Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 17. Topics include the best ways to replace Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.8m) and Matheus Cunha (£7.1m), plus a look at cheap midfielders that cost no more than £6.0m.
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Q: Who is the best Ait-Nouri replacement? I’m thinking of Antonee Robinson (£4.8m) or Daniel Munoz (£4.7m).
(via @AR_FPL147)
A: Munoz picked up his fifth yellow card against Brighton and Hove Albion, meaning he’s suspended for Gameweek 17. If you’re able to let somebody else play this week, I think he’s my favourite replacement, ahead of Robinson.
As you can see in the image below, no defender has a higher non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) than the Colombian over the last six matches, with an expected goals (xG) per shot that is monstrously high (0.22). This has come at the cost of some creativity, with his expected assists (xA) number of 0.19 being terrible but – with defender goals worth six points – he looks like absolute gold.
Robinson ranks seventh for NPxGI, despite some difficult fixtures. As he has a very minimal goal threat, we focus on his xA which comes fourth behind Lewis Hall (£4.6m), Ryan Manning (£4.3m) and Leif Davis (£4.5m).
Hall impressed with 15 weekend points but Newcastle United’s fixtures toughen up after this Ipswich Town trip. It’s Aston Villa, Manchester United and then Tottenham Hotspur.
Meanwhile, I can’t recommend Levi Colwill (£4.6m). The Chelsea defence still looks quite porous and he offers virtually no open-play attacking threat.
Q: If Cunha receives a suspension, is it better to grab a cheaper forward or downgrade Bryan Mbeumo (£7.6m) or Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) to accommodate a four-point Alexander Isak (£8.7m) hit?
Q: Best Cunha replacements at his price or cheaper?
(via Waylander and @alexwaterbaby)
A: I am penning this article on Monday – earlier than usual. At the time of writing, there has been no announcement yet of an FA charge for Cunha but it would be surprising if the Brazilian international does not receive some sort of reprimand for the unsavoury scenes at full-time.
The above image comes from an earlier Neale article and needs to be kept in mind when picking a replacement. We also need to consider the short turnarounds between Gameweeks 21 and 22.
Raul Jimenez (£5.5m) will likely be replaced by Rodrigo Muniz (£5.5m) in Fulham’s line-up for either Gameweek 18 or 19. It’s difficult to predict which one that’ll be – he might prefer to keep Jimenez for the Chelsea fixture and play Muniz in the ‘easier’ Bournemouth one, or vice versa.
Similarly, Nicolas Jackson (£8.2m) will likely start against Everton in Gameweek 17 but then, with Fulham quickly followed by Ipswich, you’d expect him to also miss one. Although Chelsea’s 95-hour and 99-hour turnarounds are quite generous.
Even someone like Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.2m) could see limited minutes in Gameweek 19, so the choices are slim. Evanilson (£6.1m) could stave off rotation but the Cherries’ high-intensity style makes me not so certain.
Therefore, Chris Wood (£6.6m) would be my top replacement for those cheaper. Nottingham Forest face Brentford, Everton, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton over the next six and he’s as nailed as they come.
However, Wood’s numbers aren’t great. When looking at leading NPxGI forwards over the last six matches, his 0.92 doesn’t even make the top 20.
Of those above Cunha, it certainly feels like Isak is the top pick. If you don’t already own him, I think the four-point hit to purchase him is the move.
Those with Isak could alternatively upgrade Cunha to Jackson. Whilst I think the Chelsea forward misses one of the next three – either due to rotation or yellow card accumulation – he’s a solid long-term pick. If you can stomach that sole absence, I think he’s a very good pick.
Elsewhere, Dominic Solanke (£7.5m) and Kai Havertz (£7.9m) look secure for minutes but neither are showing themselves to be talismanic. Not enough for those price tags, anyway.
Q: Who are the best cheap FPL midfielders up to £6.0m?
Q: Is it getting impossible to ignore Amad Diallo (£5.2m)?
(via sankalparora07 and FPL FROST)
A: This Members Area image sorts midfielders up to £6.0m by NPxGI during the last six outings.
Ismaila Sarr’s (£5.7m) numbers leap out, as the winger has finally found his feet at Crystal Palace. He’s scored five goals over the last half-dozen matches, with a large chunk of that expected goal involvement (xGI) coming from Sunday’s win over Brighton.
Encouragingly, he offers a mix of both creativity and goal threat with 1.49 xA (two assists) and 1.90 NPxG (three goals). The Eagles’ fixtures are also about to improve significantly and I think he’s my top pick.
Amongst all midfielders, Sarr is fourth for NPxGI in this time and Enzo Fernandez (£5.1m) sits ninth. That’s why I prefer the Chelsea midfielder to Amad, though both look like better options than Morgan Rogers (£5.4m).
The trip to Manchester City was the first league fixture where Amad was part of a front three rather than at right wing-back. There is still slight uncertainty over whether he can cement that position and, while his versatility bodes well for his minutes, it makes him less attractive than Enzo as an FPL pick.
Across west London, Fulham’s excellent-looking run rotates nicely with Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m), which is a boost to Alex Iwobi (£5.7m).
Q: Should we now hold onto Mbeumo, or is it still worth downgrading him to get Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m)?
(via @FPL_Seagull)
A: With double-digit returns in consecutive Gameweeks, Mbeumo has reminded FPL managers of his quality after a string of blanks and poor underlying numbers.
As Brentford’s fixtures toughen up, I expect more usage of the back three system they used at Stamford Bridge, where Mbeumo is one of the two forwards. It’s also worth noting that their difficult games are all at Gtech Community Stadium and they have the league’s best home record.
He took corners from both sides – even with Mikkel Damsgaard (£5.0m) on the pitch – and is an absolute minutes monster. Playing 90 minutes every week is so invaluable during this busy period.
I think Mbeumo is a keep.
3 months, 16 days agoThe fact that Cunha has until Thursday 19th to respond suggests to me that the PL are primed to reach a conclusion on Friday 20th and probably know already what the length of the ban will be. The video evidence is very conclusive and there are no mitigating factors.
I'll get amazed if he plays v LEI and it drags into next week.