luis Diaz (£7.9m), however, there’s a greater degree of good fortune to their goalscoring.

StatsBomb Shots table from the Fantasy Football Scout members area showing post-shot xG over-performance

StatsBomb Shots table sorted by “Post-Shot xG Delta (Goals minus Post-Shot xG)”
(click to expand)

Duran has scored 2.19 more goals than his xG would suggest but, despite his rocket against Everton, the goalkeepers and defenders should have done better with those efforts. A 1.75 post-shot xG score is, in fact, lower than his xG total.

And while his international team-mate Diaz has added value to his shooting opportunities, converting 2.85 xG into 3.68 post-shot xG, he’s still scored above expectations.

As Tom pointed out in his analysis on Diaz, high-quality opportunities, Opta-defined “big chances”, have underpinned the Colombian’s upturn in form this season. 

Looking at the data available to the editorial team, that’s reflected in the StatsBomb numbers as well. 

StatsBomb Luis Diaz xG shot buckets 2024/25 season

Grouping shots into buckets, Luis Diaz has converted five of his six chances rated at 0.2 xG or above.

Although it’s a small sample size, the distribution of better quality opportunities is evident compared to last season, where the majority of his efforts were much lower quality. 

Notably, none of the 48 shots he had below 0.1 xG resulted in goals.

StatsBomb Luis Diaz xG shot buckets 2023/24 season

An increase in his xG per shot from 0.12 to 0.22 has helped fuel his explosive start to the new campaign, and a little luck hasn’t gone amiss either.

Under pressure

For those on a Gameweek 6 Wildcard trying to decide what to do with Liverpool players, the serious injury to Yerson Mosquera (£4.0m) means Wolves will be without one of their best performers this season. 

No defender has more successful pressure regains than the young Colombian. According to the StatsBomb Pressures table, the cut-price defender has 27 pressure regains, which means Wolves won back possession 27 times within five seconds of Mosquera pressurising an opponent.

StatsBomb Pressures table from the Fantasy Football Scout members area, sorted by Pressure Regains

StatsBomb Pressures table sorted by “Pressure Regains”
(click to expand)

A “Pressure” is when a player applies pressure within 4-5 yards of an opposing player in possession of the ball.

Research by StatsBomb revealed that a significantly higher proportion of goals are scored in the absence of pressure than under pressure. From a sample of 46,829 shots, 14 per cent with no pressure applied resulted in goals compared to just seven per cent of shots under pressure.

PressureNo Pressure
Goal Conversion Rate0.070.14

Mosquera could be sorely missed in other words.

Under the hood

Before we finish, let’s take a deeper look at what goes into StatsBomb’s xG and post-shot xG models.

Starting with their Freeze Frames, we’ll examine that third goal of Haaland’s versus Ipswich as an example.

StatsBomb Freeze Frame Pitch View Haaland v Ipswich

Freeze Frames record the precise defender and goalkeeper locations for all shots. This means StatsBomb can measure things, such as defensive pressure, known to have an impact on the outcome of those chances.

Here’s how the “freeze frame” of that shot looked on video.

Haaland's third goal v Ipswich Town, video still

StatsBomb’s Freeze Frames also feature a ‘Keeper Cone’ – a triangle drawn between the shot taker and the goalposts to highlight the amount of goal the shot-taker is able to see. Including the proportion of the goalface blocked by the defenders.

StatsBomb Freeze Frame Keeper Cone Haaland v Ipswich

Another feature unique to StatsBomb is Shot Impact Height. This is the height of the ball when a shot is struck. Essentially, ground shots are more likely to result in a goal compared to shots around waist height because the technique required is much easier to execute.

These factors and others, such as distance and angle, estimate that Haaland’s shooting opportunity would result in a goal about three per cent of the time (0.03 xG). 

But when we include shot placement and shot velocity, the post-shot xG model revises that estimation up to 42 per cent.

StatsBomb Freeze Frame Goal Face Haaland v Ipswich

Shot Placement & Velocity

We can estimate the goalscoring likelihood if the shot was placed anywhere along the goal face. This can inform us on whether the shot placement was optimal, or how far off optimality a particular shot was. In simple cases, this may be obvious since shooting towards the corner of the goal furthest from the goalkeeper is the optimal shot, but becomes non-trivial if there are defenders blocking that shot path.

StatsBomb on the importance of shot placement

While the amount of the goal the player can see helps to determine the best place to put the ball, the probability of scoring increases the harder the shot is struck. As this GIF below illustrates. 

A more accurate picture

One final note — and why we prefer StatsBomb post-shot xG to Opta’s equivalent metric, Expected Goals On Target — is the inclusion of goalkeeper and defender positions.

While Opta upgraded their xG model in 2022 to include ‘keeper location and defensive pressure, it appears their post-shot xG model did not fully benefit from those changes.

It largely looks at where the shot ended up within the frame of the goal. Shots in the corners are given a higher value than shots down the middle. But what if there are defenders blocking the corners? Or what if it’s an open goal?

Take this strike by Gabriel Martinelli (£6.9) in Arsenal’s 4-2 win at Aston Villa in February last year. 

Goalkeeper Emi Martinez (£5.0m) has gone up for a corner kick and is stranded as Martinelli breaks away to slot the ball into an empty net.

Arsenal's fourth goal v Aston Villa scored by Martinelli, video still

Opta gave it an xG of 0.98 but their post-shot xG model rated it at 0.68.

It feels rather unkind to knock Martinelli’s finishing down by 0.3 xG simply because his shot ended up in the middle of the goal rather than in a corner.

StatsBomb Freeze Frame Pitch View Martinelli v Aston Villa

Happily, StatsBomb’s post-shot xG model doesn’t do that, rating the chance at 0.99 xG and the shot at 1.00 PSxG.

It’s this level of granular detail that makes StatsBomb’s expected goals models the best available.



TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside. Follow them on Twitter

364 Comments Post a Comment
  1. sergioaguero67
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 7 days ago

    Anyone fancy Palmer captain?
    I'm very tempted
    Please convince me otherwise :p

    1. JT11fc
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Owning him is enough of a differential I think, 1 player I wish I could get

      1. JT11fc
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Amongst engaged managers at least

    2. Waylander
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 7 days ago

      There;s at least 3 better choices this week. Haaland, Saka, Salah. I would even put Diaz above Palmer. Convinced?

  2. sundownwarriors
      1 month, 7 days ago

      Play Wood or Duran?

      1. The FPL Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Wood

      2. Holmes
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        always Wood

        1. sundownwarriors
            1 month, 7 days ago

            Cheers

        2. NZREDS
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          The kiwi

        3. Waylander
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Wood

      3. Al Pacho
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Verbruggen
        TAA Robinson Faes
        Salah diaz Palmer rogers ESR
        Haaland DCL

        Bench : Fab Pedro Nedel Johnson

        0.2 ITB, G2G? Need to take hits to get in Arsenal players, I’m stucked 🙁

        1. Waylander
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Faes to an Arsenal defender might be worth a -4 for the next 3 weeks. How many hits you have to take?

          1. Al Pacho
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 7 days ago

            At least -8 haha damn it

            1. Waylander
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 7 days ago

              Yeah not worth a -8. You could WC?

      4. Michelle Davin
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        A) Saliba and Solanke
        Or
        B)Digne and Haverz
        Thsnks

        1. Holmes
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Ummm... A presuming you have already got Gabriel.

        2. Waylander
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          What's the rest of the team?

          1. Michelle Davin
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 7 days ago

            Flekken
            Gabriel robinson greaves
            Saka rogers diaz mbeumo
            Haaland n jackson

            1. Waylander
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 7 days ago

              Probably A and you can bench Solanke this week. You are going to have a benching headache for your attackers eithger way.

              1. Michelle Davin
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 7 days ago

                Thanks mate

      5. Hits Central
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Would play Wood or Rogers ? Currently on Roger’s

        1. Holmes
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Never bench a penalty taker is my motto, so Wood for me.

        2. My heart goes Salalalalah
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Wood

        3. Waylander
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Rogers.

        4. AppleDunk
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Wood

      6. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Any reason why Greaves is more popular 4.0 than Tuanzebe? Seems the latter gets hooked at around 80' which means better chance of cleanie right?

        1. Holmes
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Greaves has been portrayed as more attacking and few weeks back, there was a chance that Ben Johnson would be starting instead of Tuanzebe.

          1. My heart goes Salalalalah
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 7 days ago

            Thanks Holmes

      7. jack88
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Locked

        Flekken
        Trent Gabriel aina
        Saka mbuemo semenyo diaz
        Haaland wood havertz

        Vlad rogers myko greaves

        Thoughts? Any changes needed?

        1. Waylander
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Play Rogers over Wood is my choice. Looks good though.

          1. jack88
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 7 days ago

            Or should i just play rogers every week, and downgrade semenyo to upgrade hav> watkins?

            1. NorCal Villan
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 7 days ago

              This

            2. Baps hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 6 days ago

              Probably

              1. Baps hunter
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 6 days ago

                But not yet. Havertz has a plum fixture.

      8. AppleDunk
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Folks on WC not going for Raya, who do you have at goal instead?

        1. Cojones of Destiny
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Flekken atmo

      9. Eze Really?
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Always a little lost with "benching headache".
        If one has more choices I think you are better off and a little safe against injuries and rotation.

        1. Waylander
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Always good to check out the predicted goals scored and clean sheet odds if you have a benching headache.

        2. AppleDunk
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          Injuries and rotations are real

      10. DavvaMC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Best up to 4.5M keeper.

        1. Sels
        2. Flekken
        3. Muric

        Thank

        1. Kiwivillan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 7 days ago

          213

      11. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        1 month, 7 days ago

        Best trio here? Currently have A and thinking of switching to B (-4) next week

        A) Porro, Salah & Watkins ->
        B) Lewis, Mbeumo & Haaland

      12. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 6 days ago

        Why Mbeumo is so difficult to write?

        I hate Sun, Polmer, Jakson, Salad etc... What's the problem?